Eve Tamme’s Post

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Eve Tamme Eve Tamme is an Influencer

Senior Advisor, Climate Policy │ Chair │ Board Member │ Carbon Markets │ Carbon Removal │ Carbon Capture •Personal views•

This morning, after reading yet another theoretical paper on "how can we reduce the emissions in 1.5 scenarios even further (to limit the use of removals)", I started wondering about the practicality of such work. Right after, I saw a post by Roger Pielke Jr. on the disconnect between the highest priority scenarios by climate modellers and the actual plausibility of those scenarios. I'm not against scenarios that explore how a complete global behavioural change can help with greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction of meat consumption --> sustainable diet also has major health benefits! Or how steeply an immediate and broad deployment of climate technologies could reduce hard-to-abate emissions. But more often than not, these will always remain theoretical exercises. So, why not improve the policy relevance of the scenarios being developed? And make it clear where theoretical exercises end, and policy-relevant (with credible socio-economic assumptions) scenarios start? Read Roger's piece: https://lnkd.in/enWEeeSg And thanks, Margriet, for bringing this to my attention.

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Thanks Eve Tamme for also sharing and for the ht 🙏 I was aware of the '8.5' controversy of course. But Roger's article made me realize that the exact same thing is happening with the '1.5' (or technically I think it is 1.6 degC) scenario. Both are held on to despite the fact that >90% of experts will agree that there is no plausible, internally consistent socio-economic pathway anymore that will get us on those emission pathways. Scientists will then tell you that it is still interesting to look at the extremes at the system reactions. And tipping points and etc etc. And that is fine. Just don't use them for policy studies and policy decision making.

Gareth Wright

Head of Climate Strategy & Engagement at Woodside Energy | BSc | GAICD | Energy Sector | Board Member

1mo

Very well said, Eve Tamme. At its heart, scenario planning is about exploring a range of plausible versions of the future that consider a range of factors - ultimately to test resilience. If scenarios ignore these principles, or, worse still, are designed to deliver a definitive outcome (e.g. temperature outcome) with little consideration for associated implications or supporting requirements (e.g. policy settings), then they become ineffective.

Marina Barta

Sustainability SME, Sustainability and Strategic Insights

1mo

I think there is value in the implausible scenarios. Transparency is important when translating what each scenario represents here. This is a very complex non-linear non-singular process. Perhaps the extremes are indeed far fetched but understanding the feasibility and the boundaries are also important. Implausible is a scenario that acts as a shocker - we cant resolve this fast enough, but we can't wait too long to act either. I do, however, agree in providing more realistic scenarios to promote actionable response.

If we don’t check model outcomes for plausibility, we have an issue. If we constrain models because we refuse to accept some outcomes, we have an issue. Honest judgment matters indeed

Daniel Raimi

Fellow at Resources for the Future

1mo

There actually are a bunch of scenarios that span that gap. Just need to know where to look: https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/global-energy-outlook-2024/

So true, scenarios’s and studies on ‘meeting 1,5° #without technology x’ plays into the hands of campaigners against x, nothing else. There are many scenario’s. We all line in our own scenario. That is why GHG caps are crucial, like the EU ETS, so that companies can choose technology x, y, z. And on the distance between implausible scenarios, I fully agree, does not give us guidance what works. There used to be around Kyoto the needed 350 ppm scenario and the too high 450 ppm. Why not a scenario for 370 or 400? Those were doable. Then there is the 50%, 60% and 80% chance scenario’s. Where is the 100%? Maybe the 50% chance scenario works. Then there is the claims directive: claims only acceptable with absolute certainty. For policy and activation that does nog work. Caps work.

Jeremy Freund

Chief Technology Officer at Wildlife Works

1mo

There's nothing like stress testing to improve policy relevance and for validating (or invalidating) assumptions. Current accreditation bodies want no part of it, and it clearly cannot be outsourced to implementers. There must be some independent, non-conflicted academics that are not excessively pro- or anti- market who are willing to perform this type of scenario testing?

Eve Tamme you and Roger are spot on. Normative and technocratic scenarios are relevant to help us understand the size of the challenge or answer what if questions. We need scenarios that can help us understand what could actually happen. These explore the energy system and societal feedback loops and help us think about how to course correct for these. This is much more uncomfortable but crucial to help in the real world. As Hannah Ritchie describes beautifully in her book: 1.5 degrees C won't be the end of the world and hence we'll still need to keep on going.

Mark Syrett

Senior Flood Risk & Climate Resilience at Surrey County Council-Chair, Early Careers Network @ Association of SuDS Authorities; Tree pit SuDs design, Biochar Change Champion- making shift happen, all opinions my own.

1mo

Agree, the technologies are developed and available, the Political framework for scale up needs developing, like Canada’s announcement on public procurement of carbon credits to seed a potentially very large fledgling market and funding support for building plants; the focus should be on making shift happen now with proven technology.

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