Samantha Donovan: Well, it's been a night of celebration for left-leaning voters in France, after the rise of the far right was thwarted in the second round of the country's parliamentary election. In a shock result, Marine Le Pen's National Rally Party was relegated to third position, rather than winning an outright majority and installing a new Prime Minister, as she and many commentators had predicted. The vote was topped by an alliance of left-wing parties, followed by the centrist bloc of the President, Emmanuel Macron. This report from Luke Radford.
Luke Radford: For weeks, left-wing voters in Paris had been preparing to face their worst fear. But as polls closed, their apprehension about the much-anticipated victory of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally Party quickly gave way to celebration.
Opinion: Yes, it's a big surprise, this man says. We didn't expect this. I'm very pleased.
Opinion: After the wake of the first-round voting last week, it had appeared that National Rally would either win a majority, or at least become the largest party in France's parliament. But after a coordinated campaign, a coalition of left-wing parties has claimed the most seats, followed by President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, with National Rally in third place. The result also welcomed by this Frenchwoman.
Opinion: France must remain an open country, where we live together with other cultures. It was frustrating to see this happen, but now it hasn't happened.
Luke Radford: Despite their stronger-than-expected result, the left-wing coalition will face challenges almost immediately. While it's secured the most seats, it won't be able to govern on its own, and will need to negotiate an even larger coalition with the centrists. Bronwyn Winter is an emeritus professor in the Department of European Studies at Sydney University.
Bronwyn Winter: The most likely outcome is a coalition between the New Popular Front and Macron's coalition Ensemble. That is the most likely coalition, and that would get an absolute majority in parliament. However, for that coalition to happen, you have to get all the parties in those separate coalitions. So, the New Popular Front has four different parties, Ensemble has a number of different parties. So they all have to get together and agree within their own coalitions to do that. And then you have to have that bigger coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble. And then the question arises, well, who's going to be prime minister?
Luke Radford: Despite the setback, National Rally has still increased its share of the vote, and will now be a larger force in the French parliament than ever before. Professor Winter says they've learnt from their previous electoral defeats.
Bronwyn Winter: They've been around for a long time. They're stayers. They've been in a presidential runoff a couple of times. First Jean-Marie Le Pen, then his daughter Marine. And everybody had to rally to defeat them. So you know, they're not going anywhere. And they've got a new young crowd. They've professionalised the party. They've got more women involved. They've got young men who appeal to youth crowd and so on and so forth. So they're not dead in the water by any stretch of the imagination.
Luke Radford: And while National Rally's abrupt defeat has shocked many, Professor Simon Tormey from Deakin University says it's not an uncommon outcome under France's voting system.
Simon Tormey: But this is what the French are used to doing. This is not unusual. It's what they call the faire barrage. In other words, you're creating a dam against the onward march or something that you don't like the look of. And in this case, of course, it's National Rally.
Luke Radford: France will go to the polls again in 2027 when the office of the president is once again up for grabs. And according to Simon Tormey, that will be the defining point in National Rally's fight to control France's political landscape.
Simon Tormey: So they have advanced. The question is, at what point do they topple over into power? And if it's not in 2024, will it be in 2027 when we, of course, we get the next presidential election when, of course, Marine Le Pen will put herself forward? And we don't know who will come up from the centre and from the left because Emmanuel Macron will have done his two terms and we need a fresh new political figure to contest that election. It may be at that point the French are ready then to welcome National Rally. But it was supposed to be this election. It didn't happen. And a lot of people around the place are breathing a sigh of relief.
Samantha Donovan: Professor Simon Tormey from Deakin Uni, that report from Luke Radford.