I've spent the past week feeding political literature into Democracy 4 to see what would happen if the Conservatives, Labour, or the Liberal Democrats won the election. Spoilers: it doesn't end well... While no simulation can capture the true complexity of the social, economic, and political situation, it's fascinating to see how a game can reveal just how big a challenge we face in the next five years and how small some of the proposals in the parties' manifestos are when faced with that reality. (Is this article a barely veiled way to justify how much time I spend listening to politics podcasts and reading 24-hour news sites? No comment.)
Julian Benson’s Post
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How November 5 kills perfectly good bi-partisan bills At ECR Research and ICC Consultants BV we've been discussing whether the upcoming US elections will result in loose fiscal policies in the coming quarters in order for Biden to increase his re-election chances. Of course, the power of the purse is in the hands of Congress and electoral calculations are now part of every bill under consideration in the House and Senate. Noah Smith quotes US senator Grassley about a bipartisan bill that gives money to poor families and fixes problems with the corporate tax code: “'I think passing a tax bill that makes the president look good — may allow checks before the election — means that he can be reelected and then we won’t extend the 2017 tax cuts,' Grassley said.” Smith continues with a worrying analysis, but ends on an upbeat note: "this kind of thinking is poison for any democracy. If the opposition party always thinks it can unseat the incumbent by making people worse off, it will be the citizenry who suffers...But the fact that the House Republicans didn’t think this way should be encouraging. They were willing to pass a good policy, regardless of whether it would help Biden or not." https://lnkd.in/eVTtWkXF #uspolitics #elections2024 #politics #politicalrisk #uscongress #joebiden
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#27)
noahpinion.blog
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As we edge closer to an election year, we're bound to be bombarded with an avalanche of information. 📰 How do we navigate this sea of data and discern the credible sources from the not-so-reliable ones? 🤔 It's crucial to challenge the 'both-sides' framing that's often perceived as the benchmark of objectivity or non-bias. This approach tends to create an equivalence where only two positions on an issue are in contention, overlooking the fact that there could be more than two perspectives on various issues. 🔄 It's essential to consider the stakes. If we're talking about the election and its implications for democracy, it becomes clear what's at stake. We need to examine the track record of the candidates, understand our commitments, and let these factors shape our understanding of their intentions. In this way, we can make informed decisions and contribute to a healthier democracy. 🗳️ Repost this if you found it beneficial in understanding how to navigate the upcoming election year with a clear and informed perspective. Listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/ge8-BHmF Pick up my new book, Cancel The Filter: Realities of a Psychologist, Podcaster, and Working Mother of Color here on Amazon! https://amzn.to/3sSRL0e With: Juliet Hooker #ElectionYear #CredibleSources #DemocracyStakes
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#economics #federalreserve #unitedstates The Federal Reserve System, under delegated authority of the United States Congress under the Federal Reserve Act (FRA), is: (1) The monopoly supplier of money to the domestic U.S. economy in response to changing domestic macroeconomic conditions, with the objective of growing the monetary value of the economy at all times, meaning there is a proportionality relationship between the growth rate of fiat money in circulation in the economy at any given time and the growth rate of the economy. (2) Ensures moderate long term interest rates are maintained by buying and selling a mix of Treasury bonds of varying maturities or government debt in exchange for cash. (3) Conducts monetary operations so that your check can be cashed or deposited at a bank and money can be transferred between financial institutions. (4) Supervises banks in compliance with relevant federal statutes. (5) The lender of last resort in the event of bank failures and very rarely in response to broader economic failure of private firms under extenuating economic circumstances and extraordinary interpretation of the FRA. (6) Maintains stable prices using the money supply tools at its disposal such as the equilibrium interest rate in the market for supply and demand for cash and the quantity of money at any time in the money market. (7) Ensures maximum employment. The Fed, is a weak institution, and can only be held accountable for what it is responsible for under law (Items 1-7 above). At all times, to maintain stable prices, maximum employment, and moderate long term interest rates, the Fed’s triple Congressional mandate, the Fed hopes and prays that if it pours new, freshly printed, cash at the top of the funnel it will lead to investment and create jobs, what types of investment or types and quality of jobs it cannot say, and if it retracts money by literally burning old cash, the economy will slow down and lose jobs. The Fed has no control over how: (1) Firms make decisions on wages. Hence, no control over income distribution or rising income inequality which the attached CNN report alludes to. (2) Firms set prices. (3) Households spend and save or their balance sheets. Hence, no control over the inflation process. (3) Firms make investment decisions such as fossil fuels v. green energy or infrastructure renewal in #bidenomics. (4) Firms hire and fire workers. Talk to your member of Congress and The White House for everything (Items 1-4 above) the Fed is not accountable for.
