Valerii Ilnytskyi

I wormly invite foreign investors to take part in the online seminar “Poland. Investments and public aid” that will be held on May 21, 2024, at 2-4 p.m. CET. During the meeting dr Joanna Prokurat, tax partner at TPA Poland, will discuss Polish state aid and tax incentives for new and existing investments.    #tpapoland #tax #investments #publicaid #investinginpoland 

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Today’s industrial output figures surprised significantly to the downside. Volume of industrial output dropped by 4.9% y/y in May, according to the working-day adjusted figures. Continued weakness of the German industry does not imply any revival in the short run. Moreover, as Hungary had relevantly increased its capacities in EV battery production, it is particularly unfavorable that the transition process to electric cars has slowed recently. #erstegroupresearch #CEE #Hungary

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Today MDDP is hosting ULI Poland Urban Living Product Concil in our office. We'll discuss with key industry members about navigating living real estate in times of investment market downturn. A lot of insights ahead! #mddp #poland #tax #taxes #realestate

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📢I had the pleasure, together with Maciej Cwikiewicz and Grzegorz C. in Puls Biznesu, of discussing the chances of Polish #AI companies to obtain funding from #VCs and, more broadly, to build a new #flywheel for our economy. According to a recent Dealroom.co's report, the AI Core startups received 45% of all VC investment in the CEE region. This is an opportunity we cannot miss!💥 My key theses: 📌At Movens Capital, we are investing in AI-enabled companies starting in 2019 based on our previous startup experience. They distinguish the #CEE region. By 2023, more than 1,000 AI/ML startups had emerged here, raising more than USD 4 billion in funding. 📌We see a great opportunity for Polish AI startups to succeed due to their unique technological talent. Building a sustainable #competitiveadvantage is key, as illustrated by ElevenLabs, but also examples from our portfolio, such as Talkie.ai or SKY ENGINE AI. 📌 The current stagnation in the VC sector has led to lower startup valuations, benefiting funds in executing transactions. In Poland, VC fund conditions will remain favorable in the coming years, but careful selection of AI companies is necessary, as most new entities have little chance of building lasting entry barriers. Thank you, Anna Bełcik, for taking on an important topic and inviting us to talk. 👉 https://lnkd.in/dxtGvvD7

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What should be the joint future of Ukraine and Poland? At the recent European Economic Congress (Europejski Kongres Gospodarczy) in Poland I had an opportunity to discuss the processes that are already transforming the economic terrain of our region. We have a lot in common - in geographical, geopolitical and historical contexts. It is also inevitable that we are potential competitors in many economic domains. But competition is not the only option for Ukrainian and Polish economies. In my opinion, we have every chance for a constructive partnership. Strengthening each other, our states together can become a powerful player, a single economic force in the European-wide market, which will benefit to both sides. More - in my speech.

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⚪ 🔴 Inflation in Poland is about to increase, but by how much? 📈 Poland is entering a new phase where inflation is set to rise, driven by changes in household energy prices, starting from July. Apart from the clear effect of energy prices, some leading indicators suggest inflation might slow down, others, like wage and grain price trends, point to the opposite. We try to quantify the effect of the energy shield reduction on energy prices, and based on that and other leading indicators we construct a medium-term forecast. In our view, inflation could reach 4.5% by the end of this year, with a further increase early in 2025. Though our estimate is conservative, we see potential for higher inflation than expected. As a result, Poland’s central bank is holding off on interest rate cuts for 2024, with the first reduction likely in early 2025. View the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eh3CVaT3 Subscribe to other reports here: https://lnkd.in/g6zCFz3J #Poland #economy #CEE #erstegroupresearch #inflation Juraj Kotian Katarzyna Rzentarzewska

