The United States is such an important country: Whatever they decide affects us so much that it’s almost like the whole world should be allowed to vote in US elections. With these provocative words, I started an opinion piece written exactly twenty years ago.
The year was 2004 and the US presidential election was looming. There was a risk that George W. Bush was going to be re-elected, and I considered him a very bad president of the United States who inflicted a lot of damage worldwide.
Unfortunately ‘Dubya’ was re-elected and the only good thing that followed was that amid his unpopularity, the Democrats got stronger, regained control of the Congress in 2006 and paved the way for the election of Barrack Obama in 2009.
This time around, I don’t see Joe Biden as a bad president. His worst mistake, in my view, was the catastrophic way in which the US withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021. I agree with analysts who believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin interpreted this withdrawal as a carte blanche to invade Ukraine.
We try to imagine how Putin thinks.
I have little doubt that Putin saw the withdrawal from Afghanistan as a confirmation of the Kremlin analysis which concluded that under Joe Biden, the US is no longer the global policeman and that it will lose interest in Europe and focus on the China challenge only.
Of course, I’m not trying to suggest Biden is responsible for Russia invading Ukraine. The only responsible man is Putin. And Putin actually made a big mistake in assuming that the US and the collective West would react to the invasion as mildly as they did to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Today the elephant in the room is Donald Trump. For all his shortcomings, he still has a competitive edge against Biden, who looks increasingly frail and absent-minded.
Another four years of Trump are likely to completely reshuffle world affairs, largely to the benefit of Putin and to the detriment of Ukraine.
Trump calls Biden “Sleeping Joe”. Isn’t it a political suicide that Biden himself admitted that he almost fell asleep during the debate?
Under Trump, transatlantic relations are likely to change completely and EU unity will be shattered, as several EU countries would align with Trump, elect Trump-like leaders, or strengthen the positions of leaders who imitate Trump.
It’s significant to see three former Italian prime ministers of the centre-left calling on Biden to step aside before the elections.
In separate statements, Matteo Renzi, Enrico Letta, and Romano Prodi, who was also Commission president in 1999-2004, said Biden should pass the baton to someone younger to avoid “unpredictable” consequences.
Democracies don’t interfere in each other’s internal affairs, at least not in public. Elections are sacrosanct internal affairs.
But then again, we come back to the idea that the US is such an important country that we cannot pretend we should just sit back and await the election result on 5 November.
The three Italian tenors who voiced their views are from the opposition. They represent the political spectrum considered partners of the US Democrats. The current Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, would certainly get a boost in case Donald Trump returns to the White House.
This is also likely to strengthen Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Robert Fico in Slovakia, and Dick Schoof in the Netherlands – who are already in power – but also Marine Le Pen in France, Herbert Kickl in Austria and several others who are waiting on the sidelines.
The US has a clearly undiplomatic record in terms of showing its preference ahead of elections in European countries.
In Bulgaria, the country I know best, the US embassy has often made it clear what their preferences are. (Though the message has sometimes backfired, I must admit.)
Perhaps it is time that Europe returns an undiplomatic message to the US, in tune with the three Italian tenors.
The Roundup
Pressure from Germany to reconsider trade tariffs on China-made electric cars is set to intensify in the coming weeks as member states start negotiating their official stance on the issue, after the Commission confirmed on Thursday (4 July) that provisional duties kick in from Friday.
The EU should avoid “counterproductive” measures when tackling farmers’ position in the supply chain and instead remove barriers to investment, Christel Delberghe, director general of retailers’ association EuroCommerce, told Euractiv.
The designated European Commission president is being lobbied by the European hydrogen industry, to ringfence the EU’s upcoming €1.2 billion hydrogen subsidy auction, in favour of EU producers.
German conservative leader Friedrich Merz, the favourite to become chancellor next year, said his government would collaborate with a French cabinet led by the far-right Rassemblement national, which might materialise after this week’s French elections, taking heart from the RN’s harsh stance on the German AfD.
NATO members are increasingly concerned about the risks to the cohesion of the Western military alliance posed by the possible entry of the French far-right into government and whether Paris’ influence and commitment to Ukraine could wane in the near future.
Czechia has been subjected to targeted information operations aimed at reducing support for Ukraine, a recent report by the Czech National Centre for Combating Organised Crime (NCOZ) has revealed.
To stay on top of the EU’s political rollercoaster, don’t miss this week’s EU Politics Decoded, the last one by our Max Griera.
Look out for…
- Commissioner Kadri Simson holds meeting with Argentina’s Foreign Minister Diana Mondino in Buenos Aires on Friday.
- High Representative Josep Borrell in Larissa, Greece, visits EUNAVFOR Operation Aspides Headquarters on Friday.
- Informal meeting of competitiveness ministers (Internal market and industry) on Monday-Tuesday.
Views are the author’s
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]