Not trying to undermine Israel, but perhaps willing to. China's major targets in the region are Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are both important energy sources for China, who is entirely dependent on imports for oil. By Chinese "targets" I mean countries who's support and closer ties China most desires. It was quite a coup for China to get normalized relations between Saudi and arguably their greatest existential antagonist in the region, Iran. I think optimally China would like to be seen as suceedingsucceeding where America has failed for decades while maintaining or even better enhancing, friendly relations with Israel. Israel who is also an important independent source of technology, weapons, and expertise for China. The question is whether Israel's value to China is enough to offset Iran and perhaps even Saudi's value to China? Many have made thatthe calculation over the decades estimating and equating Israel's importance to their own self interests and come away disappointing Israel. The calculators too coming away with a diminished role in the M.E. By disappointing I mean voting against Israel at the U.N. or selling arms to Israel's would be antagonists, or failing to sell arms to Israel because others in the region would find it objectionable. These are all future potential problems, not what Israel, Saudi, China, or the US are focused on right now.
WhatWhat is occurring now?
All the players in this conversation are secure in the knowledge that they have cards to play if the game get's rougher. Well maybe with the exception of Iran, who is occurringentirely dependent on China for a seat at the table. Right now?
China they are all playing the game.
China is actively trying to compete with / undermine the United States in the region by offering a different view of the future. China is presenting themselves as a power broker. Really unclear what their vision is for the region, perhaps we can assume it's withit has China in some leading role, with a firmer hand doling out edicts from Beijing? If China can be successful, it highlights the difficulties the US has had in the region and undermines the U.S globally, which other than enhanced ties with Iran and Saudi are China's primary goal in the area. Which leads to more Chinese prestige, access, and bigger role in international affairs. Soft power grab at the expense of the US. China's would love to be seen by all the players as a trusted friend. While not upsetting Iran, Saudi Arabia and if they can Israel. In that order. China's wolf warrior diplomacy tackles the M.E. Their They're going to love doing business with Israel. Color me pessimistic.
What's in this for Israel and SaudiWhat's in this for Israel and Saudi? Israel and Saudi, both traditional American allies, both sophisticated players when it comes to international diplomacy. They want to continue and enhance lucrative trade with China, but also want to rattle America's cage a little. Netanyahu has faced criticism from the US for his "restructuring" the Israeli judicial system. His announced visit to China in June is partially about responding and pushing back against that criticism.
Saudi Arabia relationship with the US has also seen recent troubles, such as the Saudi assassination of Jamal Khashoggi: the US response to that action was to criticize and de-emphasize their important relationship with Saudi. Also threatening Saudi's role on the world stage at least that's what the United States asserted a few years ago. Saudi has responded with a series of steps to push back against the US. Dropping oil production, which effectively raises oil prices as it looked to many that the US was drifting into a recession, was one. This also had the net effect of assisting Russia as stronger oil prices made an Embargo of Russian oil impossible. Saudi met with Russia prior to announcing their oil cuts. Which the United States really enjoyed. Normalizing their relationship with Iran and taking meetings with China are certainly further messages to Washington. They The message is you need us and our role on the world statestage is not yours to threaten. Perhaps you need us as much as we need you.
These were Saudi sticks. The latest action by Saudi which your question is primarily about was the carrot. Saudi and the United States agreed just the other day on the broad terms of normalizing their relationship with Israel. Now nothing is agreed to beyond the broad outline, and it's very likely nothing will be agreed to. TheThe Biden administration is even now trying to role back any optimism about an impending agreement. However, the public announcement of progress and broad agreement representsrepresent a rapprochement towith the US after some bitter last few years. The deal hammered out by Bidden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the man deemed by the U.S. to be responsible for the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey. That's also a message.
What does Israel think of all thisWhat does Israel think of all this? I don't think Israel likes Iran getting any achievement. So the Normalization with Saudi was would not have been received well. Then again given Israel and Saudi have no official diplomatic ties, Saudi is a known player to Israel. I don't know if I would go so far as say trusted, but they are a country Israel has worked with productively in the past and one who Israel understands. That they too are an ally of the US makes them even more predictable. I think Israel is watching and ready to Chimechime in when things get real; In the mean time they areBeyond minor corrections aimed at the US administration, Israel is interested in seeing what they can get from China while the party favors are still being handed out.