HURRICANES

Special Features

A robust tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 72W from 12N to 23N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous convection is occurring over a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

Please, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone Canarias. Gusty winds to gale force are expected between islands through 02/12Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 36W from 04N to 17N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N TO 13N between 35W and 43W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough extends from 16N16W through 10N49W. The ITCZ continued northwestward from 10N49W to 09N60W. Scattered convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 36W and 43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, no notable convection is associated with either the Monsoon Trough or the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

Weak high pressure remains in place across the Gulf. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident across the basin, with a cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection near the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are noted, and fresh NE winds continue across southern portions of the basin

For the forecast, a weak ridge will remain in place over the N Gulf waters into Sat morning allowing for gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are expected near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night tonight and Fri night due to local effects. Looking ahead, a well-defined tropical wave will encounter favorable environmental conditions as it moves into the SE Gulf, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.

Caribbean Sea

A well defined tropical wave is over Hispaniola. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Moisture associated with this wave is supporting moderate to locally strong convection over southern Cuba. Fresh E to SE winds are occurring near the wave axis, with highest winds noted near the convection.

In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, showers and thunderstorms are also active over the southwest Caribbean, affecting near-shore portions of Costa Rica and Panama.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the maximum seas occurring over central portions of the basin, north of Colombia.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave moving westward will cross the central Caribbean through Fri and the W Caribbean through Sat night. While the wave will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, it will also break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish some across the central and W Caribbean through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave.

Atlantic Ocean

A well defined tropical wave is over Hispaniola, affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details.

The Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate much of the Atlantic forecast waters, centered near 36N50W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds near the Canary Island and southward to near 20N. Seas of 6 to 8 feet are common across this region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across much of the waters.

Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are occurring from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic north to 25N. Buoy observations showed seas of 5 to 8 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, a well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, the trades will remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era/Era