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    $\begingroup$ Not quite. Without the magic stone all the guards a basically random. If you ask one of them “which guard will lie”, they will not have an answer for you. It’s impossible to tell when someone will lie or tell the truth. That’s like asking “when will the next die roll land on a 3”. Whether the guard is lying or telling the truth, he will not know the answer to that. $\endgroup$
    – Amorydai
    Commented Apr 14, 2019 at 22:37
  • $\begingroup$ @Amorydai The guards know is who. See OP's comment here $\endgroup$
    – Eagle
    Commented Apr 17, 2019 at 6:32
  • $\begingroup$ He is using the stone for that question, which allows him to locate Michael. Then he asks the one who now he knows that is Michael (without the stone), which gives him a 75% chance. He can even increase the chances by asking the other two questions to Vlad and John, knowing that in both cases they probably lie. $\endgroup$
    – Hermes
    Commented Apr 17, 2019 at 7:59
  • $\begingroup$ @Akari It doesn’t matter if the guards know who is who. I know when I roll a die it will land on an even number half the time. And I always tell the truth. If someone asks me “on your next die roll will it be an even number?”. Should I say yes or no? I tell the truth, I don’t predict the future. None of the guards will know who will lie next, so the question cannot be answered. $\endgroup$
    – Amorydai
    Commented Apr 17, 2019 at 12:17
  • $\begingroup$ @Amorydai oh okay. Now I understood what you meant. Thanks! I've modified my answer. $\endgroup$
    – Eagle
    Commented Apr 17, 2019 at 13:33