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Today, the Czech National Bank (ČNB) made a significant move by reducing its base interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 5.25%. This decision, widely anticipated by the market, didn't cause substantial shifts in the Czech koruna's value, but it did prompt investors and traders to pay close attention to the reasoning and outlook provided by Governor Aleš Michl at the press conference. This rate cut reflects the ČNB's assessment that the risk of escalating inflationary pressures remains relatively low, even with a strong U.S. dollar exerting pressure on global economies. The central bank believes the new rate of 5.25% will be restrictive enough to prevent any serious acceleration of inflation. Looking ahead, the pace of further rate cuts is expected to slow down. Earlier this year, market expectations were that the ČNB's base rate might drop to around 3% by April 2025. However, given the ongoing challenges with controlling inflation in the U.S. and the resultant strong dollar, expectations have now adjusted to a more cautious forecast of around 4%. The strong dollar, influenced by high U.S. debt levels and prolonged higher rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve, is also likely impacting the European Central Bank's decisions, potentially leading to a slower reduction in their rates as well. #MonetaryPolicy #CzechNationalBank #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #USDEUR #InvestmentStrategies #CentralBanking #FinancialMarkets #CurrencyMarkets #CZK #USD #ECB #Algoimperial #AI #AssetManagement

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📣 How Do Polish Health Tech Companies Communicate? Let's summarize it! 🔥 After 8 months of conversations and interviews with representatives of Health Tech companies in Poland, I am happy to share my insights on the communication challenges Polish startups face. The development of technology and AI solutions can undoubtedly improve our everyday lives and save time, but health remains the most important aspect of our lives. For this reason, with great interest, I and my Come Creations Group team created the HealthTech of the Week series, in which on Wednesdays we presented innovative HealthTechs that are changing the medical industry. 🚀 Congratulations to the organizations featured in the 1st edition: Talkie.ai, SDS Optic Inc., FEYENALLY, Calmsie, GeneMe, upmedic, HearMe.pl, eOS, BioCam, AILIS Care, finECRF, Locon Sp. z o.o., CliniNote, Clebre, VR TierOne, and The Linghos! 🚀 I encourage you to get to know this HealthTech better! I would also like to thank the support of experts such as Olivia BLANCHARD from Health Venture Lab, Jakub Chwiecko from the Medical Innovation Institute, and Kazimierz Cięciak from Comarch Healthcare, thanks to whom I could understand the challenges of the medical industry better. 🤝 📖 For a full summary of the HealthTech of the Week series, visit my blog. 👉EN: https://lnkd.in/d9yRTFgc 👉PL: https://lnkd.in/dTuEjraD 📅 The series will continue in September, and we are looking for more innovative projects to feature. If you know a startup at the intersection of new technologies and medicine, or if you have a project to recommend, please tag it in a comment or contact us! 🔥 Or maybe your project is the one that deserves the spotlight? Tell us about your business, and maybe your HealthTech startup will be featured in the next series! #HealthcareInnovation #Startups #Reports #HealthTechOfTheWeek #MedTech #DisruptorsinHealthcare

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Poland’s privatization launched in the 1990s had resulted in the creation of a vibrant and competitive economy that has been delivering growth well above EUs average, since then. Consecutive governments slowed down and reversed the process, increasing the role of the state in the Polish economy. Did this process alter the competitive conditions of doing business in Poland? Did it impact the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the influx of foreign investment? What was the planned role of Polish Development Fund in supporting the Polish enterprises and how it played out? I will have an opportunity to give a private-equity perspective on these issues during a panel discussion at the European Economic Congress in Katowice on May 7th at 14:00, along with Prof Leszek Balcerowicz of Civil Development Forum, the author of the Polish economic reform and Jacek Bartmiński, the Deputy Minister of State Assets Ministry. 

