All Questions
Tagged with presidential-election statistics
19
questions
7
votes
1
answer
2k
views
About how many Joe Biden voters are represented by Republicans in the House, and vice versa?
I want to know about how many people are living in places where they are represented by people of the other party. I know there were a lot of crossover districts, but that is not the point. In other ...
- 12.3k
4
votes
1
answer
271
views
Is there a correlation between a county's swing towards Democrats from 2004-2020 and increase in minority population?
In 2020's presidential election, it was shown that Joe Biden lost support from nonwhite voters, most of whom were ideologically conservative.
However, he not only still won this voting group, but he ...
- 12.3k
1
vote
1
answer
175
views
Shift by precinct NYC 2016 to 2020?
I read a tweet from the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman saying that NYC had a larger shift towards Trump than any state in the country. It shifted 7.4 points towards Trump compared to his 1st ...
- 12.3k
7
votes
3
answers
2k
views
Correlation between county-level college education level and swing towards Democrats from 2016-2020?
On the Census.gov website, there is a feature to see how much of a population has a bachelor's degree or higher in education. I want to see the county-level correlation between how much of the ...
- 3,658
3
votes
1
answer
254
views
What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?
Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset of voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
- 26k
10
votes
3
answers
528
views
How did Arizona get so close to upsetting Arnon Mishkin's "t-stat of 4" statement defending his decision team's call?
On November 3rd, 2020, Arnon Mishkin, a statistician and director of the Fox News decision team, called Arizona for Biden with ~25% of votes still uncounted. When called upon to defend his decision, ...
- 777
1
vote
1
answer
363
views
How many congressional districts produced a split result in the 2020 House and Presidential elections?
I was trying to find out more about districts who voted for one party for president and the other for House. We have data on this for 1972 to 2016. I am asking because I'm researching polarization.
...
- 12.3k
3
votes
1
answer
305
views
Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.)
...
- 3,658
2
votes
1
answer
156
views
Has a party ever picked up congressional seats in the general election and lost the presidential election in the USA?
Has it ever happened before that a major party in the USA has increased its number of seats and still went on to lose the presidency, or has losing the presidency always come with fewer House/Senate ...
- 462
9
votes
3
answers
3k
views
How can election winners of states be confirmed, although the remaining uncounted votes are more than the difference in votes?
For the US presidential elections, the Associated Press announced winners for several states although a significant portion of the votes were uncounted.
One example is Illinois where at the moment of ...
- 225
1
vote
1
answer
319
views
Longest negative popular vote bellwether US county streak?
I was thinking about negative bellwethers, which are things that generally pick the losing candidate. A positive popular vote bellwether could be New Mexico dating back to 1964. This means it always ...
- 12.3k
-1
votes
2
answers
86
views
Range of vote percentages in DC in 2012 and 2016 for president?
I want to know the range of two-party votes for the Republican presidential candidate that 95% of precincts fell in. The other 5% has slightly less or more. And, I would like to see a bar graph for ...
- 12.3k
0
votes
1
answer
163
views
What was attributed to Trump's narrower margin of victory in Texas compared to Romney?
Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Both candidates got more votes though Clinton got more of an increase.
Did Clinton come closer to winning it because of ...
- 3,658
3
votes
1
answer
133
views
What was the correlation between a US state's Hispanic population and two party vote share for Hillary Clinton?
I was thinking about what the correlation between two variables would be. Namely these are the percent Hispanic in a state and the percent non third party voting Democratic in the 2016 election. What ...
- 3,658
25
votes
2
answers
4k
views
In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: "the closest races" and "close to the tipping point"?
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
- 1,264