Why Your Startup Idea Isn’t Big Enough for Some VCs? - RTF Analysis
During the startup pitch, investors focus on one question: "Can this startup become worth a billion dollars?" If they don't see that potential, the startup is often rejected. But how do they calculate this potential?
VC functions with a #power law where the majority of a fund’s #returns come from a small % of investments. Because of this, #VCs need to know if a single investment can return the entire fund. 💹
Remember: Venture capital is not a home run business, It’s a grand slam business.” This is where the Return The Fund (RTF) analysis comes into play.
For a #venture fund, most #investments deliver 0–2x returns, with some reaching 2–5x. The real game-changer is a rare "unicorn" outcome of 10x+, essential for the fund to achieve top-tier 3x returns.
Venture success hinges on a few grand slam investments that "return the fund,".
The math for a RTF (Return The Fund) analysis is pretty simple: 💡
Fund Size / % owned at exit = Minimum Viable Exit
Let's understand this with simple example, Consider #startup XY AI is raising a $2M seed round at a $10M post-money #valuation (selling 20% of their company).
1️⃣ VC Fund A is a $50M seed fund investing $1M
- $1M/$10M valuation = 10% ownership
- In order to return the fund, XY AI must exit for (50/.1) = $500M
- A $50M fund, likely unable to maintain pro-rata in all rounds, may face 20% dilution. Assuming this, the actual return to the fund is $625M ($50M/.08). It accounts for #potential dilution impact on #returns.
To pass RTF analysis, Fund A must believe XY AI's exit at a minimum of $500M, preferably $625M. ✅
2️⃣ Now let’s look at a larger #fund model.
VC Fund B is a $250M seed + series A fund investing $1M in XY AI
- $1M/$10M valuation = 10% ownership
- In order to return the fund, XY AI will exit for $2.5B ($250M fund / 10% ownership).
- VC Fund B, maintains at least 10% ownership in XY AI and anticipates an additional 5% on average. For a favorable exit, they are banking on a $1.66B valuation, representing a 15% stake.
As an investor, the difference between a #company exiting for $500M vs. $2.5B is not trivial. The startup number with this exists always at the lower end.
As a #Founder consider #investors' philosophies, noting that some startups are suited for exits in the #millions, larger #funds may push for riskier strategies, aiming for rare grand slam successes that defy natural exit.
RTF analysis is a useful quick check for ownership and #investment size, but it's just one part of the larger DD. It helps investors plan their positions, but in the world of startups, there are always outliers.
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