Gontran de Quillacq

Forecasts for IPOs and M&A in 2024-2025 ▪️Market Activity in the Second Half of 2024 Analyst Predictions: Optimistic Expectations: 📊 Many experts predict an increase in market activity in the second half of 2024. George Easley, Director of Outsiders Fund, believes we will see a significant flow of IPOs during this period. Cautious Forecasts: 😐 Andrew Van Nest, Managing Partner of Exceptional Capital, believes IPOs will not return in full until 2025. Compromise Opinion: 🤔 Larry Ashebrook, Managing Partner of G Squared, does not expect significant changes until the end of 2024. Companies going public are likely to set lower prices. He predicts that the window for IPOs will fully open in the fourth quarter of 2024, setting the stage for a successful IPO year in 2025. ▪️Forecasts for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Increase in M&A Pace: 📈 Don Butler, Managing Director of Thomvest Ventures, expects an increase in the pace of mergers and acquisitions in 2024. The improvement in business fundamentals and startup economics in recent years has led to sustainable growth trajectories. Buyer Interest: 💼 Public companies, established corporations, and private investment firms have significant capital for acquisitions. They will be looking for startups that can strengthen their positions or complement their portfolio companies. Michael Marks, Founding Managing Partner of Celesta Capital, notes active acquisitions by companies like Broadcom, Intel, Nvidia, and AMD, which are using their research and development budgets to purchase developed companies for billions of dollars. ▪️Impact of Interest Rates Key Role of Interest Rates:💲 Venture capitalists are confident that interest rates will play a key role in determining the timing for IPOs and M&A. After years of rising interest rates, the US Federal Reserve is likely to start lowering them in 2024. Lowering interest rates will make capital less expensive, easing some market constraints. This could also make holding cash less attractive and support stock market prices, which would positively affect IPO success. It is also worth considering what the actual exit scenario might look like in 2024. While liquidity is good, many exits are likely to be forced and not necessarily at prices that companies or their investors initially hoped for. Butler said that many of these exits next year will likely be related to company closures rather than $5 billion IPOs. Investors stated that LPs are not chasing liquidity, but this is good for the market. And while investors are unsure what the exit market will look like in 2024, they are quite confident that it will be more active than in 2023.

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𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝘀𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗠𝗧 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀… Many have asked me about CMT charter, with questions focused on the impact that it can have on one’s career. I am briefly discussing the pros & cons of the certification in this post. The idea is NOT to criticize (so please hold your fire), BUT to evaluate the CMT in an unbiased way, as per how the investment industry would value it. For the start, CMT is a renowned certification and if you search LinkedIn, it is widely held by industry practitioners. It has a thriving alumni network, in addition to easily being one of the most interesting finance certifications to study. It is an educational delight to go through its study materials. Lastly, the CMT Association invests a fair bit of efforts to hold regular industry networking events both online and offline. This shows the commitment that the CMT Association has made, towards the investment community and furthering the cause of technical analysis as a discipline. On the flip side, depending on what kind of an investor it is, the perception about CMT varies. This is not because of the CMT designation or the topic coverage itself, BUT because of how different investors perceive technical analysis as a discipline. Technical analysis as a discipline is NOT taken seriously by many categories of investors, such as… - Long Only - Fundamental Long/Short - Sovereign Wealth Funds - Mutual Funds Now mind you, these are the funds that have the chunkiest corpuses to invest, and they won’t take technical analysis seriously! Just think- if you were a fundamental investor managing billions of dollars, would you invest based on graphs, charts, patterns, shapes, moving averages & indicators? The answer is a loud NO! You would invest based on fundamental analysis & valuation, right? However, not all is lost for CMT! Retail, HNIs, AIFs, Hedge Funds using momentum strategies & Family Offices- these are the types of investors that usually view technical analysis somewhat favourably, because of its simplified nature. It also pays to bear in mind, that not every retail and HNI investor may have a strong understanding of fundamental analysis & so technical analysis comes handy to those. So, my LinkedIn family- when you go searching for a job based on CMT, you will have a higher chance of acceptance at brokerages that service retail, HNI or family offices types of investors. However, if you are targeting trading desks at bulge bracket investment banks, they will be indifferent to CMT. If you are trying to get an entry level job at one of these desks, then you will find it tough with just CMT Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section! #students #education #equities #trading #investmentbanking #markets #iimlucknow #iimbangalore #jobs #careers #iimindore #CMTAssociation #CMT #MBA #FRM #CAIA #CPA #CA #iimcalcutta #mentoring #mentor #mentee #manankaro