Jackson Hole: Fed policy collides with reality in the most unequal county in America (CNN)
smartnews.com
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#economics #federalreserve #unitedstates The US economy is, by design, supply side, meant for businesses to regulate the economy, not for the central bank to regulate businesses and, thereby, the economy. Uncoordinated decisions by multiple firms in the marketplace engaged in a variety of production activities in pursuit of their self-interest such as profit and shareholder return cause the business cycle to which the Fed re-acts, not pro-acts. The Fed is struggling to model the US economy. There has been considerable handwringing and anxiety about its FRBUS model which is a vector auto regression (VAR) linear regression econometric model. It has not changed in decades. The reality of any free market economy is that it is a system of individual and interdependent agents with stocks and flows and feedback loops, not a linear multivariate system of equations. [See not MIT Department of Economics but the canonical text book Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, by John D. Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, and the current director of the MIT System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, https://a.co/d/btJln3T].
#economics #federalreserve #unitedstates The Federal Reserve System, under delegated authority of the United States Congress under the Federal Reserve Act (FRA), is: (1) The monopoly supplier of money to the domestic U.S. economy in response to changing domestic macroeconomic conditions, with the objective of growing the monetary value of the economy at all times, meaning there is a proportionality relationship between the growth rate of fiat money in circulation in the economy at any given time and the growth rate of the economy. (2) Ensures moderate long term interest rates are maintained by buying and selling a mix of Treasury bonds of varying maturities or government debt in exchange for cash. (3) Conducts monetary operations so that your check can be cashed or deposited at a bank and money can be transferred between financial institutions. (4) Supervises banks in compliance with relevant federal statutes. (5) The lender of last resort in the event of bank failures and very rarely in response to broader economic failure of private firms under extenuating economic circumstances and extraordinary interpretation of the FRA. (6) Maintains stable prices using the money supply tools at its disposal such as the equilibrium interest rate in the market for supply and demand for cash and the quantity of money at any time in the money market. (7) Ensures maximum employment. The Fed, is a weak institution, and can only be held accountable for what it is responsible for under law (Items 1-7 above). At all times, to maintain stable prices, maximum employment, and moderate long term interest rates, the Fed’s triple Congressional mandate, the Fed hopes and prays that if it pours new, freshly printed, cash at the top of the funnel it will lead to investment and create jobs, what types of investment or types and quality of jobs it cannot say, and if it retracts money by literally burning old cash, the economy will slow down and lose jobs. The Fed has no control over how: (1) Firms make decisions on wages. Hence, no control over income distribution or rising income inequality which the attached CNN report alludes to. (2) Firms set prices. (3) Households spend and save or their balance sheets. Hence, no control over the inflation process. (3) Firms make investment decisions such as fossil fuels v. green energy or infrastructure renewal in #bidenomics. (4) Firms hire and fire workers. Talk to your member of Congress and The White House for everything (Items 1-4 above) the Fed is not accountable for.
Jackson Hole: Fed policy collides with reality in the most unequal county in America (CNN)
smartnews.com
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September will be a big month for updates from Congress. Is a government shutdown in the cards at the end of the month and what would that mean for the economy? Thanks to Carson R. Lewis for joining us to discuss what is on the table for Congress. #congress #economicimpacts #governmentshutdown
Nationwide Market Insights: What remains on Congress's to-do list for 2023? on Apple Podcasts
podcasts.apple.com
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The start of a new year is a time for reflection – and optimism. In our first KEYS webinar episode of 2024, we will look back at key lessons learned to help refine strategies. As this is an election year, we will also explore how the U.S. feels right now, building a checklist of what to watch out for and tips for how businesses can best adapt to the current social and political environment. https://lnkd.in/gyVtEFBg
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Washington can’t seem to find consensus on fixing the federal deficit. To understand where there might be common ground, we were joined on the American Compass Podcast by leading voices on both sides of the aisle: progressive Rep. Ro Khanna and Republican House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington. The problem is enormous. Interest payments on the national debt recently overtook defense spending. Democrats say the problem is too little tax revenue. Republicans blame profligate spending. There’s no public agreement on a path forward. In back-to-back conversations, Khanna and Arrington explore what serious fiscal responsibility would look like, given each party’s political commitments. Listen here: https://lnkd.in/e_zYdCQa
Confronting the Federal Deficit with Reps. Khanna and Arrington - American Compass
https://americancompass.org
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The start of a new year is a time for reflection – and optimism. In our first KEYS webinar episode of 2024, we will look back at key lessons learned to help refine strategies. As this is an election year, we will also explore how the U.S. feels right now, building a checklist of what to watch out for and tips for how businesses can best adapt to the current social and political environment. https://lnkd.in/e7s93aVu
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The start of a new year is a time for reflection – and optimism. In our first KEYS webinar episode of 2024, we will look back at key lessons learned to help refine strategies. As this is an election year, we will also explore how the U.S. feels right now, building a checklist of what to watch out for and tips for how businesses can best adapt to the current social and political environment. https://lnkd.in/e3PWVdbm
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My latest @FinancialReview column. The reasons our leaders give and the tools they use for public policies matter.
The dangers in designing policy via opinion polls
afr.com
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Narrative Designer / Game Writer / Words that build Worlds
3wExcellent. Glad to see you're taking up where I left off. :D https://www.newstatesman.com/author/daniel-griliopoulos