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2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories[a] were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 112th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections.

Predictions on overall outcome

[edit]

These were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.

  • RealClearPolitics.
    • As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.[1]
  • Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times)
    • As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.[2]
  • Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com
    • Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats.[3] Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview.[4] The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62–65 seats.[5]
  • Crystal Ball
    • As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".[6]
  • Charlie Cook
    • On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."[7]
    • In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[8]
  • Rasmussen Reports
    • On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House."[9]
  • Rothenberg Political Report.
    • On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."[10]
    • In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[11]
  • Congressional Quarterly.
    • In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.[12]
    • In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.[13]

Election ratings

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Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe: outcome is nearly certain

The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.

District CPVI Incumbent Previous
result
Cook
November 1, 2010[14]
Rothenberg
November 1, 2010[15]
Sabato
November 1, 2010[16]
RCP
November 1, 2010[17]
CQ Politics
October 28, 2010[18]
NYT
November 1, 2010[19]
538
November 1, 2010[20]
Winner
Alabama 2 R+16 Bobby Bright (D) 51.0% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Martha Roby (R)
Alabama 5 R+12 Parker Griffith (R) (lost renomination) 51.5% D Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Mo Brooks (R)
Arizona 1 R+6 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 55.9% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Paul Gosar (R)
Arizona 3 R+9 John Shadegg (R) (retiring) 54.1% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Ben Quayle (R)
Arizona 5 R+5 Harry Mitchell (D) 53.2% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) David Schweikert (R)
Arizona 7 D+6 Raúl Grijalva (D) 63.3% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Raúl Grijalva (D)
Arizona 8 R+4 Gabby Giffords (D) 54.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Gabby Giffords (D)
Arkansas 1 R+8 Robert Marion Berry (D) (retiring) 100% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Rick Crawford (R)
Arkansas 2 R+5 Vic Snyder (D) (retiring) 76.5% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Tim Griffin (R)
Arkansas 4 R+7 Mike Ross (D) 86.2% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Mike Ross (D)
California 3 R+6 Dan Lungren (R) 49.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Dan Lungren (R)
California 11 R+1 Jerry McNerney (D) 55.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Jerry McNerney (D)
California 18 D+4 Dennis Cardoza (D) 100% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Dennis Cardoza (D)
California 20 D+5 Jim Costa (D) 74.4% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean R (flip) Lean D Lean D Tossup Jim Costa (D)
California 44 R+6 Ken Calvert (R) 49.5% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Ken Calvert (R)
California 45 R+3 Mary Bono (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Mary Bono (R)
California 47 D+4 Loretta Sanchez (D) 69.5% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Loretta Sanchez (D)
Colorado 3 R+5 John Salazar (D) 61.6% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Scott Tipton (R)
Colorado 4 R+6 Betsy Markey (D) 56.2% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Cory Gardner (R)
Colorado 7 D+4 Ed Perlmutter (D) 63.5% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 1 D+13 John Larson (D) 71.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D John Larson (D)
Connecticut 2 D+6 Joe Courtney (D) 65.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 4 D+4 Jim Himes (D) 51.3% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Jim Himes (D)
Connecticut 5 D+2 Chris Murphy (D) 54.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware at-large D+7 Mike Castle (R) (retiring)[b] 61.1% R Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Safe D (flip) John Carney (D)
Florida 2 R+6 Allen Boyd (D) 61.9% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Safe R (flip) Steve Southerland (R)
Florida 8 R+2 Alan Grayson (D) 52.0% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Daniel Webster (R)
Florida 12 R+6 Adam Putnam (R) (retiring) 57.5% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Likely R Dennis A. Ross (R)
Florida 22 D+1 Ron Klein (D) 54.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Lean R (flip) Allen West (R)
Florida 24 R+4 Suzanne Kosmas (D) 57.2% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Sandy Adams (R)
Florida 25 R+5 Mario Díaz-Balart (R) (retiring) 53.1% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R David Rivera (R)
Georgia 2 D+1 Sanford Bishop (D) 68.9% D Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Sanford Bishop (D)
Georgia 8 R+10 Jim Marshall (D) 57.2% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Austin Scott (R)
Georgia 12 D+1 John Barrow (D) 66.0% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D John Barrow (D)
Hawaii 1 D+11 Charles Djou (R) 39.4% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho 1 R+18 Walt Minnick (D) 50.6% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois 8 R+1 Melissa Bean (D) 60.7% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Joe Walsh (R)
Illinois 10 D+6 Mark Kirk (R) (retiring)[b] 52.6% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Bob Dold (R)
Illinois 11 R+1 Debbie Halvorson (D) 58.4% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Adam Kinzinger (R)
Illinois 14 R+1 Bill Foster (D) 57.7% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Randy Hultgren (R)
