Rob Palfrey

Lessons learned from #Ukraine are absolutely essential for countries striving to improve their societal #resilience. ”As such, preparedness and resilience in democracies should be viewed not just as a defensive measure but as a strategic approach that actively shapes global peace and security dynamics.”

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👍 Reassuring to see the UK's very own "iron dome" come one stage closer last week, as flagged below by UK Defence Journal, as we continue to see alarming pictures of the dire results of missile attacks on Ukraine. ☑ The UK Ministry of Defence has announced a comprehensive framework for missile defence research and development, known snappily as "Science and Technology Oriented Research and Development in Missile Defence" (STORM). ☑ The contract will manage the delivery of research covering all activities to counter ballistic missiles and advanced threats. More detail in https://lnkd.in/enr2M9yp plus https://lnkd.in/exN3sBnu ☑ One of the big (expensive) issues to be considered, I'm sure/hope, in the new Government's forthcoming Strategic Defence Review. #ukairdefence #defencetechnology #defencecapability #ballisticmissiledefence #strategicdefencereview #makeukdefence

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A interesting read in Defense News on the recovery of the Russian military from the early phases of the conflict in Ukraine. Some observations of mine: 1️⃣ Your industrial base matters - this gives you the capacity to fight. If it isn’t within your borders, get in line and wait. 2️⃣ War stocks - the ability to supply the consumables of combat quickly and put quantity into the fight is a huge advantage. 3️⃣ Keep it simple - easy to train, easier to maintain, easier to repair and easier to replace. Avoid Rolls Royce solutions when a Toyota Camry will do. 4️⃣ Innovation - it never stops and doesn’t have to be particularly glamorous (see Turtle Tanks) #futureready #defenceindustry #pacingthreat #geopolitics

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🧵Quick budget takeaways for Defence (more to follow once the Portfolio Budget Statements) are available: 1) As expected given the recent release of the #NDS24 nothing new in the top numbers. 2) Whilst Defence was mentioned in the budget speech, it really only had a cursory mention. A clear focus on domestic cost of living issues. Understandable given the difficult fiscal environment. However, given the strategic circumstances outlined in the NDS - this demonstrates why we need to convince the Australian public Defence spending matters - our strategic situation is not improving. 3) Clear themes around economic resilience and supply chains. Good to here from a wider national security perspective. Both very important issues - but the proof will be in the pudding so to speak. Need to look at the numbers and policies. 4) @andrewtillett (who’s clearly seen the PBS) is reporting that Defence recruitment and top levels numbers continues to worsen. However, I would say that the Defence growth rate announced in 22 with the Defence workforce growth submission was always optimistic. https://lnkd.in/gipE2i8m Whilst we do need to address the clear recruitment issues for Defence - which the ‘jointery’ recruiting approach isn’t helping, I’m still gobsmacked that nobody is seriously asking questions about ADF structure. There are many ways to create capacity. 5) Good to here veteran support measures flagged in the budget speech - but the detail matters here. There have been many tokenistic measures announced by both Govt’s in recent years to assist veterans - hopefully this will be something of more substance. 6) Whilst there is an increase in Defence spending over the forward estimates and next 10yrs (as we were told when the NDS dropped) - as highlighted when the NDS was released there is still a significant gap in ADF capability over the next 10 (maybe 15) years. This gap coincides with the most strategically unstable geopolitical situation since WWII. This remains a large risk. Just a reminder below 👇- how expensive conflict is if your deterrence strategy (your defence insurance policy) fails…

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Will the UEFA Euro football tournament in Germany and the forthcoming Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games be safe from terrorist threats? We all hope so but the rising threat from ISIS Khorasan is a growing concern. In this interview with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, USA, I discuss how the risks from terrorism can be mitigated in major sporting events, drawing on the lessons from the 2012 London Olympic & Paralympic Games.