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Monitor: US BSL CLO New Issue Arb Trend Since 2017 The median arbitrage metric YTD at 195 bps is actually lower than in both 2022 and 2023, but this year’s new issue volume has already far exceeded the past two years’ volume on an annualized basis. Similarly, 2018-vintage deals had the lowest median arbitrage metric at 191 bps, but 2018 was a record-breaking year for new issue #CLO volume at the time. On the other hand, 2020-vintage deals had the best median arbitrage metric at 243 bps, but their new issue volume was the lowest. If you’re interested in learning more about the premium content or would like a walkthrough of the website via Zoom, please don’t hesitate to email me at info@clopremium.co.uk. https://lnkd.in/e6sUTfjw

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Today’s US PCE and #CAD #GDP print will be covered live at 13:15. Message me for more details 1. US #PCE @1330 The last Fed meeting saw the Fed revise up both PCE and CORE #PCE projections. The headline PCE projection rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in March and the core PCE rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in March. However, the headline US CPI data for May is showing inflation moving back in the right direction, with the lowest reading in 3 months and coming in below expectations across the board as did did the latest PPI print. So, the market will be very sensitive to this PCE print as it is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. There are TWO way opportunities here to look for, given the importance of this print. Check out forecast distributions here. So, if we se a HIGH print we can watch for #USD strength. If we see: US Core PCE Price Index MM * (May 2024) 0.2% or higher US Core PCE Price Index YY (May 2024) 2.7% or higher US PCE Price Index MM* (May 2024) 0.2% or higher US PCE Price Index YY (May 2024) 2.8% or higher Check revision are unchanged or revised higher - Then expect heavy GBPUSD, EURUSD, and XAUUSD sellers. If we see a low print: US Core PCE Price Index MM * (May 2024) 0% or lower US Core PCE Price Index YY (May 2024) 2.4% or lower US PCE Price Index MM* (May 2024) 0% or lower US PCE Price Index YY (May 2024) 2.5% or lower Check revision are unchanged or revised lower - Then expect #AUDUSD, #USStock, and #EURUSD buyers 2. CAD GDP@13:30 At the same time of the US PCE print we have the CAD GDP print. Now the CAD’s reaction to the hot CPI print on Tuesday was very muted. Especially when you consider how stretched the CAD short position is on the latest CFTC report. See here. The message it seems is that investors want to sell the CAD as they expect the BoC to cut rates regardless of higher CPI. This would make sense with 50% of Canada’s mortgage holders still to renew onto a higher rate deal and the BoC will be inclined to cut rates. So, this means the bias remains for CAD selling and a big miss here should give reasons to sell the CAD further. So, if we see: Canadian GDP MM* (Apr 2024) 0.0% or lower And the priors revised lower or unchanged then expect CAD selling. Now if the US CPI print is high (and the CAD GDP is a miss) then expect #USDCAD buyers If the US CPI print is low (and the CAD GDP is a miss) then expect #EURCAD buyers The Swing trade AUDNZD option remains: Buy bias from pullback to 1.0900 after hot AUD CPI increases chance of RBA rate hike with target of 1.1000 and stops running below 1.0850 See London webinar recording on Jun 26 & Jun 27 for more info

