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This exercise is from J.F Le Gall GTM294, Measure theory, probability and stochastic processes.

Let $a,b\in(0,\infty)$, $(X,Y)$ be a random variable with values in $\mathbb{Z_+}\times \mathbb{R}_+$, whose distribution is characterized by the below formula

$$ \mathbb{P}(X=n, Y\le t) = b\int_0^t \frac{(ay)^n}{n!}exp(-(a+b)y)dy, $$

the question is

  1. Compute $P(X=n)$ for every $n\in \mathbb{Z}_+$
  2. Determine the conditional distribution of Y knowing X
  3. Compute $\mathbb{E}[\frac{Y}{X+1}]$
  4. Compute the law of $Y$, the conditional distribution of X knowing Y and compute $E[X|Y]$

Here is my solution, for the first question, we just take the limit of the formula as $t\to\infty$, which gives $\frac{b}{a+b}(\frac{a}{a+b })^n$, but its not $0$ when $n=0$, and the form is closed to the pmf of Geometric distribution if $n$ there is $n-1$

For the second qusetion, I don't know how to determine it in a measure theoretic way, with elementary probability, I derive $$ \mathbb{P}(Y\in A|X=n)= \frac{\mathbb{P}(X=n, Y\in A)}{\mathbb{P}(X=n)} $$

after a short calculation I get the conditional distribution of $Y$ knowing $X$ is $\Gamma(X+1,a+b)$. How to use the language of transition kernel to interpret it? The third question is direct from the iterated expectation formula. For the fourth question, I am confused on the case when $X=0$.

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    $\begingroup$ $P[X=0]=\frac b {a+b}$, $P[X=n]=\frac{b}{a+b}(\frac{a}{a+b })^n$ for $n >0$. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 2 at 8:58
  • $\begingroup$ but X is r.v. takes values in the postive integer $\endgroup$
    – Stellaria
    Commented Jul 2 at 9:37
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    $\begingroup$ You canot have random variables $X$ and $Y$ such that $ \mathbb{P}(X=n, Y\le t) = b\int_0^t \frac{(ay)^n}{n!}exp(-(a+b)y)dy, $ if you don't allow the value $0$. Some authors write $\mathbb R_{+}$ for $[0,\infty)$ and $\mathbb Z_{+}$ for $\{0,1,2,...\}$. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 2 at 9:39
  • $\begingroup$ ok, you are right, I check the table of notation, Z+ includes zero. But how to compute the law of X knowing Y? $\endgroup$
    – Stellaria
    Commented Jul 2 at 10:01

2 Answers 2

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The law of $X$ knowing $Y$ can be computed by first finding the law(pdf) of $Y$.

To do that, just sum over $n$ to see that $$P(Y\leq t)=b\int_{0}^{t}e^{-bs}\,ds$$

So the pdf $f_{Y}(t)=be^{-bt}$ (i.e. an exponential variate with parameter $b$)

So the law, $$P(X=n|Y=t)=\frac{P(X=n,Y\in dt)}{f_{Y}(t)}=\frac{(at)^{n}}{n!}e^{-at}$$ which is a Poisson variate with mean $at$. Thus $E(X|Y)=Ya$

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  • $\begingroup$ You are right. BTW, is there any relationship there? Possion, geometric, gamma are related by conditioning this distribution. I am impressed by this wonderful relationship. $\endgroup$
    – Stellaria
    Commented 2 days ago
  • $\begingroup$ Not really. One can get many such interrelations by specifying certain joint distributions (this is called coupling). I have never really used a relation of this sort (via conditioning) though. The main reason being that such a coupling between a exponential and a geometric rarely comes up in applications (as far as I know). The basic point being that a gamma variate itself is not very easy to handle. So it would rarely be of any help to find a coupling of a geometric and exponential distribution to get to a gamma variate and then do analysis. @Stellaria $\endgroup$ Commented 2 days ago
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For the second qusetion, I don't know how to determine it in a measure theoretic way, with elementary probability, I derive $$ \mathbb{P}(Y\in A|X=n)= \frac{\mathbb{P}(X=n, Y\in A)}{\mathbb{P}(X=n)} $$

after a short calculation I get the conditional distribution of $Y$ knowing $X$ is $\Gamma(X+1,a+b)$. How to use the language of transition kernel to interpret it?

