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I am working on adapting variational inference to the recently developed Martingale posterior distributions. The first case, which reduces the VI framework to Gibbs priors, is proving hard to show as a martingale. Specifically, I am trying to form a sequence of $q^*_n$'s where $$q^*_n(\theta) = \frac{\exp(-L(\theta, x)) \pi(\theta)}{\int \exp(-L(\theta, x)) \pi(\theta) \, d\theta}$$ such that it forms a martingale (either normal, sub or super martingale), as new data is imputed. Any ideas?

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  • $\begingroup$ Can you add some refs/links to martingale posteriors? $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 2 at 21:45

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