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Bull case for $PALL 1- Managed money is historically short Palladium as a percentage of open interest, per the CFTC'S commitment of traders report (below and to be updated with Monday's delayed report). Note: speculators are generally more fickle than the producers/merchants and swap dealers that are on the other side of this trade, raising the probability of a short squeeze. 2- Speculation that EVs are going to displace internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is being reconsidered in a big way, especially in the Americas. Tariffs don't help. 3- Discount to platinum, so potential reversal of Pt substitution in catalytic converters. 4- Price ~25% below estimated average cost of mining, unsustainable in the long run. 5- Mining production concentrated in two of the riskiest countries: Russia and South Africa. 6- Peak Fed funds, likely a cut in September. 7- Free call option on a future hydrogen economy, with Palladium playing a key role in the generation, purification, storage, and detection of H. 8- Rumored corner of the physical by China as a retaliatory measure for EV tariffs. Auction prices for physical palladium in London way above Sep futures price in NY as of Friday's close. Bear case: 1- Russia dumping Pd stocks as it struggles to finance its war with Ukraine? 2- EV battery technology improvements and acceleration of charging station build out? 3- Catalytic converter design permanently using more Platinum and less Palladium? 4- Next Fed move actually a hike? 5- Imminent global recession adversely impacting auto demand? *Battle lines are being drawn. Abbott Capital is positioned long $PALL and long Sep Palladium futures.

Thanks for all the quiz responses to my previous post - over 120 in total from the CF / PE community with time still to run! I agree with the majority that False is the right answer. If you want an explanation, give me a shout, I have already exchanged messages with a couple folks directly. What I will mention here though is an observation from M&A training sessions, which is those who are new to this can sometimes (understandably) be overly focussed on equity value and neglect the rest of the EV to Equity bridge from a deal mechanics perspective... We have another Q lined up for next week, and this should cause a greater split in the group with a bit of luck! #corporatefinance #privateequity #investmentbanking

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Keith Gill May Have Resurrected the Criminal Art of Market Manipulation ******************** "After five short years, we may now need to be reminded what Wall Street was like before Uncle Sam stationed a policeman at its corner, lest, in time to come, some attempt be made to abolish that post." FERDINAND PECORA, lead prosecutor of the Stock Exchange Practices Hearings ******************** Keith Gill's latest gambit on Gamestop has landed him in some very hot water. Details are still emerging, but it's possible that he has shed his reputation as an annoying lottery winner masquerading as an investment genius in exchange for a criminal rap sheet as a market manipulator. Many retail investors applaud Mr. Gill, but this would be a grave misunderstanding of his harmful behavior. Market manipulation was outlawed with the passage of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This law was not designed to protect the stock operators of Wall Street; it was designed to protect the average investor. Prior to its passage, market manipulation was rampant on Wall Street. One of the more infamous manipulators was Jay Gould, and among his go to tactics was publishing his positions to pump up stocks or cause a sudden collapse in price depending on whether he was buying or shorting. Again, it is unclear whether Mr. Gill has entered the realm of criminal activity, but at a minimum, his behavior runs contrary to the spirit of U.S. securities laws. It is unsurprising, however, that he continues to push his luck. In 1914, Louis Brandeis wrote, "the weakness of human nature prevents men from being good judges of their own deservings." Mr. Gill appears to possess this human weakness in ample quantity, but he also possesses another. In the 1903 classic, "Letters from a Self-Made Merchant to His Son," George Lorimer cautioned that "when a speculator wins, he don't stop until he loses." Mr. Gill is not hero, and if he violated U.S. securities laws, he deserves to be punished accordingly. #sec #marketmanipulation #gamestop https://lnkd.in/duTWSCPr