In my opinion, the best way to understand the bridge between undergraduate conditional expectation and measure-theoretic conditional expectation is through regular conditional distributions.

In this setting, a probability kernel is a function $\mu: \mathbb{R} \times \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})$ such that $\mu(x, \cdot)$ is a measure for each $x$ and $\mu(\cdot, A)$ is measurable for each $A$. If $X$ and $Y$ are real-valued random variables, then there exists a kernel $\mu$ such that $$ P(Y \in A \mid X) = \mu(X, A) \text{ a.s.} $$ This kernel is unique in the sense that if $\tilde \mu$ is another such kernel, then $\mu(x, \cdot) = \tilde \mu(x, \cdot)$ for $\mu_X$-a.e. $x \in \mathbb{R}$, where $\mu_X$ is the distribution of $X$. Moreover, it has the property that $$ \lim_{\varepsilon \to 0} P(Y \in A \mid X \in (x - \varepsilon, x + \varepsilon)) = \mu(x, A),\tag{1} $$ for $\mu_X$-a.e. $x$. Also, if $P(X = x) > 0$, then $$ P(Y \in A \mid X = x) = \mu(x, A).\tag{2} $$ This kernel $\mu$ is called a regular conditional distribution for $Y$ given $X$. Given $\mu$, we obtain the conditional expectation by $E[Y \mid X] = \int_{\mathbb{R}} y \, \mu(X, dy)$.

In your case, you have already done the elementary calculations to compute (2). This gives you $\mu$, and with that, you can proceed to work in the measure-theoretic setting.

I am not familiar with Le Gall's book, but I suspect at least some, if not all, of these topics are covered there.


Regarding your comment, you can use conditional densities, just as you would in an undergraduate setting where there is no measure theory. The only difference is, here, you are probably expected to justify everything rigorously. In that case, for the fourth question, we could do something like the following.

Let $\nu$ be a regular conditional distribution for $Y$ given $X$. We will use the following, which comes from Equation (1) above: $$ \lim_{\varepsilon \to 0} P(X \in B \mid Y \in (y - \varepsilon, y + \varepsilon)) = \nu(y, B).\tag{3} $$ We calculate that $$ P(X = n \mid Y \in (y - \varepsilon, y + \varepsilon)) = \frac{ b \int_{y - \varepsilon}^{y + \varepsilon} \frac{(au)^n}{n!}e^{-(a+b)u} \, du }{ b \int_{y - \varepsilon}^{y + \varepsilon} e^{-bu} \, du } \to \frac{(ay)^n}{n!}e^{-ay} $$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$. Therefore, $\nu(y, \cdot) = \sum_{n \in \mathbb{Z}_+} \frac{(ay)^n}{n!}e^{-ay} \delta_n$, where $\delta_n$ is the point-mass measure at $n$. In other words, $\nu(y, \cdot)$ is the Poisson distribution with parameter $ay$. From here, we obtain $$ E[X \mid Y] = \int_{\mathbb{R}} x \, \nu(Y, dx) = \sum_{n \in \mathbb{Z}_+} n \frac{(aY)^n}{n!}e^{-aY} = aY. $$ In a non-rigorous undergraduate class, all of this could be done very quickly by pushing around differentials and defining conditional expectations in terms of conditional densities. Presumably, you are expected to add more details, but the same mathematical ideas will get you to the answer.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks, transition kernel or probability kernel are introduced in this book, but i feel difficult when evaluating some conditional probability/expectation. To be precise, I don't know how to find a starting point, like should I first calculate the conditional expectation? or should I just use so called conditional density, etc. $\endgroup$
    – Stellaria
    Commented 2 days ago
  • $\begingroup$ I expanded the answer, as a response to this question. $\endgroup$ Commented yesterday

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