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With a performance of +0.47% MoM (Myrtle Equities PTEM Index), the Polish equities market showed strong resilience in light of recent economic data publications. On April 15th Główny Urząd Statystyczny, or the Central Statistical Office of Poland, announced an Inflation Rate YoY Final of 2%; coming in just 0.1% higher than the forecasted 1.9%. Additionally, the The Core Inflation Rate YoY also came in higher than forecasted at 4.6%. Our latest Myrtle Equities Poland Sector Index Series Monthly Report offers detailed insight into the performance of all Polish equity sectors. The Myrtle Equities Poland Consumer Services Sector Index (PCS) leads all sectors, by a wide margin, with a MoM performance of +3.29%. For more information, please see the attached document as well as our website at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gXwvFcXf #poland #stocks #finance #financialmarkets #equities #Index #market #investing #Inflation #CPI

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📢 Exciting news! My colleague has just published a thought-provoking research paper on an important topic that affects all of us. In the current economic climate, the question of whether to spend or save has become increasingly relevant. This is particularly true for households in the CEE region, who are now experiencing consistent real wage increases. The latest Special report of ERSTE Research delves into the baseline growth story for CEE this year, highlighting the economic expansion driven by household spending. However, it also reveals a concerning trend of dissolving savings during the inflation years, alongside an emerging willingness to save, as indicated by questionnaire-based data. Don't miss out on the insights presented in our report! 🔗 Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eVqUrxna For more informative reports like this, make sure to subscribe to our channel. Stay updated with the latest trends and developments in the CEE economy. 📌 #CEE #economy #ersteresearch #savings 👥 Katarzyna Rzentarzewska , Juraj Kotian , Jakub Čery

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NBP Governor Glapinski dropped a hawkish bombshell on Polish households, corporates and investors: “We can forget about cutting interest rates when inflation rate goes up significantly. Such a possibility may not arise until 2026 at the earliest, once inflation begins to fall.” Under normal circumstances such an explicit forward guidance would have been appreciated by analysts and economists, including yours truly, if it wasn’t for a nagging feeling that Glapinski’s hawkish tone may not be based solely on the latest official projection for inflation, but on something else. Let me explain. Governor Glapinski spent considerable time during his press conference defending previous decisions made by the MPC - mainly that the tightening cycle started at the right time and the pace of it was adequate to rein in rapidly accelerating inflation. By implying that in his view it would be a mistake to cut interest rates next year, as widely expected by the market, Glapinski could be working on his defence strategy. The governing coalition is determined to put him before the State Tribunal over allegations that he politicised the NBP when the Law & Justice party was governing. Glapinski could claim that the Civic Platform wants to dismiss him for being reluctant to lower interest rates when inflation is officially projected to remain above the target until 2026. Next year’s presidential elections could be an important factor as well. To fully implement various policies the governing coalition needs its candidate to replace President Duda when his second term ends in 2025. If monetary policy remains tight for significantly longer than anticipated, GDP growth could be sluggish. This would provide the Law & Justice with an ammunition to criticise the Civic Platform and its coalition partners. Governor Glapinski based his hawkish view on the latest official projection for inflation seen rising in the second half of this year and staying above the official target throughout 2025 until re-aligning with it in 2026. It’s important to recall that the inflation projection available when the majority of the MPC shocked investors by slashing the policy rate by 75bps in September followed by 25bps cut in October ahead of parliamentary elections hadn’t justified monetary policy easing. Those two rate cuts were widely viewed by investors as being mainly motivated by politics, which seems to play an important role once again. A rate cut next year cannot be completely excluded just yet. Governor Glapinski is just one out of 10 members of the MPC. We have to wait for other policymakers to express their views to be able to judge how many of them agree with Glapinski that interest rates should be kept unchanged until 2026. Investors will be hoping that the majority of MPC will put aside political preferences and who appointed them when they decide on interest rates, something that Governor Glapinski seems struggle to do, although he should lead by example.

