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10 votes
4 answers
5k views

Conditional expectation for a sum of iid random variables: $E(\xi\mid\xi+\eta)=E(\eta\mid\xi+\eta)=\frac{\xi+\eta}{2}$

I don't really know how to start proving this question. Let $\xi$ and $\eta$ be independent, identically distributed random variables with $E(|\xi|)$ finite. Show that $E(\xi\mid\xi+\eta)=E(\eta\mid\...
kkk's user avatar
  • 171
10 votes
2 answers
51k views

Prove that $EX=E(E(X|Y))$

Prove that $EX=E(E(X|Y))$ I know that I should prove it from definition of conditional distribution and conditional expected value, but I don't know how. I have also looked at theorem("Total ...
Muffy's user avatar
  • 353
10 votes
2 answers
29k views

Proof of the tower property for conditional expectations

Let $Z$ be a $\mathfrak{F}$-measurable random variable with $\mathbb E(|Z|)<\infty$ and let $\mathfrak{H}\subset \mathfrak{G}\subset \mathfrak{F}$. Show that then $\mathbb E(\mathbb E(Z|\mathfrak{...
Epsilondelta's user avatar
10 votes
2 answers
3k views

Conditional expectation with respect to a $\sigma$-algebra

Could someone explain what it is that we are intuitively trying to achieve with the definition? Having read the definition I could do the problems in the section of my book, but I still have no ...
JT1's user avatar
  • 653
10 votes
2 answers
5k views

Conditional expectation as a Radon-Nikodym derivative.

I found the following very nice post yesterday which presented the conditional expectation in a way which I found intuitive; Conditional expectation with respect to a $\sigma$-algebra. I wonder if ...
user avatar
10 votes
1 answer
4k views

Conditional expectation with the condition being a range

I can basically understand condition expectation with the condition being an event or a random variable($E(X|Y=y)$). However, I have a hard time understanding the condition being a range, especially ...
Ding Li's user avatar
  • 213
10 votes
1 answer
392 views

What am I writing when I write $\mathbf X \mid \mathbf Y$?

Suppose $\mathbf X$ is a random variable and $A$ is an event in the same probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal F, \Pr)$. (Formally, $\mathbf X$ is a function on $\Omega$, say $\Omega \to \mathbb R$; $A$...
Misha Lavrov's user avatar
10 votes
2 answers
360 views

Rigorous definitions of probabilistic statements in Machine Learning

In a supervised machine learning setup, one usually considers an underlying measurable space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \Bbb P)$ and random vectors/variables $X:\Omega \rightarrow \Bbb R^n, Y: \Omega \...
John D's user avatar
  • 1,900
10 votes
1 answer
234 views

Exploiting the Markov property

I've encountered the following problem when dealing with short-rate models in finance and applying the Feynman-Kac theorem to relate conditional expectations to PDEs. Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\{\...
JohnSmith's user avatar
  • 1,524
10 votes
0 answers
802 views

Conditional expectation continuous in the conditioning argument?

Let $X$ and $Y$ be random vectors defined on a common probability space. $X$ takes values in a finite-dimensional space $\mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R}^p$, while $Y$ takes values in $\mathbb{R}$. The ...
EconometricsPerson's user avatar
9 votes
2 answers
8k views

Conditional expectation of random variable given a sum

Let $(X_i)_{i\geq1}$ i.i.d in $\mathcal{L}^1(\Omega,\mathcal{F},p)$ Is it true that $E(X_j|\sum_{i=1}^nX_i)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ For each $j$ where $1\leq j \leq n$. I think it is true, ...
Daniel Ordoñez's user avatar
9 votes
3 answers
768 views

Expectation of X increases when conditioning on X being greater than another independent random variable Y?

I'm doing research and for a proof I need the smaller result that for X, Y random, independent (but not identical) variables we have $$\mathbb{E}\left[X|X>Y\right] \geq \mathbb{E} \left[X\right]$$ ...
bronksi's user avatar
  • 91
9 votes
1 answer
1k views

Intuition for Conditional Expectation

It seems like NNT aka Nero in The Black Swan (2007) is giving the law of iterated expectations that involve filtrations in a heuristic way by matching the everyday usage of the word 'expect' with the ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 13.7k
9 votes
2 answers
2k views

Existence of regular conditional distribution of random variable given the value of another variable

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, \mathbf{P})$ be a probability space with a measurable function $Y: (\Omega, \mathcal{A}) \rightarrow (E, \mathcal{E})$ and another measurable function $X: (\Omega, \mathcal{...
Stephan's user avatar
  • 93
9 votes
2 answers
426 views

If $Y\sim\mu$ with probability $p$ and $Y\sim\kappa(X,\;\cdot\;)$ otherwise, what's the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$?

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal A,\operatorname P)$ be a probability space $(E,\mathcal E)$ be a measurale space $\mu$ be a probability measure on $(E,\mathcal E)$ $X$ be an $(E,\mathcal E)$-valued random ...
0xbadf00d's user avatar
  • 13.9k

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