Josh Bailey’s Post

See my latest piece on the weaponization of AI and robotic systems and the resulting risk of nuclear escalation, "Swarms vs. Swarms" at thenation.com: https://lnkd.in/e4Au4JdZ

Iran practices attacking Israel’s Eilat. However, this is more than likely rhetoric to maintain equilibrium. The second and third phases of an Iranian attack against Eilat likely include the destruction of Iranian nuclear reactors by Israeli forces - something Iran could do without, especially whilst the country is in domestic turmoil. This exercise is to demonstrate a capability (true or not) to reinforce Iran’s standing in the region, much like the mock-up of a US carrier. https://lnkd.in/eNm9CPf3

The Merge highlighting Govini Ark.ai data: Check out this picture. On the left are 4 critical US weapon systems—including 3 that comprise the nuclear triad (bomber, ICBM, and sub). This is a supply chain map to their Chinese semi-conductor suppliers. It’s from a new Govini paper on defense acquisition, US production, and China. https://lnkd.in/e637RKxn

You might think of drones and nuclear power plants in terms of security. A Federal Aviation Administration notice advising private pilots to avoid airspace over the plants includes drone overflights. But drones are, increasingly, useful tools. Our resident inspectors often watch plant staff conduct inspections using drones to check structures and systems important to plant safety. Duke personnel use a drone to inspect the turbine rotor of the Keowee hydroelectric plant (which provides backup power to the Oconee Nuclear Station) by flying through the rotor vanes into the draft tube – a risky activity that used to require staff on a floating raft. NRC regulations allow for drones to be used as part of a plant’s overall safety program – supporting the use of new technology to maintain safety. 

Let's talk about things that should keep you up at night. A few years ago, two friends of mind - August Cole and Peter W. Singer - wrote a bestselling military thriller, Ghost Fleet. The book addressed a hot war between the United States and China, and one subplot dealt with the unintended effects (well, for the United States) of using Chinese made subcomponents in our warfighting platforms. The inability of those systems to be used effectively led to recalling the "ghost fleet" from mothballs, older platforms that lacked the sophistication of more modern systems. Calling that book a "thriller" is a misnomer. It was a warning shot over the bow. Fast forward to 2024. Jeffrey Nadaner's post below deals with supply chain data from four strategic warfighting systems: the B-2 stealth bomber, Minuteman ICBM, Ohio-class nuclear missile submarine, and Patriot missile system. All four platforms use Defense Logistics Agency approved suppliers for system components... but (and there's always a but) dig a little deeper and a number of those suppliers in turn purchase Chinese-made semiconductors from Chinese suppliers, which end up in those warfighting platforms. This is what has been semi-jokingly referred to as a "Ghost Fleet moment." Except it's not that funny and this is real life, not fiction.

Bombers, ICBM's, Subs - The U.S. Nuclear Triad. Zoom In... On the left, four critical US weapon systems (B-2’s, MMIII…). On the right, a supply chain map to their Chinese semi-conductor suppliers. It’s from a new #Govini paper on defense acquisition, US production, and China... highlighting Govini's Ark.ai data and platform: https://ark.ai/ Govini is providing pathways to mitigate, if not end, this strategic vulnerability. #supplychain #acquisitions #sustainment #foreigninfluence The #Ark is the only software platform purpose-built for Defense Acquisition that leverages authoritative commercial data and #AI-enabled Applications designed to solve Acquisition challenges. With the Ark, analysts and decision-makers gain the ability to manage Acquisition programs proactively, allowing them to unwind the legacy complexity and effectively field modern warfighting systems that compete with China. https://lnkd.in/e3aQCvzb

"New technologies such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are transforming the battlefield by bringing lethality and preci­sion to bear against forces deployed in the field. Drones are playing an increasingly consequential role in logistics and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions augmenting the sustainment and information capacities of militaries. The In­dian armed services are in the process of imbibing these changes that are underway. Synergising technology and manpower, as is underway, requires cross-posted trained personnel capable of operating supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles with UAVs. In ad­dition, the exploitation and application of emerging technolo­gies such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology (QT), quantum computing (QC), machine learning (ML), software de­fined radios (SDRs), 5G, and 6G will augment the performance of weapons systems generating greater information dominance on the battlefield and shape the trajectory of the battlefield. For instance, these technologies with skilled military manpower will be integrated and exploited through the IA’s latest effort dubbed the Signals Technology and Evaluation and Adaptation Group (STEAG) tailored to enhance combat performance and effective­ness on the battlefield. ... Defence procurement has under­gone a significant change. The foremost factor contributing to this transformation is the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, also known as Make in India, launched in May 2020. The purpose of Atmanirbhar Bharat is not autarky but an effort to boost in­digenous defence manufacturing and production that taps into both public and private enterprise. A corollary of Atmanirbhar Bharat is the consolidation of the former Ordinance Factory Board (OFB), leading to the merger of 41 production units under seven new Defence Public Sector Units (DPSUs) with the aim of augmenting indigenisation. A secondary outcome of Atmanirb­har Bharat is the creation of Positive Indigenisation Lists (PILs). These PILs, the latest of which was released in December 2023, require the armed services and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to source a range of capabilities and technologies covering spares to whole components from domestic industry spread across the private and public sectors. A third consequence of Atmanirbhar Bharat is the launch of Innovations in Defence Excellence (iDEX) intended to foster innovation in defence tech­nologies by synergising the unrealised potential and strengths of academia, industry, defence research and development (R&D) institutes, startups and innovative individual technological entrepreneurs."

Our latest Iran Watch report explores the private Iranian companies that are contributing to the country's military drone program. John Krzyzaniak

The many ways of viewing AUKUS Pillar 2(nuclear subs) should include the developing capacities of a near future version of the DARPA Manta capable of launching a missile from hibernation https://lnkd.in/gewAY6ak But of course Pillar 2 is the one with immediate impact, and it’s really time more attention was paid to both the necessary dismantling of some US legal barriers and the impacts of serious attention to Pillar 2 practicalities in several domains

👉The growth of private knowledge-based companies may complicate the use of targeted sanctions to slow Iran's drone progress, given the difficulties in confirming the connection between the companies and Iran's military. Where private companies have connections to the IRGC, it is in many cases through their ownership and board of directors and can be multiple degrees removed. 👉This information is not always easy to ascertain, and so these companies may be able to operate freely for some time before attracting the attention of sanctioning authorities.#targeted sanctions #iranian #compliance #sanctions #sanctionscompliance #drones #irgc #irgcterrorists #iran