'Hold it up!' said Gandalf, 'and look inside.' As Bingo did so he saw fine lines, more fine than the finest pen strokes, running along the inside of the Ring - lines of fire that seemed to form the letters of a strange alphabet. They shone bright, piercingly bright, and yet it seemed remotely, as if out of a great depth.
'I cannot read the fiery letters,' said Bingo in a quavering voice.
'No,' said Gandalf; 'but I can - now. The writing says:
One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.
That is part of a verse that I know now in full.
History of Middle-earth VI The Return of the Shadow Part 2: "The Second Phase" Chapter XV: "Ancient History"
At this time also he underlined the words 'Why did the Dark Lord desire it so?', put an exclamation mark against them, and wrote:
Because if he had it he could see where all the others were, and would be master of their masters - control all the dwarf-hoards, and the dragons, and know the secrets of the Elf-kings, and the secret [? plans] of evil men.
Here the central idea of the Ruling Ring is clearly present at last, and it may be that it was here that it first emerged.
History of Middle-earth VI The Return of the Shadow Part 1: "The First Phase" Chapter XIII: "Queries and Alterations"
My guess - it can hardly be more - is that in October 1938 the third phase had not been begun, or had not proceeded far, since the boot was 'in rather an illegible state', while when my father wrote of having had to set the work aside in December 1938 it was to the third phase that he was referring
History of Middle-earth VI The Return of the Shadow Part 3: "The Third Phase" Chapter XIX: "The Third Phase (1): The Journey to Bree"
This fifth volume of The History of Middle-earth completes the presentation and analysis of my father's writings on the subject of the First Age up to the time at the end of 1937 and the beginning of 1938 when he set them for long aside.
History of Middle-earth V The Lost Road and Other Writings Preface