Brian Sozzi

BREAKING: @Skydance - RedBirdCap said to be final stages of negotiating purchase of Paramount&Co.though talks remain fluid, sources say. Under terms being discussed, Shari Redstone will retain stake in company through preferred stock. RedBird’s Jeff Shell will play key management role; Jeff Zucker eying return to broadcasting as well by likely running @CBS. Talks remain fluid, but $PARA increasingly concerned that Sony -Apollo deal wouldnt pass regulatory muster. Deal could be finalized in 2 weeks; final terms could value payment to Redstone at $3 billion

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If you are confused about Fed messaging right now, I try to unpack the problem in this story. To put it simply, the Fed communicates in baselines, not in bets, to paraphrase Annie Duke. They need a better way to communicate probabilities. Every policy maker who said three cuts this year looks like a good baseline most likely had an unusually high probability of less than three that they didn't communicate. There are many ways to communicate about risk and uncertainty. The Fed is behind other central banks on this front. https://lnkd.in/ese7jpEb

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Today's euphoric reaction to a slightly cooler June CPI print may qualify as an example of what Carley Garner, DeCarley Trading highlights here on the risks of an overheated #stockmarket #spx #copper #yen that could lead to a substantial drop for #s&p500

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Ditch the pitch! 'We keep trying to jam our funds into allocators portfolios with 20 charts, 30 slides, and in 60 minutes or less,' writes Stacy Havener for Citywire Selector's fund distribution newsletter this week. 'There is a way out...' Presenting is killing your sale, she argues, instead think about: 🧙‍♂️ Storytelling 🙉 Listening 🦄 USPs Read the latest in our ongoing series on improving your sales craft to discover three ways to transform client meetings. #funddistribution #pitching #assetmanagement https://lnkd.in/d_SKAB9P

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In today's DealBook: Are investors getting tired of the high cost of A.I.? Meta reported its best-ever first quarter results but its shares tumbled, wiping $200 billion of its market capitalization — and serving as a warning to other Big Tech groups that are spending big on A.I. Elsewhere: I look at a mining megadeal that's all about the green transition; and Lauren Hirsch on how companies are thinking about getting round a ban on noncompete agreements. https://lnkd.in/gUCJxsyV

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When Seatrium starts executing its share buybacks, the company’s recently overhauled board would be sending a strong signal to the market that it believes the beleaguered stock offers good value at that level. The board should be careful to get this decision right. Here’s my latest contribution to the #HockLockSiew column in #TheBusinessTimes: https://lnkd.in/gWWMECE6

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A #datacenter operator that rents out thousands of NVIDIA chips for use in #artificialintelligence applications such as OpenAI's #ChatGPT is thinking about securitizing its cashflows. The #bond offering would mark the emergence of a new asset class, giving securitization investors their first shot at adding #AI exposures to their portfolios. Find out who’s behind the project and get access to other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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Add concerns about this year’s presidential #election to the list of forces driving up securitization volume. At more than $200 billion, the amount of new asset- and mortgage-backed #bonds issued in the U.S. so far in 2024 is up nearly 35% from a year ago. And as issuers continue to flood the market, it’s becoming apparent that some want to lock in funding should the election results prompt a fresh round of market disruptions. Of particular concern is that a loss by #Trump could mean another contested election. Learn more about how issuers including BMW of North America and American Honda Motor Company, Inc. are preparing for that possibility at no change in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/eVAf4Kmm

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This is the latest Points of Return, on the extraordinary momentum rally, and also the ways politics is affecting markets on both sides of the Atlantic:

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Treasury yields are are spiking on renewed inflation risks, and investors are balking at record auction sizes ahead of a massive wave of new supply expected next month. But the bond market has been wrong before and could be again, with some investors betting that inflation pressures will ease notably over the summer months.

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A Deep Dive into Paramount Global's Strategy and Valuation 🌐 Inside Paramount Global's Strategic Transition to Digital As the media landscape evolves, Paramount Global is adeptly shifting its focus to meet the surging demand for digital content. Here’s a deep dive into the company's operational segments and strategic initiatives: Key Business Segments: 1) TV Media: Includes powerhouses like CBS and cable networks like MTV and Comedy Central. Despite challenges from cord-cutting, this segment enjoys boosts from major events like the Super Bowl and election cycles. 2) Direct-to-Consumer: Rapidly expanding with Paramount+ and Pluto TV leading the way. The segment boasts a CAGR of 42.29% over the past two years, with Paramount+ experiencing a subscriber growth rate of 43.45% CAGR. 3) Filmed Entertainment: Focuses on theatrical releases that spur subsequent digital consumption and licensing revenues driving DTC viewership. Strategic Shifts and Financial Insights: - Revenue Trends: By 2028, DTC is expected to surpass TV Media in revenue generation. Key broadcasting events will bolster a projected 4% revenue growth in TV Media for 2024. - Operational Efficiency: Paramount is honing in on efficiencies and cost-cutting to balance declining traditional TV revenues, setting the stage for DTC to offer more stable revenue streams. - Technology Investment: Significant reinvestments are planned for cloud architecture and global advertising solutions to enhance the DTC user interface and overall subscriber experience. Market Position and Outlook: - Equity Structure Challenges: The company’s dual-class equity structure poses undervaluation risks, especially in potential mergers and acquisitions. - Growth Prospects: Despite competitive pressures, Paramount is strategically positioned for growth, particularly through international expansion and bolstering its DTC revenues. - Stock Valuation: Current market valuation may not reflect Paramount's intrinsic value, estimated between $41.823 and $51.117 by December 2025. A market revaluation could uplift the stock significantly. In Summary: Paramount Global is not just keeping pace but setting the pace in the industry’s transition from traditional broadcasting to digital streaming. With a focus on international expansion and optimizing its direct-to-consumer offerings, Paramount is steering towards greater profitability and market recognition. 📈 What are your thoughts on Paramount’s strategic moves in the evolving media landscape? #Media #DigitalTransformation #ParamountGlobal #StreamingWars #StrategicPlanning #Investment #ValueInvesting

