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"China was not going to intentionally provoke war with the US over this" They might still want to provoke a war with Taiwan in the near future in the hope that the US backs out. But also then it would not be wise to start shooting at the US.
– NoDataDumpNoContribution
Commented Aug 4, 2022 at 14:23
8

It's very unlikely the Chinese would fire an air to air or surface to air missile with the goal of shooting down this plane. However they recently are alleged to have had one of their fighters deploy chaff so close to an Australian military plane that it was ingested by that plane's engine. That seems like proof that China isn't just in the business of rhetoric but are trying to edge as close as they can to an attack presumably without crossing the line. If they will order that where exactly do they think the line is? bbc.com/news/world-australia-61696973
– Eric Nolan
Commented Aug 4, 2022 at 14:36
8

@Trilarion : indeed, the most ideal scenario for China would be if they managed to provoke a war with Taiwan in such a way that the USA stays out of it. Or at least make the international community believe that the USA started it, not them. Firing the first shot at an US airplane is contrary to this goal.
– vsz
Commented Aug 5, 2022 at 6:02
1

IMHO the use of the word "posturing" is debatable since I assume you are using it in the sense (to quote Merriam Webster) of "to assume an artificial or pretended attitude". The US government pursues a policy of strategic ambiguity" regarding Taiwan. This permits maintenance of diplomatic relations with the PRC while Taiwan can obtain US weaponry to resist a Chinese invasion. This has functioned well for decades but the current Putin-allied Chinese leadership might cross the line and invade. In contrast to the Executive Branch, Pelosi judged it was time to send a clearer signal of US support.
– bvanlew
Commented Aug 5, 2022 at 10:00
@bvanlew: No, I meant 'posturing' in the sense of 'adopting a posture to convey a message'. The implication of falsehood or artificiality is misleading; the aim was to inform the Chinese government that (a) certain high-ranking members of US government are not intimidated by the possibility of aggression, and (b) there is vocal US support for an independent Taiwan. Pelosi effectively said: "Attack me if you dare, and suffer the consequences." The Chinese heard that loud and clear, which is why they are so aggressively responding; anything less would be seen as capitulation to the US.
– Ted Wrigley
Commented Aug 7, 2022 at 8:08

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