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Space Exploration

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    $\begingroup$ This! The huge variations in drag over the eleven year solar makes predicting drag very hard, and a bit of a fiction. The large (but not quite huge) variation over the short term makes predicting the day on which a satellite will reenter so hard. One good solar flare, which can happen even in weak solar cycles (e.g., the Carrington Event), can make the Earth's atmosphere swell up like an overheated marshmallow. $\endgroup$
    – David Hammen
    Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 1:31
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    $\begingroup$ @David Hammen: A cite from the presentation: "During the great geomagnetic storm of 13-14 March 1989, tracking of thousands of space objects was lost. One LEO satellite lost over 30 kilometers of altitude, and hence significant lifetime, during this storm." $\endgroup$
    – Uwe
    Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 8:03
  • $\begingroup$ Yikes! What a beautiful, interesting mess! $\endgroup$
    – uhoh
    Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 10:23
  • $\begingroup$ @Uwe Has NORAD ever experienced a catastrophic event and "lost" a bunch of satellites? $\endgroup$
    – uhoh
    Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 10:32
  • $\begingroup$ "Diurnal (day/night) effect with 250 % and a period of 1 day" do you mean a period of 1 orbit (e.g. 90 minutes)? $\endgroup$
    – uhoh
    Commented Aug 27, 2021 at 23:43