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Time series benchmarking/reconciliation and revisions - are there methods that minimise revisions?

I am using the tempdisagg R package for benchmarking quarterly time series to annual time series from different (more trusted) sources (by temporally disaggragating the annual data using the quarterly ...
SiKiHe's user avatar
  • 465
0 votes
0 answers
24 views

Does $p=0 \implies \sum_{i=1}^{p} \phi_i L^i = 0$?

Let us take this $\operatorname{AR}(p)$ equation $$\left(1 - \sum_{i=1}^{p} \phi_i L^i \right)X_t = \mu + \epsilon_t$$ as an example. When $p=0$ I read this to mean \begin{align*} \mu + \epsilon_t &...
Galen's user avatar
  • 9,411
2 votes
1 answer
547 views

Why does absolutely-summable weights ensures a linear series itself summable (convergent)? Some questions on def'n of Linear Series

A "linear series" $y_t$ is the linear combination $$y_t - \mu = \sum_{i=-\infty}^{\infty}\psi_iL^i\nu_t = \sum_{i=-\infty}^{\infty}\psi_i\nu_{t-i}=S(L)\nu_t $$ of weighted (by $\psi_i$ weights) lags ...
Erdogan CEVHER's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
1k views

Understanding the infinite sum of random variables

I am doing a course on time series analysis, and am struggling with this definition: We call a weakly stationary process $\{X_t\}$ invertible with respect to a white noise $\{\epsilon_t\}$ if ...
Henry's user avatar
  • 175
5 votes
1 answer
481 views

Is the sum of trends of two time series the trend of the sum of the time series?

Let's say I have two time-series, A and B. I build time-series C as C=A+B. I estimate the trend of A, let's say I get +0.5 (Theil-Sen). I estimate the trend of B, let's say I get -0.4 (Theil-Sen). ...
Javi_VM's user avatar
  • 153
8 votes
1 answer
2k views

Sum of forecasts

I have a question regarding forecast. I'm building an inventory model around warehouses, where all warehouses have multiple customers/countries assigned. I have data on sales for all countries ...
pk_22's user avatar
  • 265
0 votes
1 answer
34 views

Solving for a difference equation for $s_{t}$

Given $f_{t}=u_{t} - \bar{P}$ and the law of motion for $u_{t} = \rho u_{t-1} + \epsilon_{t}$, where $0<\rho<1$, $\epsilon_{t}$ is mean-zero iid and can be interpreted as a domestic price level ...
OGC's user avatar
  • 229
0 votes
1 answer
172 views

Understanding summations in COV formula for time series

I am looking through Time Series Analysis: With Applications in R (my first exposure to time series) and refreshing summations. I. When given the following rule: COV[$\sum_{i=1}^{m} c_{i}Y_{t_{i}},\...
B_Miner's user avatar
  • 8,810