Timeline for Was there risk that Speaker Pelosi's aircraft could have been shot down by the People's Liberation Army?
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
11 events
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| Aug 6, 2022 at 20:18 | comment | added | Graham | @Trilarion Hey, you were arguing that everyone else's reasoning for it not happening was false, because it had happened before. Except it hadn't. So the fact it has never happened before, and every fact makes it highly improbable, certainly does push it closer to impossible than not. Completely impossible? Of course not. Lower odds than simultaneous lightning strikes on both heads of state? Quite likely. :) | |
| Aug 5, 2022 at 16:53 | comment | added | NoDataDumpNoContribution | @Graham So because something hasn't happened in the past it's impossible that it happens now? I fully agree with many things being said here except with the overconfidence that many show. One shouldn't completely rule out that China goes all in in a war between China, Taiwan and potentially the US. I think it's not very likely but also not impossible that China does one day shot down US aircrafts. It simply isn't happening until the day it is happening. | |
| Aug 5, 2022 at 8:19 | comment | added | Graham | @Trilarion That was flying over a very active warzone. As much as China are threatening action (and have been for some time), they are not actively attacking. The situations aren't similar. Non-military airplanes being shot down by a SAM battery without active military action in progress has not (to my knowledge) ever happened. Hell, even military airplanes being shot down is only a possibility if they go into the other country's airspace. And no aircraft has been shot down in the China/Taiwan conflict since 1967. | |
| Aug 5, 2022 at 1:56 | comment | added | Chris Strickland | >>"China could have sent a fighter escort to guide Pelosi's jet away from Taiwan"<< and that is really worth examining. They could have stopped Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, had they wanted to badly enough. It might have been a brouhaha, but it wouldn't have started a war and I doubt there would have been any real repercussions other than harsh words. So if they didn't do that, then they probably wanted to yell very angrily and conduct some military exercises instead, and Pelosi was more or less a convenient excuse. | |
| Aug 5, 2022 at 1:19 | comment | added | Acccumulation | @Trilarion That probably wasn't deliberately shooting down a non-military plane. The shooting was deliberate, but they didn't intend to shoot down a non-military plane; they probably did think it was a military plane. | |
| Aug 4, 2022 at 22:28 | history | edited | James K | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Aug 4, 2022 at 21:37 | history | edited | James K | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Aug 4, 2022 at 20:32 | comment | added | James K | Its was not a military aircraft flying a sortie. So no not "military" except in some technical sense. re MH17 "There are scenarios in which the fighters shoot first. There are scenarios in which a local SAM battery takes matters into its own hand." I stand by the main answer: "No, there was never a meaningful chance". If there had been (and Pelosi has better access to intelligence than us) the pilot would not have flown. | |
| Aug 4, 2022 at 19:45 | comment | added | NoDataDumpNoContribution | "However there is not a "meaningful chance" of China deliberately shooting down a non-military plane without giving it the opportunity to change course." Such things have happened in history. Malaysia Airline flight MH17 was a non-military airplane that was shot down in July 2014 without giving it the opportunity to change course, for example. | |
| Aug 4, 2022 at 18:38 | comment | added | Rick Smith | The aircraft transporting Speaker Pelosi and others is a US Air Force C-40C "a VIP transport aircraft often used to carry members of the Cabinet and Congress." In other words, a military aircraft. | |
| Aug 4, 2022 at 17:31 | history | answered | James K | CC BY-SA 4.0 |