What are the possible outcomes of a Democratic-controlled government? The outcome of the presidential and congressional elections this November will be pivotal for the outlook in 2025 and beyond. This week, join Bernard Yaros Jr., Lead Economist, as he examines the impact of a potential Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress. Download the full research briefing here: https://okt.to/CNSdMz #beyondtheheadlines #USelections2024 #Bidenomics
Oxford Economics
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At Oxford Economics, we equip our clients with the data and understanding they need to navigate an uncertain, fast-changing and challenging global economic and business environment. Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 and today is one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, with more than 20 offices around the world. We are a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers, providing best-in-class economic analysis and advice, forecasts, analytical tools and data. Our worldwide client base now spans more than 2,000 international organisations, including blue-chip multinationals, banks, asset managers, governments, central banks, academic institutions and trade associations. Our world-leading products and services cover a range of capabilities to meet every client requirement: ■ Macro and sector forecasting ■ City and regional forecasts and location analysis ■ Developing custom business and product market forecasts, analyses and scenarios ■ Demonstrating economic impact, social value and evaluating policy changes ■ Risk management ■ Policy modelling ■ Thought leadership
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http://www.oxfordeconomics.com
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Updates
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A murky way forward for French politics. https://okt.to/IYxOsJ The second round of the French snap elections resulted in a hung parliament, as we expected. The way ahead is currently very blurry, with outcomes ranging from a minority left-wing government to a grand coalition of moderate parties, or even a technocratic government. No matter what the eventual compromise is, political instability will remain a feature of French politics for the foreseeable future. #frenchelection #politics
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Mid-way into 2024, SFC Markets and Finance, a leading financial show in China, invited Oxford Economics’ CEO Adrian Cooper to share his insights on global economic outlook and China economy. Major central banks are now leaning toward lowering interest rates - what changes will the recent moves of major central banks bring to the global economy for the remainder of the year? What will the global impact of the U.S. election look like? What role will China play in the Tech sector? What are the biggest challenges facing the global economy? Find out more in the full interview: https://okt.to/cUhWpl
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How will the forecast change after election day? Join our experts as we explore this big question. We will discuss the economy's performance across our scenarios for multiple scenarios; Trump, divided government and for Biden. However, what we do know is the take away no matter the president and the political balance of power in Congress is that the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in stronger, leading to a more cautious easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. Register now: https://okt.to/mYtRdP
How the forecast may change after election day
oxfordeconomics.com
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Watch our #MENA Chart of the week. John Payne our Senior Economist discusses how Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian wins Iran's election runoff. Click below to sign up to our MENA blog: https://okt.to/v83bnI #MIAM #Iran #Elections
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We forecast robust short-term #consumer #spending growth across all major #US #metros with Austin, Denver, Phoenix, San Jose, and Houston leading the pack. These metros' #tech sectors will give them the edge on income #growth. Midwest and East coast metros will trail. To learn more about the prospects for US metros, read our latest US regional outlook: https://okt.to/ylzcWK
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🧾Is employment going to grow in the eurozone? 🔗Discover more insights here: https://okt.to/n1fiFL We expect employment growth in the eurozone to continue slowing despite the economic recovery gathering speed. Future employment will be constrained by demographics and by the unemployment rate falling only slightly, given it is at a historical low and close to its long-term natural level. This will favour less dormant wage growth than before the pandemic. #EurozoneEconomy #JobMarket #WageGrowth
Eurozone: Jobs engine to roar but decelerate heading for new balance
oxfordeconomics.com
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What are the key differences across our US election scenarios? During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in stronger, leading to a more cautious easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. It’s only the degree to which GDP and inflation are higher under the next president that differs depending on the political configuration. Download the full summary of our election scenarios here: https://okt.to/VY5qOd #USElections2024 #USEconomy #federalreserve
Summarizing our US election scenarios
oxfordeconomics.com
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How is subdued consumer spending growth affecting cities across Europe? https://okt.to/JDzpWK In 2024, we forecast a modest GDP growth of 1.7% on average across European cities. Higher interest rates are impacting households and businesses, keeping consumer spending growth weak at just 1.4% this year. However, there's hope on the horizon with an expected improvement to 2.2% in 2025. Central and Eastern European cities are set to lead this spending growth, while some major western cities might lag. Easing inflation will help alleviate pressures on incomes, but challenges remain. #Economy #ConsumerSpending #GDP #Europe #EconomicForecast
Subdued consumer spending growth across European cities
oxfordeconomics.com
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How vulnerable is the global economy to disruptions in the semiconductor supply chain? Contingency planning for possible disruptions caused by rising geopolitical tensions is an increasingly important factor in business strategy planning. We have developed a globally consistent framework showing cross-country GDP vulnerabilities to an escalation in China-Taiwan tensions, focused on disruption to the global semiconductor supply chain. Download the full report here: https://okt.to/C3Mi20 #geopoliticalrisk #semiconductors #GDP
Measuring cross-country exposure to China-Taiwan tensions
oxfordeconomics.com