Skip to main content
edited tags
Link
RobPratt
  • 47.3k
  • 3
  • 24
  • 59
Source Link

Probability of card being 7 of diamonds given the card is red

Question: Given the prior probability in hypothesis H The card is the seven of diamonds is 1/52, and then I acquire a piece of evidence E, where E is The card is red what is the posterior?

Answer: $$ \begin{align*} p(H|E) &= \dfrac{p(E|H)p(H)}{p(E|H)p(H)+ p(E|\lnot H)p(\lnot H)}\\ p(H|E) &= \dfrac{1/26 \times 26/52}{1/26 \times 26/52 + 1/26 \times 25/26}\\ p(H|E) &= 0.34\\ \end{align*} $$ This doesn't seem correct since the E is redundant because seven of diamonds is red.