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What’s Happening. A View From The Castle.   Be careful what you wish for... If NYS seizes Trump’s 40 Wall Street in lower Manhattan that act in itself could diminish its value. The area has 30% vacancy, and this building is 21% vacant and requires significant renovation. A government takeover could cause uncertainty causing tenants and buyers to avoid it altogether.   “Muskrat, muskrat candlelight, doin' the town and doin' it right”… Tesla’s stock price is down 64% from 2021. It has been in a drawdown for 896 days, the second longest since 2010 when it IPO’d.   I help code, therefore I am... The CIO at Goldman Sachs is advising college students to major in philosophy as AI replaces many coders and companies seek engineers with expertise in English, psychology and philosophy, who know how to ask good questions, and have strong critical thinking and communication skills.   Actually, law is law... Former trader Avi Eisenberg of Mango Markets, a DeFin protocol, was convicted in a jury trial of wire fraud, commodities fraud, and market manipulation after he extracted $110 million from the platform. He manipulated a large increase in the price of the Mango token then borrowed against it and made off with $110 million. His defense: the code permitted his activity, and code is law.   It's not boring to me... The floor price of Bored Ape Yacht Club's NFTs have dropped over 90% from their peak, hitting their lowest level since 2021.   "I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love"… Bitcoin teller machines that make crypto conversions for retail customers are disproportionately located in areas with a majority of Black and Latino residents, and charge fees as high as 22% per transaction.   Bidenomics??? The total market value of TrumpCoin is down to $63,736 (current price: .01; peak price: .60). The coin is described as a cryptocurrency supporting Trump his conservative followers. Its crowdfunding blockchain provides funding and recognition for "patriots."   In case you're wondering if the blockchain sector is still hot... Monad Labs raised $225 million in a venture funding round to further develop its Layer-1 blockchain, a new kind of EVM that implements parallelization, enabling more efficient processing and instant block finality rather than carrying out each process consecutively. [for the newbies: they're making Etherium run faster]   “The meaning of things lies not in the things themselves, but in our attitude towards them”… The UST curve inversion (3-month vs. 10-year yields) has been inverted for 546 consecutive days - the longest in history.   Broken records... US credit card delinquency rates are the highest ever recorded. 3.5% of credit card balances are at least 30 days past due. Total credit card debt is at a record $1.3 trillion (average interest rate a record 28%).   #investmentbanking #technology #corporatecurrency #privateequity #venturecapital #castleplacement #cpgoapp

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~My views of the U.S stock markets(188)~ Following the last analysis of the Dow Index, i will analyze the S&P Index. The S&P Index rose from April 19th (4,953P) to May 23rd (5,341P). This decline fell exactly to the 38% level of the Fibonacci theory(Indicated on the chart). If the U.S. stock market falls to the 38% level of the Fibonacci theory during technical correction, the technical correction is considered complete. Therefore, the S&P index is expected to continue its upward trend again. #stockmarket #S&P

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thoughts on macro (54 of z) on reverse repo ---------------------------- there is quite a hullabaloo about the fast draining reverse repo (domestic rrp) account at the Fed... ...raising the concern that "who will buy US treasuries thereafter?" this simplistic question wrt a complex situation ignores several key moving parts: 1. US Fed balance sheet of $ 7.46 tn comprises: - 87% currency, reserves & losses - 6% domestic rrp - 7% foreign rrp & multilateral institution deposits   So the "buffer" available on Fed BS is ~2x the $0.44tn domestic rrp, providing ~6 month runway to cover budget deficits, all the way up to Nov elections 2. the 3 primary moneys in the economy are - dollars issued by banks - reserves issued by fed - t bills issued by treasury regulation can easily equalise some or all of these... eg SLR requirement on banks can be lifted, thereby equating reserves & t-bills. and/or, fdic insurance can be reduced, thereby de-equalising dollars and t-bills (resulting in dollars flowing into t-bills) and many more plumbing-level changes can be made to enhance flows into treasuries 3. Govt can retain the current skew and issue more t-bills and less t-bonds. For short tenor treasuries are very money-like 4. Fed can enhance money-ness of longer dated treasuries (2+ years) by extending the BTFP-like system to a wider set of participants, especially primary dealers 5. Fed can raise cost of lending by US institutions via FX swap, that feeds the Eurodollar liquidity, thereby diverting that liquidity away from eurodollars and into treasury issuances. fed will keep eurodollars well funded via its own fima and swap lines. 6. Fed could of course end the so called QT, thereby releasing the monthly $60+35bn odd max-demand to now bid in the primary issuance by treasury 7. Fed could unveil an attractive facility (on lines of overnight repo) accepting all kinds of collateral, provided the borrowed amounts are invested in treasury instruments This is of course only a partial list of measure that fed/treasury could take, and each of the above comes with trade-offs, in the highly inter-connected system that we now have. hence, enough peacetime levers are available to ensure treasury markets remains well bid, and come a crisis, the virtually unimpeded wartime playbook becomes available too market participants would be well advised to look at both the mouth (policies) and the feet (trade-offs) to determine how the winds would blow and the tea leaves might gather... this has significant bearing on the private equity industry too, which generally considers itself relatively immune to "fed-stuff"...

