What’s Behind the #Houthi Escalation on #SaudiArabia?
The recent escalation in #Houthis vocal attacks against #Saudi Arabia is rooted in a complex web of factors.
Initially, the #AnsarAllah (Houthi) leadership expected #Riyadh to fully commit to the #UN-led roadmap, particularly the payment of over $100 million USD monthly in salaries to Yemeni public servants, including Houthi forces, for 6 to 12 months. However, Riyadh indicated privately its inability to do so due to ongoing #US and #UK terrorism sanctions against the Houthis. This development contradicted the Houthis' assumption that post-Gaza war, normalcy would return, allowing the roadmap implementation talks to resume.
Compounding the situation is a liquidity crisis in Houthi-controlled areas, resulting in decreased purchasing power and declining sales, i.e. less taxes and revenues to collect. While the population awaits a resolution to the frozen salaries issue, the Houthis deflect blame onto Riyadh and the Aden-based government. Ironically, the Houthis have contributed to the economic crisis by bombing oil terminals and halting crude oil sales, crippling the Aden government.
Additionally, the Houthis are reacting to the Internationally Recognized Government's decisions to move the headquarters of telecommunications, commercial banks, and airlines from Sana'a to Aden. These moves are seen as provocations by local rivals, redirecting the conflict towards Saudi Arabia and aligning it with their "America and Israel" narrative.
The Houthis are aware of the economic and fiscal frustrations among the population under their control. Their hopes for the announcement of a new government coinciding with Saudi salary payments, following perceived victories in Gaza and at sea, and after eliminating adversaries and silencing opposition, have not materialized. This has escalated frustrations towards Saudi Arabia.
Their egos and hubris are elevated as they view American and British military efforts to counter maritime attacks as ineffective, fostering a mentality of "we are unstoppable and unconcerned." The group has bolstered its capabilities with advanced unmanned surface and aerial vehicles, as well as missiles provided by Iran.
Some argue that the Houthis are taking advantage of a perceived "loosening of Iranian control" as Tehran concentrates on internal political changes and a transfer of power. This coincides with strained dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran and an official restraint on escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia since March 2023.
Furthermore, they are capitalizing on Saudi Arabia's reluctance to enter into conflict by issuing exaggerated threats. Despite the recent statement from the Saudi Foreign Minister advocating for a swift signing of a roadmap, tensions could escalate. Moreover, the breakdown of prisoner exchange talks in Muscat indicates potential challenges ahead.
