From mainstream media and social networks, we hear about a lot of failures by the Russian military in Ukraine. We also hear that their artillery bombing is overwhelming the Ukrainians because of its quantity (and not its quality). On the other hand, the Russian propaganda channels promote that they are performing extremely well, but their logic is not even self-consistent, so there is not much to believe of what they say. We know that a lot of Russian military is undertrained, but they do have some elite forces whom they deployed in the war against Ukraine. I would like to hear the purely military perspective: how well did/do they perform?
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7" I would like to hear the purely military perspective: how well did/do they perform?" Is this a good fit for a site specialized on politics? What you need is a military analysis site for this question, I think– NoDataDumpNoContributionCommented Aug 15, 2022 at 7:04
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Worse than in Afghanistan, I guess. One can speculate that the (aborted) airlift near Kyiv (Hostomel) was inspired by the similar but successful operation resulting in quick regime change in Kabul in the late 70s.– got trolled too much this weekCommented Aug 15, 2022 at 11:57
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1FWTW one study compared Hostomel with Market Garden mwi.usma.edu/…– got trolled too much this weekCommented Aug 15, 2022 at 12:06
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1 Answer
Russia made large assumptions about their ability to reach Kyiv in 48 hours (another reference). This is so different from that happened later that it really cannot be said they performed anywhere close to expected, even if the winner is not clear yet.
At the end of April, Kherson still was the only Ukrainian provincial capital to have fallen. Also Kherson later has been taken back.
Looks like as of the beginning of the 2023, the Russian army has been stopped at Bakhmut, fighting a bloody battle there but unable to proceed any further.
answered Aug 14, 2022 at 20:39
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2Proof is in the pudding. With the number of VDV and Spetsnaz-type troops deployed, if they were as hot as claimed, Kiev would now be flying 🇷🇺 flags, not 🇺🇦. The battle for Hostomel was especially bad. BBC has some coverage of 331 Reg Paratroops and again. One thing War on the Rocks said is that soldiers are elite for the context they have been trained in: paratroops are good at airborne assault, not necessarily urban combat. Commented Aug 14, 2022 at 21:10
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2"Russian commanders made large assumptions about their ability to reach Kyiv in 48 hours." Can you give a reference to any russian comander saing that? And what is more important when was such statement made?– convertCommented Aug 17, 2022 at 13:31
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2@convert This is by Henrik Paulsson, a professor in the department of war studies at the Swedish Defense University. It can be found in the first linked reference of the answer. Commented Aug 17, 2022 at 16:40
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2@convert "is Henrik Paulsson a russian commander?". No, but let's run with your Q for a second. When Russia landed paratroops in Hostomel, an airport next to Kiev, at the very start of the war, what do you think their expectations were to link up by land? 48h? 96h? Paratroops can't hold out long at all against heavier weaponry, so they need to be relieved very quickly. Hence the conclusion that yes, landing them by Kiev meant you needed to link up with them with 2-3 days at most, if you're not a stark raving mad commander. So, unless you claim they made a navigation error... Commented Aug 19, 2022 at 7:00
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1@Italian Philosophers 4 Monica What do I think is just my opinion and belongs on some discusion forum but not here. My question was about who from russian oficials have made a statement about ability to reach Kyiv in 48 hours. Making conclusions from that paratroops operation is still a speculation.– convertCommented Aug 20, 2022 at 11:20