Derric N. Pennington

Highlights
Financial mechanisms for incentivizing land use practices that reduce impacts in Mississippi River Basin are explored.
Five mechanisms with potential to create swift and widespread change are analyzed.
These five mechanisms can achieve the intermediate 2025 target for reducing the Gulf of Mexico dead zone.
The GHG reductions achieved by these mechanisms would be equivalent to taking 13 coal fired power plants offline.
A sliding scale for crop insurance has the largest… Show more

Highlights
Financial mechanisms for incentivizing land use practices that reduce impacts in Mississippi River Basin are explored.
Five mechanisms with potential to create swift and widespread change are analyzed.
These five mechanisms can achieve the intermediate 2025 target for reducing the Gulf of Mexico dead zone.
The GHG reductions achieved by these mechanisms would be equivalent to taking 13 coal fired power plants offline.
A sliding scale for crop insurance has the largest impact and is also the most cost effective. Show less

Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) may be an effective way to reduce the negative impacts of agriculture at regional to global scales. Here, we present an approach that highlights the potential of VSS to reduce some of the negative externalities associated with agriculture production. To illustrate this potential, we show that VSS could reduce the global environmental impacts from growing sugarcane. Further, most of this environmental benefit comes from targeting just 10% of production… Show more

Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) may be an effective way to reduce the negative impacts of agriculture at regional to global scales. Here, we present an approach that highlights the potential of VSS to reduce some of the negative externalities associated with agriculture production. To illustrate this potential, we show that VSS could reduce the global environmental impacts from growing sugarcane. Further, most of this environmental benefit comes from targeting just 10% of production area. To realize these environmental gains, incentives for VSS adoption need to be sufficient to cover the costs of criteria compliance. Determining these costs and public and private-sector mechanisms for efficiently transferring VSS-adoption subsidies to farmers and millers are key future research needs. Show less

Improving water quality and other ecosystem services in agriculturally dominated watersheds is an important policy objective in many regions of the world. A major challenge is overcoming the associated costs to agricultural producers. We integrate spatially-explicit models of ecosystem processes with agricultural commodity production models to analyze the biophysical and economic consequences of alternative land use and land management patterns to achieve Total Maximum Daily Loads targets in a… Show more

Improving water quality and other ecosystem services in agriculturally dominated watersheds is an important policy objective in many regions of the world. A major challenge is overcoming the associated costs to agricultural producers. We integrate spatially-explicit models of ecosystem processes with agricultural commodity production models to analyze the biophysical and economic consequences of alternative land use and land management patterns to achieve Total Maximum Daily Loads targets in a proto-typical agricultural watershed. We apply these models to find patterns that maximize water quality objectives for given levels of foregone agricultural profit. We find it is possible to reduce baseline watershed phosphorus loads by ~ 20% and sediment loads by ~ 18% without any reduction in agricultural profits. Our results indicate that meeting more stringent targets will result in substantial economic loss … Show less

The US Endangered Species Act (ESA) regulates what landowners, land managers, and industry can do on lands occupied by listed species. The ESA does this in part by requiring the designation of habitat within each listed species’ range considered critical to their recovery. Critics have argued that critical habitat (CH) designation creates significant economic costs while contributing little to species recovery. Here we examine the effects of CH designation on land cover change. We find that the… Show more

The US Endangered Species Act (ESA) regulates what landowners, land managers, and industry can do on lands occupied by listed species. The ESA does this in part by requiring the designation of habitat within each listed species’ range considered critical to their recovery. Critics have argued that critical habitat (CH) designation creates significant economic costs while contributing little to species recovery. Here we examine the effects of CH designation on land cover change. We find that the rate of change from 1992 to 2011 in developed (urban and residential) and agricultural land in CH areas was not significantly different compared to similar lands without CH designation, but still subject to ESA regulations. Although CH designation on average does not affect overall rates of land cover change, CH designation did slightly modify the impact of land cover change drivers. Generally, variation in land prices played a larger role in land cover decisions within CH areas than in similar areas without CH designation. These trends suggest that developers may require a greater than typical expected return to development in CH areas to compensate for the higher risk of regulatory scrutiny. Ultimately, our results bring into question the very rationale for the CH regulation. If it is for the most part not affecting land cover choices, is CH helping species recover? Show less

