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Reading the Western press, the People's Republic of China (from hereon China) regularly threatens military brimstone and hellfire if the Republic of China (Taiwan) dares to declare independence. However, an acquaintance recently pointed out that if you read the actual wording of the threats, they are always couched in terms of fending off an attack on Taiwan, and if you see anything claiming otherwise, it's probably misquoting or editorializing. In other words, they're not directed against Taiwan itself, but against unspecified "invaders", "anyone who splits Taiwan from China", etc. A few recent examples, emphasis mine:

“We have the determination and ability to mount a painful direct attack against any invaders who would wreck unification of the motherland, and would show no mercy.” -NYT

"If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost” -Al Jazeera

This old article from 2000 describes China's position as follows, but provides no direct link:

Previously, China suggested that force would be used only in the event of a foreign invasion of the island, or a declaration of independence by Taiwan. But now the threat has been extended to apply if Taipei indefinitely maintains its refusal to hold talks on unifying the two governments, under Beijing's leadership.

So: has China ever unambiguously stated that it will invade if Taiwan declares independence? Bonus points for citations to sources either in Chinese, or from a Chinese government publication in English.

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    Taiwan ROC, formerly Formosa, regards itself as the legitimate successor government of mainland China, continuous with the pre-1947 governments. The question of it 'declaring independence' from PRC therefore does not arise. Similarly, the DDR always laid claim to be the whole state of Germany, which is why a constitution amendment wasn't required on reunification.
    – user207421
    Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 0:24
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    @user207421 That's the status quo, but there's an independence movement on Taiwan that wants to ditch the legal fiction and declare that the ROC is an independent entity separate from mainland China, and this is what the PRC is very much opposed to. Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 1:17

2 Answers 2

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And inevitably, immediately after posting my question, I stumbled onto the full English text of China's Anti-Secession Law of 2015 (反分裂国家法). Article 8 reads:

In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, orthat possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Original Chinese:

“台独”分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式造成台湾从中国分裂出去的事实,或者发生将会导致台湾从中国分裂出去的重大事变,或者和平统一的可能性完全丧失,国家得采取非和平方式及其他必要措施,捍卫国家主权和领土完整。

In other words, yes, if "Taiwan independence secessionist forces ... cause Taiwan's secession from China", China will "employ non-peaceful means" (read: military force) against Taiwan.

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    Note that "Taiwan" is just it's nickname. The formal name for that country is The Republic of China. Taiwan legally considers itself to be the legal government of the whole of China. China's formal name on the other hand is The People's Republic of China. The Republic of China has always considered the People's Republic to be an illegal rebel government of the country that it does not yet have the power to defeat. Of course, this is the legal interpretation. I'm not sure if the citizens actually view it this way
    – slebetman
    Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 1:01
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    @slebetman The PRC legislation above uses the term "Taiwan" (台湾). Of course, this is precisely because they don't recognize the legitimacy of the ROC. Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 1:14
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    @slebetman Isn't that the whole problem -- they both consider themselves the legitimate "China"? Although it seems like Taiwan would be content to be an independent nation -- they haven't taken any recent actions that suggest they want to take over PRC, and just want China to let them be.
    – Barmar
    Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 14:06
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    @uhoh The second one seems to mirror my intuition.
    – Barmar
    Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 20:23
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    @reirab "China" here is not the PRC, but the principle of "One China", and the Chinese original uses "split" (分裂), not "secede" (脱离). Commented Aug 8, 2022 at 23:20
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China has published a White Paper on the situation with Taiwan, here is the translation:

The spokesperson of the Taiwan Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was authorized to deliver a speech on the publication of the white paper "The Taiwan Issue and the Cause of Chinese Reunification in the New Era"

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 10th, on August 10th, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was authorized to deliver a speech on the publication of the white paper "The Taiwan Issue and the Cause of China's Reunification in the New Era". The full text is as follows:

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the Information Office of the State Council today issued a white paper on "The Taiwan Issue and the Cause of China's Reunification in the New Era".

In August 1993 and February 2000, the Chinese government published white papers on "The Taiwan Issue and the Reunification of China" and "The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue", respectively, comprehensively and systematically expounding the basic principles and related policies for solving the Taiwan issue. For more than 20 years, especially since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the theory of national unification and the policy towards Taiwan have continued to develop abundantly. General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward a series of important concepts and major policy propositions on the work of Taiwan, forming the overall strategy of the Communist Party of China to solve the Taiwan issue in the new era, and providing a fundamental framework and action plan for the work of Taiwan. However, for a period of time, the authorities of the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan have stepped up their “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, and some external forces have tried their best to engage in “Taiwan-based China” in an attempt to prevent China from achieving complete reunification and the Chinese nation from moving towards a great rejuvenation.