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As we move into vital tax policy discussions next year, muni advocates are now urging the U.S. Treasury Department to fill the vacant position of an in-house municipal market expert, which was vacated in 2019 by John Cross. Along with several members of the House Municipal Finance Caucus retiring, advocates say they intend to forcefully advance public finance issues in Washington. "If we're about to have another round" of tax talks "and there's no one in Treasury who can be a resource of information about the muni market, then there's going to be a real problem," Emily Swenson Brock, federal liaison at the Government Finance Officers Association, noted at The Bond Buyer Southeast Public Finance Conference on May 7. She joined Leslie Norwood, managing director and associate general counsel of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, who said another "big challenge is the amount of advocates that we've had in Congress that will be retiring or no longer running for re-election. We've had a stable of former state and local officials in Congress we could go to that were familiar with municipal bonds and how infrastructure is funded, and I feel like we're losing some key advocates." The Bond Buyer will be covering these topics in depth over the course of the next six months and beyond. This page will be your go-to resource for all of it. https://lnkd.in/e6v2Jjcn

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What a treat to spend time in studio with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec for this Bloomberg Businessweek conversation about my new book, HOW THE WORLD RAN OUT OF EVERYTHING: Inside the Global Supply Chain. This episode really captures my book. #supplychain #China #shipping #rail #manufacturing #globalization #trade #manufacturing #JustInTime #labor #monopolypower

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S&P Global Ratings Chief Global Economist sees a gradual path to rate cuts by global central banks as inflation surely but slowly subsides and growth softens. Spoiler alert: the Fed will cut in December and the ECB will be doing one rate cut per quarter. https://lnkd.in/eEjV9Kpn

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Big article in WSJ today on the question "Is the #yield curve indicator broken". What does that mean? -> Yield curve indicator looks at the shape of the yield curve, meaning how much (usually government) bonds yield over different maturities. - Normally, the longer an investor locks up his money, the more yield he can expect. - In special situations, the yield curve can "invert" -> short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds. Why? - Because investors expect the central bank to cut rates soon, and want to lock in attractive rates as long as possible. But since the central bank would only cut rates if there was an economic slow-down, an inverted yield curve is seen as a predictor of an oncoming #recession. Is this time different? - With the yield curve being inverted now for 2 years, one could argue the indicator is broken. On the other hand, the US economy would be significantly weaker without a massive fiscal stimulus, currently amounting to 10.6% of #GDP. Link: https://lnkd.in/ePGXsmre

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ICYMI: Buried under the many investment offerings in the vast financial market is Monetary Metals & Co., a company that offers a unique way for the gold treasure troves of investors to unlock productivity. Discover how this company is ushering in a golden era through its #GoldYieldMarketplace. #monetarymetals #gold #goldyield #goldbonds #goldlease #yieldongold #paidingold #goldounces #companies #investments #investingold

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#Wood has become something of a #financial #rock #star in the US, thanks to the stellar returns achieved by the #ARK #Innovation #ETF between 2017 and 2020. In 2020, the fund gained 153%, exploding in popularity. But the following year it lost 23.4% and in 2022 even 67% of its value. #assetmanagement #finance #innovation #tech #stocks #markets #thematics

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FEATURE: The the most common trait shared by alternatives is the way in which investors access them. Since they are not publicly traded, constructing adequately diversified portfolios can be challenging. Alternatives are difficult to trade. Their prices aren’t listed on transparent exchanges. Buyers and sellers must first be found and then prices individually negotiated. As a result, investors frequently invest via funds with specialized managers, such as private equity and venture capital firms, which provide liquidity, diversification and expertise.

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Portfolio allocation is something we have been talking to managers and investors a lot lately in PERE Credit - most recently, we spoke to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Pulkit Sharma, CFA, CAIA and Jared Gross about how real estate allocations are changing in a higher-rate world. https://lnkd.in/eZG8qQkK

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