Bob Elliott’s Post

Great to join the Alt Funds Network recently for this interesting conversation ranging from how I got started in macro to what drove me to start Unlimited and what it takes to be a startup manager. Check it out! https://lnkd.in/eCNM_wzX

This is an income driven expansion, and softening labor markets and slowing income growth point to softening ahead, just at the time when expectations are for very strong growth to continue. https://lnkd.in/ebPnbJ5E

Low-cost, tax efficient hedge fund index replication outperforms individual manager selection 9/10 times. More here: https://lnkd.in/estqTP27

Getting the kind of soft landing that is priced into markets requires a significant rise in the pace of productivity growth. So far there is no indication that AI is providing anything close to that support. https://lnkd.in/esPyZybf

The challenge with any individual hedge fund investment is that there is an incredibly wide range of possible performance outcomes. With manager outperformance persistence no better than random chance, concentrated HF positions are more like gambling than prudent allocation.

The push to reshore production is both inflationary and support to growth. https://lnkd.in/eea_2zCJ

$BXMDX has ~4bln in AUM and charges 339bps in annual fees. The results are clear: bottom quartile returns & negative alpha. At least the managers making more on the assets than the investors. There are better solutions out there.

Having a 2H24 outlook call on Thur at 415pm ET. If the short videos aren't enough for you, try out our longer format conversation. Sign up to ask questions ahead of time (which I often answer!). https://lnkd.in/e77ufiz5

Services inflation is elevated because nominal wages are outpacing the productivity growth of labor. Until either of those things change meaningfully, services inflation will remain elevated. And hard to achieve the Fed's mandate without it slowing. https://lnkd.in/e6X2itEb

The vast majority of hedge funds do not have a hurdle rate for performance despite cash rates above 5%. No wonder the fees are too damn high. https://lnkd.in/e5MQ4AtD