The Communist Party of China unites and leads the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country in their long-term struggle to build a well-off society in an all-round way as scheduled, achieve the first hundred years of struggle goal, and start a new journey to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way and march towards the second hundred years of struggle goal. Realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process, and we are more qualified, confident, and capable of completing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland. The majority of cadres and the masses eagerly look forward to the early completion of the great cause of reunification. The Chinese people at home and abroad and the international community pay great attention to the issue of China's reunification. Embarking on a new journey and facing the new situation, it is necessary to issue a new white paper on national reunification to further reiterate the fact and status quo that Taiwan is a part of China, demonstrate the firm will and strong determination of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese people to pursue the reunification of the motherland, and explain the positions and policies of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese Government to promote the reunification of the motherland in the new era.

The white paper “The Taiwan Issue and the Cause of Chinese Reunification in the New Era” insists on taking Xi Jinping's socialist thought with Chinese characteristics in the new era as the guide, based on the overall situation of the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented changes in the world in a hundred years, and deeply implements the overall strategy of the Communist Party of China to solve the Taiwan issue in the new era, and demonstrates with a large number of historical and legal facts that Taiwan is a part of China. It is unquestionable and cannot be changed, comprehensively summarizes the Communist Party of China's unwavering efforts to promote the complete reunification of the motherland. History, major achievements and valuable experience, deeply criticized the actions and fallacies of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities stepping up their “independence” provocations and the United States stepping up its efforts to play the “Taiwan card”, and systematically expounded the actions and fallacies of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese government in the new era The major political policies and policy propositions for promoting the reunification of the motherland on the new journey clearly clarify the bright prospects for achieving peaceful reunification in accordance with the “one country, two systems”, and fully demonstrate our confidence in achieving the complete reunification of the motherland, our firm determination to oppose the division of "Taiwan independence" and foreign interference, and our unchanging original intention to seek the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Strait.

In the current complicated international situation and the Taiwan Strait situation, the publication of this white paper is conducive to exposing and criticizing the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external forces for colluding and provoking, attempting to harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, obstructing and sabotaging the process of Chinese reunification, and exposing their political nature and sinister intentions. The determination of the Chinese people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unshakable, and the will is as solid as a rock; it is conducive to demonstrating that the Communist Party of China and the Chinese Government are willing to continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and do their best. The position and attitude, to maximize the efforts of compatriots on both sides of the Strait, especially Taiwan compatriots and the international community. Understanding and support; it is conducive to boosting the spirit of the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups determined to pursue national unity, enhancing the confidence and courage of the anti-“independence” forces on the island and overseas to promote unity, and condensing the majestic power to support and promote the reunification of the motherland.

Achieving the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the Strait is not only a blessing for the Chinese nation and the Chinese people, but also for the international community and the people of the world. I hope that the majority of Taiwanese compatriots will firmly stand on the right side of history, be dignified Chinese, seriously think about Taiwan's status and role in national rejuvenation, understand justice and act in accordance with righteousness, resolutely oppose the division of “Taiwan independence” and interference from external forces, and actively participate in the just cause of promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland. I hope that Hong Kong compatriots, Macao compatriots and overseas Chinese will, as always, make new contributions to promoting the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and achieving the peaceful reunification of the motherland. It is hoped that the international community and all countries that have established diplomatic relations with China will abide by the one-China principle, properly handle Taiwan-related issues, understand and support the Chinese people's opposition to the division of “Taiwan independence” and strive to complete the just cause of national reunification.

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    I don't see how this answers the question? Commented Aug 11, 2022 at 10:30
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    @lambshaanxy This is officialy chinese statement about Taiwan.
    – convert
    Commented Aug 13, 2022 at 10:05
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    Does it say somewhere in there that China will or will not invade if Taiwan declares independence? Because I'm not see it. Commented Aug 13, 2022 at 12:03
  • @lambshaanxy In this translation only peacefull solution is mentioned, but in some other use of force is not excluded as the last resort taken under compelling circumstances.
    – convert
    Commented Aug 13, 2022 at 17:47

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