Skip to main content
A few fixes from @Brythan
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79

enter image description hereHomicides per million in England and Wales graph

enter image description hereAdjusted version of graph

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 of gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun vs non-gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important negative factor in homicide rates (ie. more legal handguns means less homicides), then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

enter image description here

enter image description here

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important factor in homicide rates then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

Homicides per million in England and Wales graph

Adjusted version of graph

While in both countries about 3/4 of gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun vs non-gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important negative factor in homicide rates (ie. more legal handguns means less homicides), then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

Rollback to Revision 10
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79

The numbers are cherry-picked.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

Homicides per million in England and Wales graphenter image description here

Adjusted version of graphenter image description here

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% (90% if limited to just those cases where the type of gun was known) of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important factor in homicide rates then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

Homicides per million in England and Wales graph

Adjusted version of graph

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries about 3/4 gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% (90% if limited to just those cases where the type of gun was known) of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

enter image description here

enter image description here

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important factor in homicide rates then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

deleted 171 characters in body
Source Link
Brythan
  • 10.2k
  • 5
  • 47
  • 53

The numbers are cherry-picked.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

enter image description hereHomicides per million in England and Wales graph

enter image description hereAdjusted version of graph

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% (90% if limited to just those cases where the type of gun was known) of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important factor in homicide rates then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

enter image description here

enter image description here

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries gun homicides are about 3/4 committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

If their argument is correct, if handgun ownership even at the minuscule 1997 UK level of 0.1% is supposed to be the most important factor in homicide rates then the US with 20-25% gun ownership should have a very low homicide rate. But this clearly is not true.

The numbers are cherry-picked.

Very low UK homicide numbers are susceptible to how individual events are reported.

Homicides per million in England and Wales graph

Adjusted version of graph

There was a slow upward trend through 2000.

The "spike" happened years after the ban.

US and UK gun crime and ownership are very, very different.

0.1% of the population turned in handguns.

~7% of UK homicides are with a gun, ~67% in the US.

While in both countries about 3/4 gun homicides are committed with handguns, there is an enormous difference in the ratio of gun homicides in general. According to the UNODC Homicides By Firearms, about 67% (90% if limited to just those cases where the type of gun was known) of homicides in the US are committed with a firearm vs about 7% (the number varies a bit) in the UK.

US homicide rates are 5x the UK, yet they have so many more guns.

The US murder rate is the highest in the Western world at about 5 per 100,000 people, whereas the UK is at about 1 per 100,000, but the US has 16 times as many guns.

Add some notes about how to spot a rise that's part of an existing up/down trend vs a true anomalous event.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Small corrections in years.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Looking at the numbers again, 2000 was inside the existing trend. The "spike" happened in 2001.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Remove correcting the outliers as they are insignificant and proving a distraction. Only fix the misattributions.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
added 58 characters in body
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Explain the outliers and real trend a bit more.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
The "spike" isn't real.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Remove "we", I'm from the US.
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
added 1597 characters in body
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading
Source Link
Schwern
  • 20.4k
  • 8
  • 77
  • 79
Loading