The Mississippi River Basin faces a central challenge: How can agriculture and river management practices continue to provide crop production, water supply, flood regulation, transportation and other benefits without the current burden of environmental costs? We propose five bold finance opportunities to create rapid, widespread adoption of beneficial practices that can support agricultural production while tangibly rebuilding soil carbon and reducing water pollution in the Mississippi River… Show more

The Mississippi River Basin faces a central challenge: How can agriculture and river management practices continue to provide crop production, water supply, flood regulation, transportation and other benefits without the current burden of environmental costs? We propose five bold finance opportunities to create rapid, widespread adoption of beneficial practices that can support agricultural production while tangibly rebuilding soil carbon and reducing water pollution in the Mississippi River Basin in the next five years. Show less

The growing base of information about ecosystem services generated by ecologists, economists, and other scientists could improve the implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of commodity‐sourcing standards being adopted by corporations to mitigate risk in their supply chains and achieve sustainability goals. This review examines various ways that information about ecosystem services could facilitate compliance with and auditing of commodity‐sourcing standards. We also identify gaps in the… Show more

The growing base of information about ecosystem services generated by ecologists, economists, and other scientists could improve the implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of commodity‐sourcing standards being adopted by corporations to mitigate risk in their supply chains and achieve sustainability goals. This review examines various ways that information about ecosystem services could facilitate compliance with and auditing of commodity‐sourcing standards. We also identify gaps in the current state of knowledge on the ecological effectiveness of sustainability standards and demonstrate how ecosystem‐service information could complement existing monitoring efforts to build credible evidence. This paper is a call to the ecosystem‐service scientists to engage in this decision context and tailor the information they are generating to the needs of the standards community, which we argue would offer greater efficiency of standards implementation for producers and enhanced effectiveness for standard scheme owners and corporations, and should thus lead to more sustainable outcomes for people and nature. Show less

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions… Show more

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005–2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1‐km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37–48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel‐rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. Show less

Inclusive wealth is a measure designed to address whether society is on a sustainable development trajectory. Inclusive wealth is defined as the aggregate value of all capital assets. Increases in inclusive wealth indicate an improved productive base capable of supporting a higher standard of living in the future. To be truly inclusive, measures of inclusive wealth must include the value of all forms of capital that contribute to human well-being: human capital, manufactured capital, natural… Show more

Inclusive wealth is a measure designed to address whether society is on a sustainable development trajectory. Inclusive wealth is defined as the aggregate value of all capital assets. Increases in inclusive wealth indicate an improved productive base capable of supporting a higher standard of living in the future. To be truly inclusive, measures of inclusive wealth must include the value of all forms of capital that contribute to human well-being: human capital, manufactured capital, natural capital, and social capital. Sustainability concerns have increased attention on the ways of measuring the value of natural capital. We review various attempts to measure natural capital and to incorporate these into inclusive wealth including estimates using national wealth accounts and integrated ecological and economic models used to estimate ecosystem services. Empirically measuring the value of various types of capital in terms of a common metric is hugely challenging, and no current attempt to date can be said to be fully inclusive. Despite the empirical challenges, inclusive wealth provides a clear, coherent, and systematic framework for addressing sustainable development. Combining measures of semi-inclusive wealth that capture forms of capital that can be relatively easily measured in monetary terms with a set of biophysical metrics capturing important aspects of natural capital that are difficult to measure in monetary terms may provide a good set of signals of whether society is proceeding along a sustainable development trajectory. Show less

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how… Show more

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision. Show less

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how… Show more

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision. Show less

We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of… Show more

We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values. Show less

Terrestrial ecosystem services are ecological processes generated on the land and in fresh water that create value for one or more people. Given that ecosystem services create value for people, society might realize a net benefit from better management of their provision. In order to make this determination we need methods for accurately modeling and mapping service provision and value across a landscape. Here we discuss and investigate some of these modeling and mapping approaches.

