All Questions
Tagged with presidential-election public-opinion
18
questions
6
votes
1
answer
328
views
Did Democratic party leaning voters in the US have an alternative candidate in mind for the US presidential election in 2024?
This week there were primary elections in a large number of states in the US for the upcoming presidential election in November 2024 and it turned out that likely the two major candidates will be Joe ...
- 9,684
1
vote
1
answer
198
views
Did Macron win any of the young left-wing voters in the 2nd round of the elections?
If one reads France24's vignettes of the young, left-wing voters before the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election, you could almost swear none were going to vote Macron:
"Macron or ...
7
votes
0
answers
129
views
Is there any modeling on who would be the Condorcet winner in the French Presidential election?
The French Presidential elections use FPTP with a run off round, so directly determining the Condorcet winner is obviously impossible. But I wonder if pollsters have done any modeling to determine the ...
- 51.4k
7
votes
4
answers
5k
views
Did Biden underperform the polls because some voters changed their minds after being polled?
Polls leading up to the election showed Biden with a commanding lead, averaged between 7 and 9 points depending on your source. But the result was Biden by 4.5.
I have a theory that some Republicans ...
- 12.3k
12
votes
3
answers
713
views
Are there other US presidential elections in which the majority of supporters of the losing side said the election was stolen from them?
According to Reuters:
About half of Republicans polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Trump “rightfully won” the election but had it stolen from him in systemic fraud favoring Biden, according to a survey ...
2
votes
0
answers
92
views
What projections are there, if any, of the final margin of the election?
At this point, Biden is the president-elect, with every major network including Fox having called the election in his favor, and with a probable end result of 306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump. ...
- 16k
3
votes
4
answers
698
views
Was Trump such an underdog 4 years ago according to polls?
I keep reading that almost every single poll known to man shows that Biden is leading Trump. The only exceptions are polls from a few Republican states (like Kansas) where Trump easily won in 2016 but ...
- 2,431
2
votes
0
answers
60
views
Does a database of historic US Presidential election polling data exist?
I want to do some research concerning the historic accuracy of presidential election polling. Is there anywhere I can find a database containing historic polling data from multiple pollsters? ...
25
votes
5
answers
11k
views
Why are states easily won by Bernie Sanders in 2016 not supporting him in 2020?
In Oklahoma, for example, the results of the 2016 primary gave Sanders a 10% lead over Clinton, while in Minnesota, the gap was even larger at 23%. In his home state of Vermont, Sanders won by over 70%...
CDJB♦
- 108k
0
votes
0
answers
170
views
Panel data on US presidents electoral legitimacy
This Gallup poll from November 2016 asked the question:
" Now that Donald Trump has been declared the winner and will be inaugurated in January, will you accept him as the legitimate president, ...
5
votes
1
answer
459
views
What explains the big "D" shift in Utah in the last 4 years?
The following map kinda makes sense from the "why" perspective in most places, but one area that kind of threw me off as hard to explain was Utah experiencing major shift towards Democrats, in nearly ...
- 92.8k
17
votes
3
answers
4k
views
Did the candidacy of Ross Perot swing the 1992 presidential election?
Reading the Wikipedia article on the 1992 presidential candidacy of Ross Perot, one would get the impression that it made no difference to the outcome of the election.
However, after looking at the ...
- 5,180
4
votes
1
answer
222
views
Is the National Front's presidential election chances dependent on which party opposes it in the run-off?
In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front.
I have a suspicion that ...
- 13.5k
32
votes
1
answer
7k
views
Were there any U.S. Presidents that were very unpopular when elected?
I've read in a few news sources that whoever wins the current 2016 presidential election will already have generally low (below 45%) favorability among the general U.S. population, even among people ...
- 829
4
votes
2
answers
488
views
What are some of the "true" swing states in the U.S 2016 election cycle?
I'm talking about ones where the margin is less than 7 points, or has swung by more than 5 points in polls within the 2012 results and polls currently in that state, or is trending way too much to one ...
- 631