Edmunds’ Post

According to our new Credit Industry Insights Report, mortgage origination growth declined 22% year over year. Gain access to more top takeaways for the mortgage industry in our infographic: http://transu.co/6049VvHjD #MortgageTrends #MortgageNews

Our past chair and Virginia dealer Liza Borches offers her insights on the impact of high rates in today's The New York Times article by Lydia DePillis. Writes DePillis: Car dealers may feel that shift [of consumer willingness to spend due to a strong jobs market] soon. In recent years, dealers made up for low inventory by raising prices. Carmakers have been offering promotional interest deals, but the average interest rate on new four-year auto loans has climbed to 8.3 percent, the highest level since the early 2000s. Liza Borches is the president of Carter Myers Automotive, a Virginia dealership that sells cars from many brands. She said automakers had been churning out too many expensive trucks and sport utility vehicles and should switch to making more of the affordable vehicles that many customers wanted. “That adjustment needs to happen quickly,” Ms. Borches said. Of course, interest rates aren’t a factor for those who have cash to buy cars outright, and Ms. Borches has seen more customers putting down more money to minimize financing costs. Those customers can also earn a good return by keeping cash in a high-yield savings account or money market fund. Full article at the link. National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) CBT News Automotive News

Quarterly reports came out for a number of large retailers. "Walmart reported another quarter of stellar results, ending the year on a high note as its low prices attract shoppers looking for deals in an economically challenging environment. Home Depot reported Tuesday that sales continued to fade during the fourth quarter as the country’s largest home improvement retailer feels the effects of high mortgage rates and inflation on its customers." Walmart is known for their discount pricing and "continues to cater to customers seeking necessities, but it’s also drawing households that make more than $100,000 a year. Two-thirds of Walmart’s market share gain in general merchandise comes from that latter group." Home Depot, with their focus on home improvement projects have seen a downturn as customers see it as not essential. In other words, the US consumr, the backbone of the economy, is still struggling. #fcf #flatbush #flatbushfund #community #istandwithisrael

MBS Live 10/17/2023 4:35:03 PM Strong Retail Sales Data and Logical Consequences   Tuesday, October 17, 2023      Today's morning commentary may as well be the recap. Very little happened that hadn't already happened right out of the gate this morning. In case you missed it, that involved sharply stronger Retail Sales data and a logical bond market reaction. Not only did the most current data crush the forecast, but last month was revised another 0.2 higher as well. Internal components were even stronger than the headline, and inflation-adjusted sales logged their third straight month in the black--each stronger than the last. Yields shot higher immediately and stayed in the same, terrible range all day. MBS tanked and mortgage rates hit new multidecade highs. This too shall pass, but it didn't start passing today.   Top News Homebuilder sentiment drops to 10-month low, as mortgage rates soar Builder sentiment for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since January, as mortgage rates soar. Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate The advanced retail sales report for September was expected to show a gain of 0.3%, according to a Dow Jones estimate. Lucid shares fall after third-quarter EV deliveries disappoint Lucid's third-quarter deliveries fell short of Wall Street expectations Nvidia stock falls after U.S. announces new restrictions on AI chip exports AI chip companies saw share prices fall Tuesday after the U.S. announced new restrictions on chip exports to China. Tupperware shares surge after company replaces CEO, shuffles board Tupperware named Laurie Goldman its new CEO and refreshed its board with three new members.

HdL HeadLines calls out monthly #retailtrends affecting California's economy. In this edition... 🛒 As Recession Fears Fade, We May be Experiencing a ‘Richcession’ 🛒 Retail Sales Rose Solidly in July 🛒 Homebuilder Sentiment Drops Sharply as Mortgage Rates Surge Over 7% 🛒 Store Closing Announcements Up 🛒 Online Prices Fall for Eleventh Consecutive Month #salestax #retailsales #consumerbehavior #retailindustry #ecommerce

You may say that the consumer can't afford higher housing mortgage rates, but they are spending far more of their income on other discretionary goods (dining, drinking, entertainment, hospitality, etc.). Where is the disconnect? 80% of the consumer either has no mortgage or less than a 4% rate, with increased incomes (and pocketed stimulus funds), fueling spending. 20% are being squeezed, housing costs and rents eating any savings. That 80% still controls the Fed's decisions on higher interest rates, which appears to go even higher to curb spending. https://lnkd.in/g8zNq2HJ

Inflation continues to make progress lower while home prices nationwide are on the rise. Here are last week’s headlines: • Annual “Core” Consumer Inflation Falls Below 4% • Wholesale Inflation Lower Than Expected • Home Prices Continue to Move Higher • Holiday Season Impact on Jobless Claims #mbshighway #loanofficerlife #mortgagepro #mortgagebroker

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆. This is due to the sentiment towards a potential rate cut in March starting to shift. This morning Retail Sales beat expectations. A strong economy means that the Fed doesn’t have to lower rates, which is what the Fed’s Christopher Waller effectively said yesterday. Other Fed members have echoed this. For a short-term close of escrow, locking is advised. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿. 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟭% 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘅𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁.  Pre-Approvals and scenarios, give me a call: 925-400-3850 #federalreserve #mortgagerates #mortgagebroker

https://lnkd.in/dwiW8xfi A very interesting article. Tightening credit combined with the majority of demand being needs based buyers has and will continue to see those that are targeting needs-based buyers leading in sales this year. There are plenty of buyers out there, but these are not the slam dunk covid era buyers of pay sticker or someone else will. A needs-based buyer will end up buying a car. It comes down to where and with who. They can't wait another year, two, or three for prices to come down.

https://lnkd.in/gVfRzMxH This morning the mortgage rate market took another hit as the monthly Retail Sales report came in much higher then expected. They also revised (corrected) last months retail sales report to an even higher number as well. Higher then expected inflation the past few months (lead by shelter costs), low unemployment, and consumers are still spending lots of money. All of these items are driving rates higher in the short term. Analysts still share the long term outlook that rates will come down, but when and how are TBD