Prioritizing land for conservation often competes with other societal objectives, such as housing developments, recreation, agricultural or industrial development, and resource extraction. The number of potentially competing objectives can complicate conservation planning decisions. Although there are potential tradeoffs among conservation for biodiversity, ecosystem services (ecological processes benefiting people), and economic costs, a systemic planning framework can help to identify… Show more

Prioritizing land for conservation often competes with other societal objectives, such as housing developments, recreation, agricultural or industrial development, and resource extraction. The number of potentially competing objectives can complicate conservation planning decisions. Although there are potential tradeoffs among conservation for biodiversity, ecosystem services (ecological processes benefiting people), and economic costs, a systemic planning framework can help to identify synergies. By comparing alternative options for prioritizing conservation efforts, tradeoffs among various objectives can be evaluated, including conserving biodiversity, supplying ecosystem services, and minimizing costs. Herein, the recent research that is advancing these frontiers is described. Show less

The conservation community is divided over the proper objective for conservation, with one faction focused on ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being and another faction focused on the intrinsic value of biodiversity. Despite the underlying difference in philosophy, it is not clear that this divide matters in a practical sense of guiding what a conservation organization should do in terms of investing in conservation. In this paper we address the degree of alignment between… Show more

The conservation community is divided over the proper objective for conservation, with one faction focused on ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being and another faction focused on the intrinsic value of biodiversity. Despite the underlying difference in philosophy, it is not clear that this divide matters in a practical sense of guiding what a conservation organization should do in terms of investing in conservation. In this paper we address the degree of alignment between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation strategies, using data from the state of Minnesota, USA. Minnesota voters recently passed an initiative that provides approximately $171m annually in dedicated funding for conservation. We find a high degree of alignment between investing conservation funds to target the value of ecosystem services and investing them to target biodiversity conservation. Targeting one of these two objectives generates 47–70 per cent of the maximum score of the other objective. We also find that benefits of conservation far exceed the costs, with a return on investment of between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 in our base-case analysis. In general, investing in conservation to increase the value of ecosystem services is also beneficial for biodiversity conservation, and vice-versa. Show less

Human development is changing the landscape in many ways that affect the distribution of wild species of mammals. Most previous work has focused on birds with only a few studies that examine the effects of urbanization on mammalian species. Using a combination of live trapping, track plates, and observation, we collected preliminary data in which we quantified patterns of species distributions across a rural-urban gradient in southwestern Ohio. Individual species responded differently to… Show more

Human development is changing the landscape in many ways that affect the distribution of wild species of mammals. Most previous work has focused on birds with only a few studies that examine the effects of urbanization on mammalian species. Using a combination of live trapping, track plates, and observation, we collected preliminary data in which we quantified patterns of species distributions across a rural-urban gradient in southwestern Ohio. Individual species responded differently to aspects of human development. As seen in some previous avian but not mammalian studies, mammalian species richness was greatest at intermediate levels of development. Using cluster analysis, we were able to group sites into three types based on species richness: the most rural sites, those with a moderate degree of development, and the most urban site. This study shows that mammals respond to urbanization in similar ways to birds and butterflies and suggests that different variables may be necessary to explain the observed patterns. Show less

Aim Urbanization is a leading threat to global biodiversity, yet little is known about how the spatial arrangement and composition of biophysical elements – buildings and vegetation – within a metropolitan area influence habitat selection. Here, we ask: what is the relative importance of the structure and composition of these elements on bird species across multiple spatial scales?

Location The temperate metropolitan area of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Methods We surveyed breeding… Show more

Aim Urbanization is a leading threat to global biodiversity, yet little is known about how the spatial arrangement and composition of biophysical elements – buildings and vegetation – within a metropolitan area influence habitat selection. Here, we ask: what is the relative importance of the structure and composition of these elements on bird species across multiple spatial scales?

