What if, in an alternate timeline, Commodore Matthew Perry never gained access to Japan and sakoku continued? How would WWII unfold? What would be the global impact?
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$\begingroup$ What is the 'sakoku', and what where it's effects on the war, the people, and history to begin with? $\endgroup$– Fayth85Commented Sep 5, 2016 at 0:20
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$\begingroup$ The Russia (Yevfimy Putyatin) arrived only a month later than Perry, and after that Dutch, UK and France.. so not much.. $\endgroup$– Thỏ GiàCommented Sep 5, 2016 at 0:22
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$\begingroup$ What if Perry never gained access to Japan even by using force? is that the question? $\endgroup$– VincentCommented Sep 5, 2016 at 4:01
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2$\begingroup$ Hello Jun, welcome to Worldbuiding SE. We're a site to help writers etc. to solve problems with the background of their fictional worlds. We are not really a general "what if" chatroom, even if it looks that way at times. So the question is what kind of story you want to tell, and if blocking Perry helps you to get there. $\endgroup$– o.m.Commented Sep 5, 2016 at 5:18
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$\begingroup$ Not Perry blocking but no Meiji restoration or Japanese participation in ww2 is probably what Jun means, if I'm guessing right. An alternate ww2 timeline story but not enough detail in the question. Would you like to edit, Jun? $\endgroup$– artemissunshineCommented Sep 5, 2016 at 7:24
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1 Answer
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More history than world building. Like everything history, this will mean a loooooong answer (oh no!)
Cometh the time, cometh the man. Firstly it must be mentioned that the Americans were trying to open up Japan for quite some time before the Perry Expedition. Not only did the Americans need coaling stations for their trans-Pacific ships (the nearest was Hawaii) and safe passage for ship wrecked sailors, they knew they were also late on the Asian trading scene - the Dutch monopolized the Japan trade, occupying current day Indonesia; the British with their strategically located colonies in Hong Kong, Singapore and the Indian subcontinent were able to dictate extremely humiliating terms to and open up trade with closed China just years prior; the waning Spanish/Portugese still had access to Philippines (later taken by America in the Spanish-American war), Indian Portugal or Goa and Macao. There was very little foothold for the Americans that did not involve European powers and Japan was one these few. If not Commodore Perry, the Americans would have tried again and again with increasing violence till they succeeded.
Consider the world in which this was happening. The Sakoku or the closed country edict of 1635 itself was prompted during a time when European powers were rapidly expanding and gaining colonies through a mix of force, guile, religious convictions and military superiority in Asia, Africa and Americas. The battle of Sekigahara and other such gun-armed conflicts were prime examples of how even small rag-tag groups trained with guns could overwhelm larger numbers of trained traditional samurai. The bakumatsu era dealt with the threat of being overwhelmed by foreign powers by closing the country completely and insulating it from the outside world. Technology, atleast military technology, remained where it was for about 300 years while the rest of the world 'progressed'. The Japanese government of the time would not have been able to resist the Americans if the situation had escalated.
While the shogunate collapsed as a direct result of the Perry expedition and their ineffective handling of the situation, the Meiji restoration, rapid modernization and the subsequent push for world recognition was truly unprecedented and unexpected. Few could have foreseen it coming. While the Perry expedition was the cause of the collapse before the restoration, it was not the cause of the restoration. It was the decision makers that steered the nation after the collapse who take the credit for transforming a medieval society into a modern one in a very short time. The technological prowess that powered WW2 stemmed from these years. It is an uncomfortable period to talk about but without the Meiji restoration, Japan would have remained a small player on the scene without much role to play in any of the world wars.
The world of early 20th century was a different time - ideas that would be seen as downright racist or anti-humanitarian today were then accepted as legitimate intellectual thought. Some countries and their leaders participated in some very reprehensible actions taking these ideas to extremes. If Japan had not colonised Manchuria and Korea (after Meiji restoration), Tsarist Russia would have expanded into the power vacuum. Neither of the colonists were much concerned for the civilians of the countries they occupied. Whether the scale of regrettable massacres, deaths and repression would have been larger or smaller is a matter of speculation. Whether Russia would have wanted to annex Japan is also a matter of speculation.
A larger Russia would have meant a more powerful Soviet power in WW2. Would it have deterred Hitler from breaking the non-aggression pact with Stalin? Probably not but an intriguing thought since we know that this was one of the major causes of Axis defeat. Once the focus was divided away from invasion of western Europe, it gave the Allied powers a chance to regroup. Had this not happened, the whole of Europe would probably have been overrun.
Without imperial Japan, WW2 would not have reached the Pacific. Perhaps America may not have joined WW2. If so, Soviet Russia would have been the dominant Allied power and able to wield a much larger influence post WW2. Given the existence of two large super powers across the Pacific and the saying that near neighbours will always fight over fences, what form the Cold War would have taken is speculation.
Hope that helps. (Oh boy, that really was too long and speculative)
