The "White Collar Recession"

https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-high-pay-employees-labor-economy-finding-work-2024-4

Google the term and you'll start to see an emerging undercurrent of grim economic news. I'm sure this will be an unpopular and unwelcome opinion but I think it's worth delving in to, so please indulge me for a moment. I also realize for many, I'm reporting that "rain is wet", but I'm actually offering this opinion up to those who may be chasing some rainbows and perhaps not leveraging all of the tools at their disposal. I feel this situation warrants breaking out everything in the tool bag, and maybe even acquiring tools you haven't used yet.

As I've pointed out before, this is a recession in just a portion of the job market, namely $100k plus professional jobs. By my reckoning it started in tech, and the contagion spread to banking, media and other volatile sectors. But who knows which is the chicken and which is the egg here. The important thing is to realize its real, its happening.

The concern for white-collar workers is it leaves them with very few choices. Deemed by some employers to be "overqualified" for lower paying jobs requiring less experience, many seem reluctant to take a risk on these highly skilled people. It also leaves many in a desert of assistance with a historical income too high to qualify for social safety nets, but still responsible for mortgages and higher bills amassed in better times (see linked article).

Which also brings us to the other concern economists have: consumers are highly leveraged right now, which leaves the entire economy at risk of more contagion. Wealthier defaulters on debt will cause even more issues in banking, and credit may continue to tighten uncomfortably for businesses.

Now some seem to think this is a typical downturn in which companies have simply shed low-performing dead weight. This couldn't be further from the truth. I personally know several people who would hire me in a heartbeat if they only had suitable positions. Why? Because I'm known for being an extremely high-performing employee. I know several other people thrown out on to the market who were excellent employees with strong performance - these were in many different professions including sales, software engineering, IT support, infosec, and yes, recruiting among others too many to list here. They were let go not because they were dead weight; it was because they were above a certain line of income, and it was the expedient way for companies to shed cost as quickly as possible. Although there are undoubtedly low performers who lost their jobs as well, this was no regular house-cleaning. This was an abrupt realization that payrolls were going to cost companies dearly and they didn't have the incoming business to absorb the cost. When leadership is faced with the ugly choice between saving valued employees and the salvation of the business itself, of course they'll choose the business. Therefore, the labor market is now full of high-performing, highly skilled workers who are probably much more flexible in their compensation requirements right now.

If you've made it this far reading this entry, you're probably thinking I'm wearing one of those doom and gloom sandwich boards on the street corner. It's not about that at all. See, I'm a firm believer in knowing and understanding the battlefield you land in. There are some who predict rosy soft-landing scenarios are nigh, and the rebound for white collar jobs is right around the corner. I think this is dangerous to believe right now (although I'd absolutely love to be proven wrong, along with a few business journalists and economists). I'm not saying raise the white collar flag - quite the opposite. This is a call to all similar job-seekers to embrace the reality of the situation. Re-double your efforts, get outside of your comfort zone, contact new and different potential employers in new and different ways. Market yourself without spamming and looking desperate. Be flexible on compensation, and although this might be very difficult for some, maybe even consider flexibility on other factors like remote vs hybrid or on-site. Get back in there.

And above all, network. Your network is more likely to pay off than applying blind to strangers. Consider this: the market is saturated with applicants. Applicant tracking systems are filled to the brim with recent job-seekers, some of whom companies have already done some interviews with. This means new applicants are largely superfluous at the moment while they work through this backlog. This doesn't mean stop applying, but it does mean you need to augment and amplify your presence with your network.

How, you ask? Firstly, I think one of the worst ways to do this is to spam your friends and family so that they start ignoring you. Swim, don't drown. Post articles, re-post the thoughts of others, keep your name in front of your network in a positive way. Market your talents in the process. Show off your communication skills, provide meaningful input, research and relay your thoughts, talk about best practices and values.

It's a tough time right now for people with white collar skills, but those skills also arm you to deal with adversity and ambiguity. Keep trying, don't walk toward mirages, don't drown in self-pity and desperation. Keep moving forward purposefully each day with an eye toward innovating your approach. I'm doing the same.

Good luck and happy hunting out there - may employers and candidates find each other swiftly.