Only rarely does a new business book appear that so perfectly matches the global moment. As we begin the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, a slow-moving global catastrophe that was both predictable and almost entirely unexpected, companies and organizations are (or should be) looking out at an even more uncertain world and asking themselves, “What’s next?”
In Small Data, Big Disruptions, Martin Schwirn shows them how to anticipate and prepare for the future by finding “little oddities” in the daily avalanche of small data and connecting the dots between them in order to “identify emerging opportunities and foresee future threats.” The four-step foresighting process that Schwirn teaches here is called scanning. It is a well-established and proven method for gathering and analyzing information from an organization’s external environment (the author himself has conducted or directed scanning for more than two decades). But, to my knowledge, this is the first book that has laid out the scanning process in light of the challenges of the twenty-first century. More importantly, it is a clear, careful, and compelling guide to a very powerful tool for embracing uncertainty, understanding future issues, and arriving at the best possible strategic decisions. And Schwirn demonstrates convincingly that any organization can adopt the scanning discipline and get started today.
The book presents a number of impressive scanning success stories. It is also filled with valuable insights gleaned from the author’s long experience at scanning. Scanning requires small data from “credible and diverse sources.” Just as importantly, it requires team members who are themselves diverse and open-minded. He cautions to avoid the temptation of shiny objects. Scanning is not about finding “golden nuggets.” Single data points about self-driving flying cars or geoengineering may be exciting but they are far less useful than less sensational but still unusual data points that can be woven into more powerful patterns.
Small Data, Big Disruptions is, above anything else, a carefully drawn and easy to follow blueprint for a highly disciplined and valuable scanning process for your organization. In less than 200 pages it lays out clearly the whys and hows of scanning in order to navigate the future. If your organization is already doing scanning, this book will teach you how to do it better. If you are not yet doing scanning, it is probably time to get started.
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Embrace uncertainty instead. Learn to understand what future issues will be, where pain points emerge, what changes are ahead. Scanning offers a disciplined way to address the challenges that doing so presents. Four straightforward steps offer strategic foresight, anticipating and envisioning future possible developments (rather than predicting the future or forecasting developments in mathematical models). Strategic foresight addresses the uncertainties decision makers face. Anticipation is the first step to responding correctly and in time when futures become the present. |
Pretrend topics and friction areas together create uncertainty in the marketplace, and both create the fabric of the future. Scanning identifies them. Scanning provides a sounding board to bring them to decision makers’ attention. They enable decision makers to focus on emerging market opportunities and developing corporate vulnerabilities. Scanning does not predict the future; scanning explicitly addresses uncertainty by highlighting the areas of uncertainty. Don’t tune out uncertainties; zero in on them. |
Patterns can serve as important signposts on the path to future markets. As the future unfolds, participants will notice developments that fall into line with issues mentioned in previous scanning sessions; repetitive exposure is the foundation for developing awareness, creating prepared minds. As seeds of information are planted, participants will develop sensitivity to the topic. As they continue to think about the topic, they will encounter related events. Scanning can develop an itch with respect to particular topics; a sense of urgency can develop |
With a limited view, a company must ask not if but when it will find itself surprised by new business parameters that challenge its very existence. Such changes increase the importance of two managerial tasks. The first task involves finding the issues that open business opportunities or pose imminent threats. The second task is to understand their implications. Becoming aware of the world is one thing. Assigning meaning to changes and disruptions is another thing. You can’t do it all at once. The good news is that not everything has to be done simultaneously. And you can somewhat pace yourself by working off topics as you see them becoming relevant for your organization. |