Illinois 17 D+3 Phil Hare (D) 99.8% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Bobby Schilling (R)
Indiana 2 R+2 Joe Donnelly (D) 67.1% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Joe Donnelly (D)
Indiana 8 R+8 Brad Ellsworth (D) (retiring)[b] 64.7% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Larry Bucshon (R)
Indiana 9 R+6 Baron Hill (D) 57.8% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Todd Young (R)
Iowa 1 D+5 Bruce Braley (D) 64.6% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2 D+7 David Loebsack (D) 57.2% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D David Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 D+1 Leonard Boswell (D) 56.4% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Leonard Boswell (D)
Kansas 3 R+3 Dennis Moore (D) (retiring) 56.4% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Kevin Yoder (R)
Kentucky 3 D+2 John Yarmuth (D) 59.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D John Yarmuth (D)
Kentucky 6 R+9 Ben Chandler (D) 64.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Ben Chandler (D)
Louisiana 2 D+25 Joseph Cao (R) 49.5% R Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Cedric Richmond (D)
Louisiana 3 R+12 Charlie Melançon (D) (retiring)[b] 100% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Jeff Landry (R)
Maine 1 D+8 Chellie Pingree (D) 54.9% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Chellie Pingree (D)
Maine 2 D+3 Mike Michaud (D) 67.4% D Lean D Likely D Safe D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland 1 R+13 Frank Kratovil (D) 49.1% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Andrew P. Harris (R)
Massachusetts 4 D+14 Barney Frank (D) 68.0% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Barney Frank (D)
Massachusetts 5 D+8 Niki Tsongas (D) 100% D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Niki Tsongas (D)
Massachusetts 6 D+7 John F. Tierney (D) 70.4% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D John F. Tierney (D)
Massachusetts 10 D+5 Bill Delahunt (D) (retiring) 100% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup William R. Keating (D)
Michigan 1 R+3 Bart Stupak (D) (retiring) 65.0% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Dan Benishek (R)
Michigan 7 R+2 Mark Schauer (D) 48.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 9 D+2 Gary Peters (D) 52.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Gary Peters (D)
Michigan 15 D+13 John D. Dingell Jr. (D) 70.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D John D. Dingell Jr. (D)
Minnesota 1 R+1 Tim Walz (D) 62.5% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 6 R+7 Michele Bachmann (R) 46.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Michele Bachmann (R)
Minnesota 7 R+5 Collin Peterson (D) 72.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Collin Peterson (D)
Minnesota 8 D+3 Jim Oberstar (D) 67.7% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Safe D Lean D Chip Cravaack (R)
Mississippi 1 R+14 Travis Childers (D) 54.5% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Alan Nunnelee (R)
Mississippi 2 D+12 Bennie Thompson (D) 69.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Bennie Thompson (D)
Mississippi 4 R+20 Gene Taylor (D) 74.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Steven Palazzo (R)
Missouri 3 D+7 Russ Carnahan (D) 66.4% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Russ Carnahan (D)
Missouri 4 R+14 Ike Skelton (D) 65.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Vicky Hartzler (R)
Missouri 5 D+10 Emanuel Cleaver (D) 64.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Nebraska 2 R+6 Lee Terry (R) 51.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Lee Terry (R)
Nevada 2 D+2 Dina Titus (D) 47.4% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Likely R (flip) Joe Heck (R)
New Hampshire 1 Even Carol Shea-Porter (D) 51.7% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Frank Guinta (R)
New Hampshire 2 D+3 Paul Hodes (D) (retiring)[b] 56.4% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Charles Bass (R)
New Jersey 3 R+1 John Adler (D) 52.1% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Lean R (flip) Jon Runyan (R)
New Jersey 6 D+8 Frank Pallone (D) 66.9% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Frank Pallone (D)
New Jersey 12 D+5 Rush Holt Jr. (D) 63.1% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Rush Holt Jr. (D)
New Mexico 1 D+5 Martin Heinrich (D) 55.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Martin Heinrich (D)
New Mexico 2 R+6 Harry Teague (D) 56.0% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Steve Pearce (R)
New Mexico 3 D+7 Ben Ray Lujan (D) 56.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Ben Ray Lujan (D)
New York 1 Even Tim Bishop (D) 58.4% D Tossup Tilt D Likely D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tim Bishop (D)
New York 2 D+4 Steve Israel (D) 66.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Steve Israel (D)
New York 4 D+6 Carolyn McCarthy (D) 64.0% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Carolyn McCarthy (D)
New York 13 R+4 Michael McMahon (D) 60.9% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Michael Grimm (R)
New York 19 R+3 John Hall (D) 58.7% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Nan Hayworth (R)
New York 20 R+2 Scott Murphy (D) 50.2% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Chris Gibson (R)
New York 22 D+6 Maurice Hinchey (D) 64.0% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Maurice Hinchey (D)
New York 23 R+1 Bill Owens (D) 48.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Bill Owens (D)
New York 24 R+2 Mike Arcuri (D) 52.0% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Richard Hanna (R)
New York 25 D+3 Dan Maffei (D) 54.8% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Ann Marie Buerkle (R)
New York 27 D+4 Brian Higgins (D) 74.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Brian Higgins (D)
New York 29 R+5 Vacant 51.0% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Tom Reed (R)
North Carolina 2 R+2 Bob Etheridge (D) 66.9% D Lean D Tilt D Likely D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Renee Ellmers (R)
North Carolina 4 D+8 David Price (D) 63.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D David Price (D)
North Carolina 7 R+5 Mike McIntyre (D) 68.8% D Tossup Tilt D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Mike McIntyre (D)
