Microsoft's decision to end support of Windows 10 in October 2025 could mean a massive upgrade cycle for PC makers. However, it could lead to an enormous increase in electronic waste, according to Canalys. About 240 million PCs might become unusable due to compatibility issues with the newer Windows 11. This situation is causing concern, as it might result in many of these older computers ending up in landfills.
The arrival of Windows 11 in late 2021 did not encourage massive PC sales, but the end of Windows 10 support in late 2025 could mark a turning point for the struggling PC market, stimulating customers to upgrade their systems. However, the phasing out of Windows 10 support threatens the usability of numerous existing devices. This shift is poised to affect the market dynamics significantly, with Canalys forecasting market growth of 8% in 2024 as consumers seek to replace older PCs with models compatible with Windows 11 or, potentially, Windows 12.
Multiple key barriers prevent Windows 10-compatible PCs from running Windows 10, including a need for a 64-bit processor listed by Microsoft as a 'supported CPU,' at least 4 GB of RAM, a minimum of 64GB storage, and UEFI firmware with Secure Boot capability instead of the older BIOS. Additionally, a crucial requirement is TPM version 2.0 for enhanced security, which supersedes the TPM 1.2 version supported by some Windows 10 devices. In addition, Windows 11 also demands a DirectX 12-compatible GPU with a WDDM 2.x driver, which leaves out many older iGPUs. Many systems are still running outdated CPUs and using BIOS instead of UEFI with no SecureBoot support.
Canalys believes that a staggering 240 million PCs do not comply with Windows 11's requirements and are set to be rendered obsolete by Windows 10's October 14, 2025 support deadline. While recycling remains a viable option for these systems, the lack of compatibility with the latest Windows iteration significantly devalues them, making refurbishment less feasible. Consequently, despite growing capabilities in the refurbishment sector, many of these devices are still destined for landfills. This situation highlights a critical challenge in managing and disposing of electronic waste, Canalys believes.
In response to these concerns, Microsoft has announced the availability of Extended Security Updates for Windows 10 until October 2028, albeit at a cost. This move, mirroring previous strategies for Windows 7 and Windows 8.1, offers a temporary reprieve for users of older PCs. However, the anticipated expense of these updates may deter many from opting for this solution, pushing them towards newer, Windows 11-compatible devices.
The scenario underscores a broader responsibility among manufacturers and software developers to design products with longer life cycles. Canalys believes emphasizing durability, repairability, and recyclability is crucial to reducing e-waste. This approach, combined with longer-term software support, can significantly extend the usable life of devices, fostering a more sustainable and circular economy in the technology sector. However, the lack of regulatory mandates in this area, unlike the upcoming EU regulations for smartphones and tablets, leaves much of this responsibility on industry players who are struggling to sell more devices.