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AIGP Tom Magambo: Mindset change and training are transforming @CIDUG into a force to be reckoned with. The Country is proud of the progress and dedication of our officers. #CIDPerformanceReview

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🎺 New MOD Labour Ministerial Team, detailed portfolios allocated 🎺 📑 Do scan the "Our Ministers" section of the MOD website, https://lnkd.in/e_ShaG_K, for the details of who's covering exactly what within the new Labour Ministerial Team. 📑 For ease of reference, I append all the responsibilities of the two senior (John Healey and Maria Eagle) Ministers below, my own [ ]: 📑 John Healey, Secretary of State : strategic campaign and operational oversight including as a member of the National Security Council  Nuclear Deterrent (CAS-D) and operations policy and enterprise Strategic Defence Review Euro-Atlantic strategy and planning  defence strategy, planning, programme, and resource allocation relationships with strategic international partners: US, France, Germany, Australia, Ukraine [AUKUS lead?]  One Defence reform oversight of Veterans Strategy Afghan Inquiry service personnel deaths on duty and letters of condolence  strategic multilateral programmes regulatory functions 📑 Maria Eagle, Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry ["and Industry" is a telling sign of fresh priorities] defence procurement defence industrial strategy [nb specifically included as a function]  economic growth and export campaigns export licensing and controls defence industry relationships acquisition reform equipment plan defence estates Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO)  Defence Digital science and technology  research and development single source contract regulations shipbuilding [so a “Tsarina” post Ben Wallace’s having this role himself - and reduced to MoS level as such] multi-lateral capability programmes and organisations 📑 That's a lot of reading-in! And a lot to do, with a defence review beckoning. #defencepolicy #mod #politicaltransition #politics #defenceindustrialstrategy

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🎙 NATO and the EU - who does what for European defence? "So I think there are a lot of questions out there, in terms of the key role that NATO has to play in setting, developing and enforcing military standards, in setting the priority requirements when it comes to capabilities and readiness and force structure, and also when it comes to developing and strengthening the transatlantic, defense industrial base, because ultimately, this is we face global issues both as NATO and as the EU. We have a global defense industry. And at the time when we see Russia and other authoritarian countries coming closer and closer together, including importing weapons that Russia can use against Ukraine, it makes no sense for democracies to drift apart. I think this is a time for all of us to invest in what keeps us together." Listen to the full episode with Rebecca Christie, Oana Lungescu and Guntram Wolff at the link below ⤵ https://lnkd.in/edBjJY7b

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🌎 UK National Security Advisors: much change, less apparent continuity 🛰 1️⃣ The Prime Minister has appointed (Royal Marine) General Gwyn Jenkins as the Government's new National Security Advisor (NSA). General Jenkins, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff since August 2022, replaces Sir Tim Barrow in the summer. Congratulations: big job in highly troubled times. 2️⃣ General Jenkins has the distinct advantage of having long worked at the heart of Government, both as PM David Cameron's Military Assistant in 2012-14 and as Deputy National Security Advisor in 2015-17, so that personal link to the now Foreign Secretary seems plain. 3️⃣ However, he will still be the the 7th permanent NSA in the 14 years since David Cameron created the role in 2010. Only Kim Darroch and Mark Sedwill served for more than three years. I wonder how long Jenkins will be given to hone and oversee the best possible, consistent strategic advice for the National Security Council and the Government as a whole? 4️⃣ (Lord) Maurice Hankey's long innings as Secretary to the latter's rough, 20th century predecessor, the Committee for Imperial Defence, might take some beating though, at a mere 26 years. https://lnkd.in/eMZ_yQKV #ukgovernment #defencepolicy #foreignpolicy #securitypolicy #whitehall

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📢 Strengthening NATO's Role in the Indo-Pacific 📢 Peter Olive, Former Commodore in the UK's Royal Navy, provides a detailed analysis of how NATO can enhance its efforts to deter conflict and ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region. His insights underscore the need for proactive and strategic measures. Read the full article for a comprehensive understanding of NATO's potential in the region in #Pacnet 46: https://lnkd.in/gKjxdMYS #NATO #IndoPacific #Security #Geopolitics #PeterOlive #PacificForum #InternationalRelations #Defense #UKRoyalNavy #PolicyAnalysis