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The end of the Hedged Dollar-Yen-carry trade (or hedged basis trade) could lead to $billions, if not $trillions of US Treasuries being dumped. Don't run. I am going to explain this like you are ten years old What is the hedged basis trade? Banks, (or hedge funds etc), borrow Japanese yen, (typically at very low interest rates), and then convert the borrowed funds into another currency to invest in higher-yielding assets (typically US Treasuries). To complete the trade and elimiate all risk, the foreign currency is hedged back into yen on a forward basis. Typically the hedge is for three months at a time, but it could be longer. The sale of yen for dollars (spot) and the simultaneous sale of those dollars (forward), back to yen is called a "swap". A swap is essentially a risk free currency trade. But there is a cost to the trade. The cost is the difference between the two short-term interest rates. The currency hedge is rolled over on each maturity. For years, it seemed to make sense for Japanese Banks to do the carry trade, i.e. to invest in US Treasuries. Example: On June 1st, 2020 the Fed fund rate was 0.08% and the Japan official rate was -0.1%. The cost of hedging dollars back to yen was the interest rate differential, i.e. 0.08% minus negative 0.1%. making 0.18%. On the same day the yield on the US 10 year treasury Bond was 0.662%. This meant that a Japanese investor owning the US 10 year bond could earn a return of 0.662% minus the hedging cost of 0.18%, makes 0.482%. Had the Japanese Bank borrowed the money at the policy rate of minus 0.1% its return would increase to 0.582%. Since a Japanese 10 year bond had a yield of 0% on the same date, it was almost a no-brainer to do the carry-trade. Why doesn't the carry trade work any more? Short term US interest rates are now 5.4% Short term Japanese rates are now 0.1% The cost of currency hedging dollars back to yen is thus 5.3% (the interest-rate differential) The return on a US 10 year bond is now 4.25% The return for a Japanese Bank is the yield on the bond,(4.25%), minus the currency hedging cost, (5.3%), makes negative 1.05%. If the bank had borrowed the yen at the current policy rate of 0.1% then its return decreses to -1.15%. Compare that to the yield now available on a 10 year JGB of 0.977%, and you can see that the bank is 2.027% worse off continuing with the carry trade compared to holding a JGB. Japanese Banks are going to completely unwind their carry trades, It's not just banks. Hedge funds will have dabbled as will the average japanese housewife. What are the consequences? It's likely that over the coming year there will be hundreds of $billions of US Treasuries sold by japanese investors. It may be $trillions. This is likely to put pressure on Treasury prices, causing them to fall and yields to rise. The first bank to announce an unwinding of the carry trade came this week. Norinchukin bank said it will unload $63 billion of foreign bonds.

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#1000XEC/USDT UPDATE: #1000XEC is now trading around 0.048$. #XEC is moving inside a falling wedge pattern on 4hr time frame. So the Possible scenarios are If the price pumps up and breaks out of the falling wedge pattern, we can see bullish momentum in it. Otherwise If there is a price dump, the price may move towards the lower support line. Stay tuned with us for further updates #btc #market #crypto #eth #binance

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