United Bank’s Post

With the employment report set to be released this week, what impact do you anticipate on Federal Reserve policy and how are you advising clients to position themselves in anticipation of potential rate cuts? Join me as I dissect this week's market dynamics and what they mean for your clients in our latest market update.

Last week, I gave opening remarks on the first day of the Federal Reserve's Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market Conference, presented by Fed Communities. “An economy that works for everyone,” the Atlanta Fed’s tagline, is one that features a labor market in which everyone can maximize their human capital and potential and find work commensurate with that potential. I believe that refining our understanding of maximum employment matters in part because, unlike the price stability part of the Fed’s dual mandate, maximum employment evolves with changing economic circumstances. This conference is an excellent example of the role the Federal Reserve can play in bringing together research, policy, and practice on these issues and connecting people who might otherwise not meet. These convenings can be incredibly powerful in moving us forward, toward better understanding and addressing uneven outcomes in labor markets. Thank you to the organizers from the Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. To hear my full remarks or read a transcript, visit https://atlfed.org/48xsx6x

Highlights from the post, but if you really want to understand this you need to watch Carson Gorecki in NE MN and Anthony Schaffhauser in the West. These brilliant minds can tell you a lot more about what the data means for you. “Most of June's job losses came from the Leisure and Hospitality for supersector, which shed 5,300 positions on a seasonally adjusted basis. After an atypical surge in hiring to meet high consumer demand coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector's employment is showing signs of returning to a more sustainable level. Despite this month's job loses, the supersector has created more than 14,200 jobs over the year. Other notable details from today's jobs report include: Seven supersectors in Minnesota gained jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis since last month, including: Government, which gained 2,200 jobs and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, which gained 1,200 jobs. In addition to Leisure and Hospitality, two supersectors lost jobs over the month: Professional & Business Services lost 2,500 jobs, and Manufacturing lost 2,300 jobs. All but one supersector posted positive over the year growth in Minnesota. Notable supersectors experienced annual growth that outpaced the nation: Education & Health Services led with the largest growth, up 24,090 jobs (up 4.5% vs. 4.2% nationally); Leisure & Hospitality continued posting big growth, up 14,212 jobs (5.2% vs. 4.7% nationally); and Government was up 12,788 jobs (up 3.1% vs. 2.8%). Every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in Minnesota gained jobs over the year, with the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA leading with the highest number of total number of jobs added, up 45,105 positions, or 2.3%. The Mankato MSA is leading with the highest rate of job growth, up 3,576 positions, or 6.5%.”

We break down the rollicking, economy-affirming week and the probability of a March rate cut. Plus, the latest conspiracy theory spreading through the Republican party (Taylor's Version). Read the full report to learn more about: 👉The historic impeachment vote of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas 👉A potential Senate deal on border policies 👉And how Taylor Swift is making news by angering the Republican Party "Shake it Off" https://hubs.la/Q02jVBxQ0

We break down the rollicking, economy-affirming week and the probability of a March rate cut. Plus, the latest conspiracy theory spreading through the Republican party (Taylor's Version). Read the full report to learn more about: 👉The historic impeachment vote of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas 👉A potential Senate deal on border policies 👉And how Taylor Swift is making news by angering the Republican Party "Shake it Off" https://hubs.la/Q02jVFkw0

We break down the rollicking, economy-affirming week and the probability of a March rate cut. Plus, the latest conspiracy theory spreading through the Republican party (Taylor's Version). Read the full report to learn more about: 👉The historic impeachment vote of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas 👉A potential Senate deal on border policies 👉And how Taylor Swift is making news by angering the Republican Party "Shake it Off" https://hubs.la/Q02jVv9s0

Take the over in tomorrow's employment report. NFP likely will print at an above-consensus 225K or better. The jobless rate, in contrast to the Street's expectation of an uptick to 3.8%, could print at 3.6% or lower. The only thing that may come in soft is average hourly earnings due to the establishment period failing to span the 15th of the month.

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In the fabled lands of the Lone Star State, wise men turn their gaze upon the mysterious runes of Future Capacity Utilization (CAPU) Rates. They whisper of ominous signs, as the yellow strands of fate reveal a destiny one to two standard deviations below the norm, a tale that has lasted for 14 months since June of 2022. The left tail of CAPU occupation, nearly twice as long lasting as it was during the Great Recession’s eight-month stretch, foretells a time of challenge and change. The runes of employment, too, bear a darker hue, more trick than treat. From the August cycle’s unrounded low of 3.72%, the unemployment rate has risen, a shadow growing longer, to 4.13% in September, its tale told by the inverted purple line. As the laws of Texas dictate, 60 days of severance gold must be paid, and so the WARN notices, the messengers of change, bear names of enterprises like Bob Evans, David’s Bridal, Ventra Health, Vibra Hospital of Dallas, Ericsson, FedEx, Yellow Trucking, Compass Group, Regal Rexnord, PSW Real Estate, Tata Consultancy, Babylon, Honeywell International, Wayforth, Appfolio, and S&B Plant Services. Such is a chronicle of what is to come in the October Nonfarm Payrolls report. #economy #recession #employment H/T QuillIntelligence

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