Location The temperate metropolitan area of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Methods We surveyed breeding birds on 71 plots along an urban gradient. We modelled relative density for 48 bird species in relation to local woody vegetation composition and structure and to tree cover, grass cover and building density within 50–1000 m of each plot. We used an information‐theoretic approach to compare models and variables.

Results At the proximate scale, native tree and understory stem frequency were the most important vegetation variables explaining bird distributions. Species’ responses to landscape biophysical features and spatial scales varied. Most native species responded positively to vegetation measures and negatively to building density. Models combining both local vegetation and landscape information represented best or competitive models for the majority of species, while models containing only local vegetation characteristics were rarely competitive. Smaller spatial scales (≤ 500 m) were most important for 36 species, and eight species had best models at larger scales (> 500 m); however, several species had competitive models across multiple scales.

Main conclusions Habitat selection by birds within the urban matrix is the result of a combination of factors operating at both proximate and broader spatial scales. Efforts to manage and design urban areas to benefit native birds require both fine‐scale (e.g., individual landowners and landscape design) and larger landscape actions (e.g., regional comprehensive planning). Show less

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify… Show more

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns. Show less

Urbanization changes bird community structure during the breeding season but little is known about its effects on migrating birds. We examined patterns of habitat use by birds at the local and landscape level during 2002 spring migration at 71 riparian plots along an urban gradient in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. Using linear regression, we examined variation in relative density, species richness, and evenness of four migratory guilds associated with natural land covers and building area at four… Show more

Urbanization changes bird community structure during the breeding season but little is known about its effects on migrating birds. We examined patterns of habitat use by birds at the local and landscape level during 2002 spring migration at 71 riparian plots along an urban gradient in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. Using linear regression, we examined variation in relative density, species richness, and evenness of four migratory guilds associated with natural land covers and building area at four scales (50, 100, 250, 500 m radial buffers). We also examined the influence of local vegetation using multiple regression models. As building area increased, riparian forests tended to be narrower and have fewer native trees and shrubs. In general, native birds were positively associated with tree cover (within 250–500 m of stream) and native vegetation, and negatively with building area (within 250 m); exotic species responded inversely to these measures. Short-distance migrants and permanent residents displayed the weakest responses to landscape and vegetation measures. Neotropical migrants responded strongest to landscape and vegetation measures and were positively correlated with areas of wide riparian forests and less development (>250 m). Resident Neotropical migrants increased with wider riparian forests (>500 m) without buildings, while en-route migrants utilized areas having a wide buffer of tree cover (250–500 m) regardless of buildings; both were positively associated with native vegetation composition and mature trees. Consequently, developed areas incorporating high native tree cover are important for conserving Neotropical migrants during stopover. Show less

.Understanding how urban land-use structure contributes to the abundance and diversity of riparian woody species can inform management and conservation efforts. Yet, previous studies have focused on broad-scale (e.g., urban to exurban) land-use types and have not examined more local-scale changes in land use (e.g., the variation within “urban”), which could be important in urban areas. In this paper we examine how local-scale characteristics or fine-scale urban heterogeneity affect(s) the… Show more

.Understanding how urban land-use structure contributes to the abundance and diversity of riparian woody species can inform management and conservation efforts. Yet, previous studies have focused on broad-scale (e.g., urban to exurban) land-use types and have not examined more local-scale changes in land use (e.g., the variation within “urban”), which could be important in urban areas. In this paper we examine how local-scale characteristics or fine-scale urban heterogeneity affect(s) the diversity, composition, and structure of temperate woody riparian vegetation communities in the highly urbanized area of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. We found that urban riparian areas can harbor a high diversity of native canopy and shrub species (38 and 41, respectively); however, native and exotic woody plant species responded differently to urbanization. Exotic canopy species increased with the level of urbanization while native canopy and understory species declined. Understory species diversity displayed a greater response to urbanization than did canopy diversity, suggesting temporal lags in canopy response to disturbances associated with present and recent land-use changes. Certain native and exotic woody species represent ecological indicators of different levels of urbanization. Show less