IfOne such argument is the Doomsday argument which is taken seriously by a number of academics. But more simply, if we look at the modern population trajectory, it's something of an exponential curve. What would probability theory predict about the graph in the future?
It seems there are three basic possible trends:
- continuation of exponential growth ad infinitum
- plateau
- a bell curve
If #1 were true, then we would never exist, since the future always has a greater probability density than the present and the past. If #2 were true, then we would also never exist, for the same reason as #1. Therefore, something like #3 is necessary to explain our existence.
To maximize the probability of our experience, we most likely are on or near the cusp of the bell curve. This means that a mass extinction event for humanity looms in the near future.
One might object and say we are at the top of the curve, but the downward slope could be gradual instead of abrupt. However, in that case the expected position would be already on the downward slope, and we wouldn't expect to see what we see today that we are on the upward slope.
So, what do you think about this reasoning? Does probability theory indicate a very large portion of humanity is about to die off?
