Henrik Gruber’s Post

An excellent presentation about the state of Agile by Mauro Strione, called "Ass Driven Organizations" Slides available there: https://bit.ly/3EMEska

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. 😅 On Earth, wherever there is WiFi there are many people. Why are there no people on Mars? Because there's no WiFi. 😄 In 30% of traffic accidents, alcohol is involved. Therefore, it's safer to drink and drive. 70 to 90% of all agile transformations fail. “Framework X” is the most used scaling framework by 35% of the organizations, so... 🤔 The power of statistics for weak arguments… Just having fun with statistics while passing time on a boring train ride..

There is no such thing as 100% certainty when it comes to predicting the future. Alas, no one has invented the magic crystal ball just yet. So, why do so many of us lean towards the illusion that coming up with a single certain delivery date is the best way to make our commitments? We have to embrace the fact that uncertainty exists and, rather than ignoring it or trying to work our way around it, we have to find a way to manage that uncertainty effectively. We have to start thinking probabilistically. And here is a little-known fact about your cycle time that’s probably the most accurate approach to forecasting you can take to make reliable delivery commitments → https://getnave.co/357iQ3z #NavigateYourFlow #Kanban #Agile #CycleTime #PerformanceImprovement

In this video, I delve into the three key problem-solving patterns: Continuous, Periodic, and Sporadic. I kick off with Continuous Patterns, highlighting their unchanging nature. Then I move on to the predictable, yet intriguing, Periodic Patterns, and talk about an unexpected consequence of human routines on seemingly unrelated systems. Lastly, we explore the elusive and unpredictable Sporadic Patterns. Watch now to discover the power of pattern recognition in efficient problem-solving. And follow me for my upcoming videos for a deeper dive into sporadic patterns, enhance your troubleshooting skills, and solve issues faster. #DesignThinking #CriticalThinking #RootCauseAnalysis #ProblemManagement #ProblemSolving #DecisionMaking #RiskAnalysis #GapAnalysis #RCA #MIM #IncidentManagement #ChangeManagement #Agile #AgileProblemSolving

When it comes to hitting deadlines, how does 95% accuracy sound? Trust me, not only is it doable – it’s all but _inevitable_ if you use the right tools and have the right strategy in place. I’m talking about probabilistic forecasting. John, the founder of design company Frost, and his team were struggling to make accurate delivery predictions. For a long time, they’ve been counting on their intuition and gut feeling and it didn’t get them very far. John and his team were data-driven by nature and they knew that chaotic approaches were not the answer. That’s when John made a discovery that led to his team being able to deliver on their commitments in 95% of the cases → https://getnave.co/3V4iajV #NavigateYourFlow #Kanban #MonteCarlo #Agile #TeamPerformance

🔍 Navigating Complexity: A Journey in Estimation and Delivery within Knowledge Work Over the years, I've danced through the intricate tango of complexity and its influence on estimation and delivery. 🕺💡 The Cynefin framework is a handy sense-making tool. It helps us consider what types of activities will best help us, depending on the type of domain our work is in. Think of it as our guiding compass, reshaping our approach to this intricate dance. In pursuit of certainty, complexity throws us a curveball. #Cynefin divides it into four domains: clear, complicated, complex, and chaotic. But it's the complex realm where knowledge work usually lives. Complexity isn't a linear road. Cause and effect dissolve into a maze of connections and surprises. Traditional estimations? They struggle here🤯 Attempting to cram #complexity into a neat estimation box? Cue skewed projections and missed deadlines. Enter traditional #projectmanagement. It's like bringing a knife to a gunfight. Fixed plans and timelines shudder in complexity's face. Flexibility? That's the real MVP here🛠️ Embracing Agile methods becomes our superhero move, championing #adaptability and iterative strides. Estimation? It's a dynamic group effort—think continuous learning and feedback loops. #Agile principles echo here too, advocating for responsiveness over rigid plans. 💬 Delivery becomes a dance, adapting and thriving amidst the chaotic landscape. Complexity isn't about finding the golden key; it's about adapting and learning. It's our fertile ground for #innovation and growth. After all, it's within complexity that our greatest opportunities await!🌟

The last prioritization meeting had made me so anxious, I thought I was going to have a heart attack. We worked for months between our releases. Executives pushed and jostled to get their requirements built and included in the next quarterly release. Something had to give... had to change... We: - took ownership of our components, database to website - automated testing, pipelines... - adopted a light change framework... - built trust with smaller releases... We started releasing often, sometimes weekly... Something magical happened: Executives changed their behavior When they saw us release more and often, they weren't under pressure to get their change in the release. It would happen, if not now, then in the next one. They started agreeing with each other's priorities. Prioritization meetings are short and logical. Technical excellence enables business agility. #flow #agile #transformation #psychologicalsafety #ahaagile

Trying a rogue night-time release. This week's edition of Agile On The Mind covers Precision Estimation. It's the science behind our body's ability to pay attention to the right information and use our attention wisely. If we understand this, we can start to tweak our Team Intelligence by helping our teams pay attention to the right information, to let them sense the right errors, to let them update their predictive models in the ways that are relevant to their challenges. Curious what I'm harping on about? Try my latest substack https://lnkd.in/eWDVpE4N

Sometimes slowing the business down is EXACTLY what the org needs to do. Agile is a word that means one thing to CXOs and another to director and manager level folks... Hint the biz just usually just wants speed.....so do children, teenagers and adrenaline junkies...they often don't care about how it is built or how it will protect revenue. Without extreme focus (enabling constraints and a lucid system of controls) speed can end up on the front page for the wrong reasons. Pure speed accelerates risk and often kills A major concern for speed orgs is overproduction. the environment around development will hit a saturation point creating constraints outside of dev in terms of the most important metric to control production of novelty. and also increasing surface area for attacks. effective uptake of value....and the rate or pace of value uptake by org layers (pace layering) differs by org and BU It is waste to create, test and deploy when we are not getting operational value. There is a limit on how much protein, nutrients and medications a body can absorb at once. There is also a growing risk of having to secure systems with increasing novelty (variance) that may outweigh speed to market. Its akin to laying rakes upside down in your yard only to find them by walking on them in lower light.