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NATO’s Defence Industrial Production Board met for the second time at NATO HQ in April to deliver recommendations and advice to NATO’s National Armaments Directors. The Senior Representatives from Allied nations, representing 55% of the world’s military expenditure (SIPRI), provide their expert review of proposals to sustainably increase industrial capacity, approaches to secure defence critical supply chains and took a deeper look at the interoperability challenges surrounding energetics and components for battle decisive munitions, including considering options for strategic stockpiling. The Senior Representatives gave their direction and guidance on these complex, global challenges that require equally as nuanced responses. Our NATO Industrial Advisory Group counterparts are a critical, strategic partner in this conversation - integrated by design. #nodefencewithoutindustry #NATO #NATOindustry #NIAG Per Christensen Denis Lizandier Andreas Paraskevopoulos Anna Furs Ana Shkembi Antonia Maria Mann Marco Vento NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCI Agency) Ron Nulkes Pablo Gonzalez Tuija Karanko

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🔴 We are live at Counter Terror Expo! Today our Executive Director, Adam Hadley intervened in a panel at #CTX2024 on how to prevent and undermine terrorist information operations. He stated that "Terrorists are deliberate and strategic in the way in which they use the internet to achieve their own objectives, in some ways similar to various nation states. We believe it's only by understanding the intent of terrorist organisations and the strategic objectives that they wish to achieve, that we stand a good chance of disrupting their activity". Would you like to know more on how we disrupt terrorist activity online? Click the link: https://lnkd.in/eQvs29e7 #Counterterrorism #OnlineCounterterrorism #ContentModeration #TerroristContentAnalyticsPlatform #TCAP #OnlineRadicalisation

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This is an excellent piece by Clementine Starling and General James Cartwright (Ret.) on the role of our special operations forces in today's world. SOF are still really good at what we've asked them to do the last two decades, but we need to recognize there's so much more they can and must do. https://lnkd.in/eafQyTJ3

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"The call for a jointly funded ground defence line on the eastern border of the European Union comes on top of an earlier initiative by Greece and Poland to create an EU air defence system, modelled on the Israeli Iron Dome, that would coordinate the now separate air defence systems of EU countries." (Daily Mail, UK, 28/0/06/2024) The Great Wall of Europe is becoming a reality. From Finland, along the Baltic and Ukrainian eastern borders of Russia and Belorussia, a sentried, impenetrable, physical barrier wall is being constructed to keep the illegal, immoral Russian army of Vladimir Putin out of Europe. An EU Air Defence System "wall" must follow. In addition to this, Europe and its allies must consider putting an end to the war by going into Ukraine promptly. They can do this freely because Ukraine is a sovereign nation and is not answerable to Russia's escalatory comments of retaliation. Ukrainian territory which has become occupied by Russia is still Ukrainian territory - nothing has changed. It can only become Russian territory if Ukraine cedes it. Ukraine has declared that this will not be the case and the illegal occupier must be ejected. The fastest most effective way to do this is from the air. A liberating international force to eject Russian illegal occupiers from the occupied lands could be deployed quickly to destroy the Russian artificial borders that the invaders have built with mines and trenches to demarcate captured eastern Ukrainian territory. Significantly, Ukraine and its allies do not need to enter Russian territory to achieve its liberation in this way. This can be carried out by any nation who is able and willing to send their assets of equipment and personnel to achieve liberation from this extreme criminal element and global order threat. Importantly, it will cost less than the weapons currently being sent to Ukraine and will conclude faster. It is time to relieve the battle fatigue and spare our weapons to arm the rightfully restored Ukrainian sentried borders. It is time to restore Ukraine and the European Peace.

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This article has great insights as to why so many of us are still alive in Ukraine. Think about the training possibilities that Ukraine can provide to both the military and civilian populations. Start now before it's too late

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Food for thought... An insightful analysis by Paul Globe of The Jamestown Foundation sheds light on why Norway's Svalbard Archipelago could become a focal point for Moscow's potential first move on NATO soil. The article highlights Russia's increasing interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized area, attributed to Norway's imposition of sanctions, climate change effects, and Russian strategic concerns regarding the defense of the Northern Sea Route's western entrance. Moreover, the presence of Chinese researchers in Spitsbergen, the availability of coal resources, and a substantial private land parcel for sale in the archipelago might further fuel Moscow's interest in Svalbard. #FoodForThought #Analysis #GlobalRelations #Svalbard #Russia #Norway #NATO #Insights

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NEW REPORT LAUNCH 📍 'Mission control: A how-to guide to delivering mission-led government'. Missions have quickly risen the political agenda, and form the backbone of Labour's election offer. This report provides a practical blueprint for delivering them. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/eKQZBFkp

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