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The outlook is promising for Poland, with recent political leadership changes resulting in better prospects for structural reforms and an improved relationship with the EU. In our latest ‘Notes from the road’, we visit the country and discover an upbeat mood on the ground. Read more here: https://bit.ly/3Vgvo0e #NotesFromTheRoad #EmergingMarkets

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What is the current crypto market situation? 🔎 Despite recent turbulence in the market, it is still possible to believe that the bull run is not over. We learned this from FXMAG's editor-in-chief Dawid Augustyn's YouTube interview with our product manager Jacek Kubiak. Here are the key points: 1/ Bitcoin and the Halving Cycle ⛏ - Historical Halving Cycles: Each halving cycle has shown some patterns but behaved differently each time. Bitcoin's price does not always align with halving predictions. - Current Valuations: Based on historical data, Bitcoin is currently valued higher than expected, suggesting either a higher bottom or an overestimation influenced by ETF approvals. - Future Price Predictions: A model predicts Bitcoin's price post-halving to reach approximately $200,000 by the end of next year. 2/ ETFs on Cryptocurrencies 🏦 - Current and Future ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have been introduced, and there's anticipation for Ethereum and Solana ETFs. - Regulatory Uncertainty: Ethereum ETF approval is still pending, and the regulatory environment remains cautious and selective. - Potential Impact of ETFs: If Ethereum ETFs get approved, it could open the door for Solana ETF and other major crypto, potentially enhancing market diversification. 3/ The Altcoin Market 📈 - Current State of Altcoins: There's skepticism about many altcoins, as they often lack practical utility and are seen as speculative investments. - Bitcoin’s Dominance: Despite criticism of Bitcoin's older technology, it continues to maintain a strong market position compared to newer projects. - Speculative Nature: The altcoin market is heavily driven by speculation and hype, with a significant risk of pump-and-dump schemes. 4/ Regulatory Environment ⚖ - MICA Regulations: Upcoming regulations (MICA) are intended to bring more order and safety to the cryptocurrency market but may push smaller businesses into the gray market. - Preparedness for Regulation: Companies that are prepared for regulatory changes will likely fare better, while those unprepared may struggle. 5/ General Advice for Investors 🤝 - Caution Against Pump-and-Dump: Investors should be wary of schemes designed to inflate and then rapidly deflate crypto values. - Focus on Established Cryptocurrencies: Beginners are advised to start with well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum before exploring the broader market. Concluding remarks? 📝 The crypto market is in a dynamic phase, with potential regulatory and market changes ahead. That's why investors should remain cautious, stay informed about regulatory developments, and know the speculative nature of the market. Watch the full video here (in PL): https://lnkd.in/dtc_BHqg

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The unresolved challenges facing the Polish private equity and venture capital industry are the future challenges facing our economy. Together with the other participants (Paweł Borys, Jacek Byrt, Piotr Kedra, Anna Wnuk, Grzegorz Zawada) of the panel “The private equity and venture capital market in Poland development strategy” we will try to come up with a recipe for the most pressing problems of the sector. See you at #efcongress! #ekf #ekf2024

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Yesterday, I was surprised by the shape of Czech progressive taxation spread across income levels: https://lnkd.in/eerqCY82 I went to check how it was versus last year. Below is comparison. It is clearly visible the effect mostly on 3x-4x income population with diminishing impact after 4x mark. 2023 still included the solidarity tax of extra 8% on income above 4x wage, but with the conjunction of ceiling on social tax, this distribution seems more systematic/fair(?). #Taxation #Czechia #Strategy

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Will we see more liquidity in polish power in the future given their power consumption is larger than that of countries such as The Netherlands, Belgium and Hungary

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Ready-made management company with a hedge fund in the Czech Republic - The company is new, there was no activity - There are no requirements for the citizenship of the director/founder - There are no requirements for professional skills and education of management company managers Included in the price: - Full consultation before purchasing an AMC - Evaluation of an investment plan or existing portfolio of assets - Development of a qualified investor fund structure with benefit-cost analysis - Re-registration of the company to new owners - Change of director to a representative of the new owners - Preparation of documents for the CNB - Representation of the fund in the CNB - Providing a draft package of documents for concluding agreements with AMC investors Re-registration time frame: 3-4 business days from the date of receipt of all documents from the new owners + Nominee service is optionally available. Price: 62 000 EUR

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