Ivelin Zvezdov’s Post

At this year's National Bureau of Economic Research meeting of the #insurance group the importance of price-making in distressed markets was the big topic. While building Next Generation Models [NGM] at Verisk Extreme Event Solutions, we wrote these two articles (with Society of Actuaries, Casualty Actuarial Society review) for colleagues in #underwriting and #riskmanagement. The papers outline the value of our view of natural catastrophe risk for metrics in spatial #diversification, https://lnkd.in/edkp89T & for competitive #premium pricing, https://lnkd.in/gA5bZTyJ. These have brought about some excellent discussion in the community on the #insurancecoverage gap & a worthy suggestion to look at the theoretical volume of #reinsurance coverage needed for distressed markets to function properly with enhanced clarity, certainty and predictability. If interested to contribute with data or research, please reach out. #floridainsurace, #californiainsurance

actuarial consultants are the bridge in an asymmetric information world

The AILO Actuarial Special Interest Group meets next week to hear about trends and learnings from the 2023 year-end actuarial reporting cycle and key challenges of multi-jurisdictional Solvency reporting and diverging requirements across jurisdictions. With plenty of opportunity to discuss these areas and to determine future topics of interest, all AILO Members with a particular focus on the actuarial discipline of our industry are welcome to join the debate. Contact secretary@ailo.org for more information. #AILOMember #Actuarial #SpecialInterestGroup

Do you remember our episode with Joshua Pyle, FCAS about managing bias in actuarial sciences? If you're attending the CAS Spring meeting, you'll get to hear more about this topic from him, Andrew, and this amazing panel. Details below. Don't miss it!

Top actuarial firm Milliman recently validated our data-driven approach to measuring and attributing cost savings. See more details and discover how we're the real deal when it comes to proving that we’re improving your population’s health. Get all the insights in their report 👇 #ProvenROI #RCT #Attribution #CostSavings

Many reserving actuaries still do most of their complex analysis work in spreadsheets that lack the proper controls and validations to be efficient and reliable. Modern actuarial tools can significantly reduce spreadsheet risk and improve the overall reliability of their analysis. To learn more, click here: https://bit.ly/3u8V6bE. #actuaries #propertycasualty #reserving

💡Through centuries of change, the actuarial profession has evolved as the guardian of financial stability, adaptability, and risk management. From the inception of the field to the present day, actuaries have continuously embraced new knowledge, advanced analytical techniques, and emerging technologies. Guided by mathematical precision, actuarial science has navigated the complexities of an ever-evolving world, ensuring the resilience of industries and safeguarding the future. As we embark on the next era of innovation, the actuarial profession will continue to shape a secure and prosperous future for organizations and societies alike. #riact #actuarial #educationalfriday

Today’s #WordOfTheDay is #ChainLadderMethod   Watch as Ghazi Mansoor, an Actuarial Analyst at #SHMA provides a short and simple explanation on this commonly used Actuarial technique.   Stay up to date on all the latest news in the Actuarial world by following our page. To learn more, visit www.shmaglobal.com

Max has put together some really good content for this *free* webinar. Definitely check it out and get your CE before the end of the year!

*Error propagation and attribution in simulation-based capital models* by Daniel Crispin – published in the March 2024 issue of the Annals of Actuarial Science Link to the full text in the comments. Abstract: Calculation of loss scenarios is a fundamental requirement of simulation-based capital models and these are commonly approximated. Within a life insurance setting, a loss scenario may involve an asset-liability optimization. When cashflows and asset values are dependent on only a small number of risk factor components, low-dimensional approximations may be used as inputs into the optimization and resulting in loss approximation. By considering these loss approximations as perturbations of linear optimization problems, approximation errors in loss scenarios can be bounded to first order and attributed to specific proxies. This attribution creates a mechanism for approximation improvements and for the eventual elimination of approximation errors in capital estimates through targeted exact computation. The results are demonstrated through a stylized worked example and corresponding numerical study. Advances in error analysis of proxy models enhance confidence in capital estimates. Beyond error analysis, the presented methods can be applied to general sensitivity analysis and the calculation of risk. #actuarialscience #insurance #research #proxymodels #approximation #simulation #erroranalysis #sensitivity