North Carolina 8 R+2 Larry Kissell (D) 53.0% D Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Larry Kissell (D)
North Carolina 11 R+6 Heath Shuler (D) 62.0% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Heath Shuler (D)
North Carolina 13 D+5 Brad Miller (D) 65.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Brad Miller (D)
North Dakota at-large R+10 Earl Pomeroy (D) 62.0% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Rick Berg (R)
Ohio 1 D+1 Steve Driehaus (D) 52.4% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Steve Chabot (R)
Ohio 6 R+2 Charlie Wilson (D) 62.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Bill Johnson (R)
Ohio 10 D+8 Dennis Kucinich (D) 57.0% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Dennis Kucinich (D)
Ohio 12 D+1 Pat Tiberi (R) 54.8% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Pat Tiberi (R)
Ohio 13 D+5 Betty Sutton (D) 57.0% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Betty Sutton (D)
Ohio 15 D+1 Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 45.9% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Steve Stivers (R)
Ohio 16 R+4 John Boccieri (D) 55.4% D Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Jim Renacci (R)
Ohio 18 R+7 Zack Space (D) 59.9% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D Bob Gibbs (R)
Oklahoma 2 R+14 Dan Boren (D) 70.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Dan Boren (D)
Oregon 1 D+8 David Wu (D) 71.5% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D David Wu (D)
Oregon 4 D+2 Peter DeFazio (D) 82.3% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Peter DeFazio (D)
Oregon 5 D+1 Kurt Schrader (D) 54.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Kurt Schrader (D)
Pennsylvania 3 R+3 Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 51.2% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Mike Kelly (R)
Pennsylvania 4 R+6 Jason Altmire (D) 55.9% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Jason Altmire (D)
Pennsylvania 6 D+4 Jim Gerlach (R) 52.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Safe R Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7 D+3 Joe Sestak (D) (retiring)[b] 59.6% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Pat Meehan (R)
Pennsylvania 8 D+2 Patrick Murphy (D) 56.8% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 10 R+8 Chris Carney (D) 56.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Tom Marino (R)
Pennsylvania 11 D+4 Paul Kanjorski (D) 51.6% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lou Barletta (R)
Pennsylvania 12 R+1 Mark Critz (D) 52.6% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Mark Critz (D)
Pennsylvania 13 D+7 Allyson Schwartz (D) 62.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Allyson Schwartz (D)
Pennsylvania 15 D+2 Charlie Dent (R) 58.6% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Charlie Dent (R)
Pennsylvania 17 R+6 Tim Holden (D) 63.7% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Tim Holden (D)
Rhode Island 1 D+13 Patrick J. Kennedy (D) (retiring) 68.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Safe D Likely D David Cicilline (D)
South Carolina 5 R+7 John Spratt (D) 61.6% D Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Mick Mulvaney (R)
South Dakota at-large R+9 Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 67.6% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Kristi Noem (R)
Tennessee 4 R+13 Lincoln Davis (D) 58.8% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Scott DesJarlais (R)
Tennessee 5 D+3 Jim Cooper (D) 65.9% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Jim Cooper (D)
Tennessee 6 R+13 Bart Gordon (D) (retiring) 74.4% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Diane Black (R)
Tennessee 8 R+6 John Tanner (D) (retiring) 100% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Stephen Fincher (R)
Texas 15 D+3 Rubén Hinojosa (D) 65.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Rubén Hinojosa (D)
Texas 17 R+20 Chet Edwards (D) 53.0% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Safe R (flip) Bill Flores (R)
Texas 23 R+4 Ciro Rodriguez (D) 55.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Quico Canseco (R)
Texas 25 D+6 Lloyd Doggett (D) 65.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lloyd Doggett (D)
Texas 27 R+2 Solomon P. Ortiz (D) 57.9% D Lean D Likely D Safe D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Blake Farenthold (R)
Utah 2 R+15 Jim Matheson (D) 63.4% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Jim Matheson (D)
Virginia 2 R+5 Glenn Nye (D) 52.4% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Scott Rigell (R)
Virginia 5 R+5 Tom Perriello (D) 50.1% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Robert Hurt (R)
Virginia 9 R+11 Rick Boucher (D) 97.1% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Morgan Griffith (R)
Virginia 11 D+2 Gerry Connolly (D) 54.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Gerry Connolly (D)
Washington 2 D+3 Rick Larsen (D) 62.4% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Rick Larsen (D)
Washington 3 Even Brian Baird (D) (retiring) 64.0% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Washington 6 D+5 Norm Dicks (D) 66.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Norm Dicks (D)
Washington 8 D+3 Dave Reichert (R) 52.8% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Dave Reichert (R)
Washington 9 D+5 Adam Smith (D) 65.5% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Tossup Safe D Safe D Likely D Adam Smith (D)
West Virginia 1 R+9 Alan Mollohan (D) (lost renomination) 99.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup David McKinley (R)
West Virginia 3 R+6 Nick Rahall (D) 66.9% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Nick Rahall (D)
Wisconsin 3 D+4 Ron Kind (D) 63.2% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Ron Kind (D)
Wisconsin 7 D+3 Dave Obey (D) (retiring) 60.8% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Sean Duffy (R)
Wisconsin 8 R+2 Steve Kagen (D) 54.0% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Reid Ribble (R)
Overall R - 204
D - 181
50 tossups
R - 223
D - 194
18 tossups
R - 237
D - 198
R - 225
D - 168
43 tossups
R - 199
D - 195
41 tossups
D - 190
R - 174
42 tossups
R - 216
D - 200
19 tossups
R - 242
D - 193

