Wojtek Dabrowski’s Post

An interesting ripple is reverberating through the AI bubble right now: shares of Nvidia, that unstoppable behemoth of computing, are down 11 pct over the last five trading days after their blazing run. Nvidia has about 30,000 employees give or take, which means each accounts for more than $110 MILLION in market cap. Maybe it’s just a pause for breath before the run up resumes. Or maybe the realization is dawning that to justify its valuation, Nvidia would have find another market like AI and dominate it to the exact same extent. As the Economist wrote recently, “The combined market value of Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft has jumped by $2.5 trillion during the AI boom. [That] is 120 times the $20 billion in revenue that generative AI is forecast to add to the cloud giants’ sales in 2024.” 120x revenue? That’s like the dot com boom on steroids, which didn’t end well. Sure sounds like the sector is getting ahead of itself, but surely history can’t repeat itself, like it has every other time? This time is different … right?

Oh, Canada. Today, a new report from Food Banks Canada suggests as many as one in four Canadians could now be living in poverty, unable to afford essentials. Our economy is now smaller than that of Texas. We now have a much larger federal public service than most industrialized countries. Crime, both violent and property, is up significantly in most large Canadian cities. The number of Canadians leaving the country for the US is now the at a decade high. As someone else wrote on here recently (sorry, can’t find the name), it’s a solid fact that living in Canada demands the hard work of the US, but without the resulting productivity and wealth, and comes with high taxes like in Europe but without the same levels of public services. Perhaps that’s simplistic, but the thing about truisms is that they tend to be at least a little true. In the last couple of months, friends and colleagues have called Canada a “raw deal” or a “bad trade,” something I almost never used to hear in the past. The knocking on Canada bothers me - I still think it’s got the potential to be one of the world’s great countries, and I’m raising three children here. But the numbers don’t lie, and they’re telling a rather grim tale right now. I don’t see how anyone can deny change is needed, and fast.

A few basic observations over my career in organizations that worked well and those that didn’t: Berating junior employees isn’t “tough feedback.” It’s most often a lack of discipline and self control, and sometimes it’s straight up emotional abuse. You’re not “customer focused” if you don’t support or care about your employees. Your employees deliver for customers, and if they don’t matter to you, you’ll have a tough time keeping customers too. Baselessly promising people promotions and salary increases isn’t “development.” It’s cronyism, and nothing makes your A players run away faster than your promoting of C players. Toxicity isn’t the same as being “performance-driven.” I hear this excuse a lot - “I’m not toxic, just focused on driving results.” That’s bullshit. It’s a person who feels out of control with respect to their own career and is taking it out on someone else. Every business is a people business. If you want to hire good talent that will help you grow, you have to accept this very plain truth. And if you don’t like people? Don’t start a business.

This is Eisenhower, instructing paratroopers before the D-Day invasion in June 1944. The ultimate order was simple - full victory, nothing else, against a well-trained, battle-hardened enemy. I turn to this image whenever I think about adversity and the comparatively mild problems I face in my daily life. These soldiers pushed into the proverbial dragon’s lair with incredible bravery and a willingness to make the ultimate sacrifice to protect the free people of the world. Consider their courage the next time you face hardship. Consider their selflessness and determination to protect children they would never see and men and women whose hands they’ll never shake from the tyranny of fascist oppression. But above all, let us never forget.

A recent business trip to London and Dublin reminded me of the importance of being a little selfish during work travel. Finding even an hour of free time to walk in a city that isn’t your home can do wonders for reflection, goal setting and prioritizing your future. These trips are never dull, and they’re also never easy - you’re often working around the clock and then some - but if you can wedge some time for you into your schedule, you can get a lot more value out of them. Being physically far away from home creates instant perspective and distance from thorny problems you might be wrestling with either at home or at work and lets you do some deep thinking about what truly matters - from a distance. Next time you travel for work, try it - your mind and spirit will thank you.

