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#Bitcoin's rally has picked up this morning after gaining steam over the weekend, which coincided with the German government finishing its nearly $2.9 billion worth of Bitcoin liquidations. The sales began in the beginning of June 2024, which weighed heavily on BTC price. Bitcoin fell over 25% from a peak of $72k to $51.5k in a span of just under 30 days. With the overhang of a big seller now out of the way, Bitcoin has rebounded nicely, recovering above its 200-day moving average after trading underneath it for 1.5 weeks. Another positive sign we are seeing is U.S #BTCETFs have been seeing some significant inflows. July 12 alone saw over $300 million of net inflows and last week's total inflows amounted to over $1 billion. However, even with the strength that BTC is exhibiting currently, we are not yet out of the woods, as #MtGox is slated to distribute the bulk of its BTCs back to creditors in the coming weeks. The Mt. Gox creditor repayment timeline notes that refunds are being processed through five exchanges, each with varying timelines for coin distribution. Some entities have already received and distributed their allocated funds, but the exact timing for when the remaining exchanges will distribute coins remains unclear. What we do know is that Kraken has the longest window among the exchanges, with 90 days to complete distribution. Bitstamp has a 60-day timeframe, while BitGo has a 20-day deadline. With the announcement release indicating that July 5 was when distributions began, that gives us an approximate date of July 25 as a day to keep in mind. For more analysis, please check out our latest weekly recap: To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

Fears of a potential sell-off from Mt. Gox and the German Government led to Bitcoin’s sharp decline last week. Mt Gox currently holds 141.678K BTCs, but only 2701.8 BTCs have been moved to exchanges so far. However, the payout process to Mt Gox creditors could extend over several weeks or months, contributing to prolonged market uncertainty about the timing and the extend of sell-offs. The German government confiscated 50,000 BTCs from the film piracy site Movie2K back in January and was recently active in selling BTCs. The German government has already sent approximately $269 million worth of the seized BTCs to crypto exchanges, with further selling also expected to impact BTC price. Another fear in the market has been from miner capitulation. According to data provider CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market may be nearing a bottom, as miners are approaching capitulation after enduring a period of intense selling pressure. This pattern, similar to previous cycles, hints at potential market stabilization in the near future. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

We have two outlooks for #BTC. The optimistic outlook has BTC trading within the $60-70k range for 1-3 months, awaiting a catalyst such as the U.S. election to break past its $70k resistance to new all-time highs. The less favorable scenario sees BTC dropping below $57-59k, possibly finding support around $48-50k. As such, we plan to stay neutral on BTC allocation while maintaining an overweight position in #ETH due to the anticipated spot ETF launch around mid-July. We’re adding Toncoin (#TON) to our protocol investments. TON has been displaying undeniable strength through its usage metrics via several dapps. This activity plus a bullish technical structure in the token price even during this downturn in the overall market has us believing that it could be see even more upside should a bullish sentiment return once again. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

Last week, the Supreme Court overturned the #ChevronDoctrine, which allowed agencies like the SEC to make regulatory changes without Congressional consent by deferring to regulators' expertise when statutes were ambiguous. The implication of this development is that it gives the crypto industry a potential advantage, since now the SEC and CFTC will need to be more cautious in extending their reach without clear statutory authorization. With upcoming cases against Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken, the crypto industry is hopeful that courts will now interpret statutory law independently of the SEC. The approaching ETH ETF launch could be the catalyst the crypto industry needs, and perhaps a few regulatory victories in the near future will provide the fuel we need to push prices higher. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

GSG is proud to have partnered with Zuhlke in the building of GSG's digital asset infrastructure technology ARKHON. From day 1, GSG and Zuhlke shared a vision of building bank-grade infrastructure to bridge the ever widening gap between the traditional financial ecosystem and the fast evolving digital asset ecosystem. To this day, Zulhlke's experience, engineering and ways of working remain part of ARKHON's DNA.

While the overall weekly performance for all #cryptocurrencies was negative, #Bitcoin and #Ethereum exhibited different trends. Bitcoin faced ongoing outflows from spot ETFs and sustained selling pressure on Coinbase. On the other hand, Ethereum showed relative resilience despite the general market downturn, and even slightly boosted its dominance. However, the regulatory landscape remains complex, particularly around staking. While Consensys celebrated a victory with the SEC ending its investigation, broader concerns about the classification of staked ETH persist. The SEC's scrutiny continues, especially after settlements with major exchanges over staking services and ongoing debates about whether staking constitutes an investment contract add to the uncertainty. Despite these challenges, recent regulatory developments offer hope, suggesting a possible easing of stances by regulatory bodies toward Ethereum and its ecosystem. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

Crypto markets seek relief this week after last week's positive inflation data and Fed rate decision failed to reverse the downtrend. Key data releases (jobless claims, manufacturing PMI) this week might offer insights into a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy. #Bitcoin's rejection from $72k keeps its pricing hovering in the $60-70k range; falling below $62-64k could trigger fears of price dropping under $59k due to increased miner selling. We're closely watching the #ETHBTC chart for a breakout, possibly around the time of the spot #ETHETF launch. Analysts predict a July 2 launch, but the SEC suggests late summer. A launch could push ETHBTC to 0.08, equating to a USD price above $5k for ETH, which would also benefit ETH-related altcoins. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

The week ahead should be dominated by conversations surrounding the U.S. Fed rate decision, as well as inflation numbers which we will get mid-week. The chances of a rate change are now nearly 100% after last week's employment numbers, so the focus will be mainly on whether any rate cut will occur in 2024 at all. We'll keep an eye on the statements made by committee members once the rate decision has been announced. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

#BTC seems to be stuck in a “no trading zone” currently. In our May 20 weekly recap newsletter, we outlined a head and shoulders formation that played out which we first mentioned as a possibility on May 6. In that update, we mentioned that for the head and shoulders to truly play out to completion, we'll need to see continuation and the target that is set by the formation is roughly $76k. Looking at the charts, this is still in the play. Backing this up is the #ElliotWave theory’s “Impulse” wave pattern, hinting at a five-wave move towards our goal. But that’s not all – the market’s got its eyes on the May jobs report, due at the end of the week. This report is crucial as it’s the last update before the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting. Market jitters and uncertainty about potential rate cuts could make waves. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital

For June, we're cautiously optimistic about #BTC and #ETH breaking above $71.5k and $4k. Our #GSGM+ portfolio will only remain overweight in ETH, as we'll allocate more to #altcoins this month. We're focusing our protocol investments on #SOL and #NEAR, which are demonstrating sustained relative strength among Layer 1 chains. We expect ETH's strength to boost ETH-related blue chips and are overweighting the top 3 #DeFi protocols on Ethereum: #UNI, #AAVE, and #MKR. Additionally, we're including #LINK and #ONDO, two leading tokens in sectors that have been showing outperformance in recent times. To get our more frequent views on the market check out our X feed @gsg_digital