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Not including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Retired to run for senate

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Battle For The House". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
  2. ^ Silver, Nate (October 31, 2010). "The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide". Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
  3. ^ Ishmael, Patrick (October 31, 2010). "Game Time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet". Hot Air. Archived from the original on December 3, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
  4. ^ "What To Look For On Election Night". Rasmussen Reports. November 2, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
  5. ^ Ishmael, Patrick (October 25, 2010). "Eight days out, GOP still poised to gain 60+ House seats". Hot Air. Archived from the original on November 29, 2010. Retrieved November 24, 2010.
  6. ^ "2010 House Ratings". Centerforpolitics.org. November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
  7. ^ Cook Political Report (October 26, 2010). "Cook Political Ups Projected Democratic Losses To 48 to 60". Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  8. ^ "Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook". Outsidethebeltway.com. February 22, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. ^ Scott Rasmussen (November 1, 2010). "A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP". wsj.com. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
  10. ^ "House Ratings". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2010.
  11. ^ Rothenberg, The (April 14, 2010). "The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  12. ^ "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010.
  13. ^ "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on July 10, 2010. Retrieved July 11, 2010.
  14. ^ "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  15. ^ Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 24, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  16. ^ Larry J. Sabato; Isaac Wood (November 1, 2010). "Election Eve Special". centerforpolitics.org/. University of Virginia. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
  17. ^ RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010
  18. ^ "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  19. ^ "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  20. ^ Nate Silver (November 7, 2010). "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com/. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved November 30, 2023.