As someone who has media-trained CEOs of airlines, tech companies, banks, insurance firms and everything in between, I'm still surprised when leaders balk at the need for training ahead of an interview with a journalist. Reporters aren't "out to get you" but there is a world of difference between conveying a few key messages and really telling the story you want to tell, whether it's about you, your company or some journey or transformation that you're currently undertaking. Media training is a core part of the strategic communications toolkit that any CEO ought to have in their possession. Along with communications planning and strategy, executives need to know how to successfully execute an interview, impact and influence the conversation and ensure the best possible outcome for their stakeholders. To use a clumsy analogy, going to a media interview without training is like getting behind the wheel without a driver's licence - dangerous and unpredictable. Whether it's in-house or outsourced, leaders shouldn't sleep on the opportunity to sharpen their interview skills. Even as someone who's spent a decade of his career as a daily business journalist and another as a communications executive, I still routinely prep and train ahead of most media appearances. Key question: would you rather be a little uncomfortable while rehearsing and training, or would you rather fly by the seat of your pants in a media interview, with your stock price, reputation and personal brand on the line?

Real question I received from a senior leader of a large Canadian enterprise this week: “Does having a crisis communications plan actually matter in a crisis?” It made me smile - crisis communications has been the bread and butter of my career. But I didn’t want to be flippant. So I decided I’d do a bit of research for him. Companies, especially large ones with big risk management departments, intellectually grasp the need for preparedness. After all, it’s just a matter of time before something somewhere in your business goes bad enough to cause a crisis. But what about quantitative proof? Turns out there is a significant amount of data that can show you whether it’s worthwhile or not to get a plan in place and, importantly, to test that plan from time to time. Here’s a few key stats: Firms with crisis management plans see 50% lower financial losses from a crisis compared to those without (Deloitte Crisis Management Survey 2022). Companies that manage crises effectively see their stock prices recover 20% faster than those that do not (Oxford Metrica, 2022). Organizations with crisis communications plans resolve crises 40% faster than those without (PwC Global Crisis Survey 2023). 60% of customers are more loyal to a brand that effectively communicates during a crisis (KPMG Global CEO Outlook 2022). Companies without crisis management plans can incur costs up to 4 times higher than those with plans in place (BCG Crisis Management Report 2023). 65% of stakeholders are more confident in a company's leadership if it has a robust crisis communications strategy (Accenture 2022). To me the verdict is and has always been simple: Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

It’s been almost two years since we sold Provident and as the anniversary approaches I’ve been thinking about what got us from zero revenue and me with a laptop to a multimillion dollar strategic comms firm with 10 people representing some of the biggest brands in the world. There was persistence - In the first months, I cold called the heads of communications at every Fortune 100 company. I got zero replies. There were relationships - my first major client was a former employer that happened to be a global life co with $1 trillion in assets. Former bosses made introductions to new clients, lawyer partners on old files made new ones happen. Happy clients opened new doors, and so on. There was hard work - we were able to charge high fees because our work product was excellent and consistently delivered on time. We were proud of this, and told our clients so. There was teamwork - pretty quickly your individual scale runs out and if you want to grow, you need other great people. I was lucky to find many at the right time. There was resilience - there were weeks early on and even two years in when I didn’t know how I’d make payroll. My first partner bailed on me (though I smile when I think about the payday he unfortunately missed out on). I chewed metaphoric glass and always asked for seconds, and I focused on what I could control. No money? Credit line. No partner? Find new ones. Above all, me and everyone else at Proivdent just kept going and kept showing up. Most of the time, it was delightful and joyous. Sometimes it was stressful and other times it plain old sucked. But we kept rolling. Wouldn’t trade in the experience for anything in the world. 💯

One of the last pieces of business we won at Provident before we sold the business was a wide-ranging mandate with Irving Oil and its family owners. In 2022, Morgan McLellan and I flew out to Boston and met with Arthur, his wife and their daughter, all extremely principled and thoughtful titans of Canadian industry. We listened as Arthur retraced the history of the Irving family's many contributions to Canada and the US, and watched as one of the company's oil tankers pulled into Boston Harbour. Throughout the meeting, I couldn't help but be awed by the massive impact one family was able to have on hundreds of thousands of people, and their desire to do the right thing as the world's energy needs entered a significant period of transition and change. We never got the chance to work on Irving as Provident was sold just a couple months later. Today, my condolences go out to the Irving family for their loss.