These are an independent, data-driven, evidence-based series of reports that the NCRI and select partners release regarding the spread of hostile ideological content. One of the main goals of these reports is to handle sensitive social issues around the spread of ideology in an objective and data driven way. We aim to facilitate honest conversations about the spread of political deception, hate and manipulation, especially on social media.
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12/5/23 – The Anti-Transparency Portal: A Financial-Analytic, Data Driven Review of Obscurities, Inconsistencies and Failures of Compliance Facing Section 117 Reporting of Foreign Gifts and Donations Received by American Colleges and Universities
Recent implementations by DoE 117 reporting after September 2020 make vast amounts of data impossible to fully and accurately resolve.
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11/6/23 – The Corruption of the American Mind: How Foreign Funding in U.S. Higher Education by Authoritarian Regimes, Widely Undisclosed, Predicts Erosion of Democratic Norms and Antisemitic Incidents on Campus
A massive influx of foreign, concealed donations to American institutions of higher learning, much of it from authoritarian regimes with notable support from Middle Eastern sources, reflects or supports heightened levels of intolerance towards Jews, open inquiry, and free expression.
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11/2/23 – Bots and Inauthentic Coordinated Propaganda Networks Extensively Targets Celebrities and Influencers Online Amidst Ongoing War
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies, social media platforms are increasingly awash with bots and coordinated propaganda. Celebrities and influencers, given their expansive reach, frequently find themselves caught in these digital campaigns. Orchestrated online tactics—originating potentially from individuals, groups, or state actors—are increasingly seeking to leverage these well known personalities and accounts to…
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7/31/23 – Bot Driven Gold Rush – Unmasking the Role of Inauthentic Social Media Activity on the Crypto Market and Beyond
The FTX scandal comprises the single largest cryptocurrency scandal since the inception of digital currencies. Valued at 32 billion dollars, cryptocurrency giant FTX collapsed completely, primarily as a result of a liquidity crisis in November of 2022, and when the company’s operations came under scrutiny, federal investigators pressed charges for market manipulation and the mismanagement…
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7/27/23 – Anti-Zionism, Antisemitism, and the Polarization Pendulum
The belief that Jews have a right to self-determination in the land of Israel has invited objection since before Israel’s founding in 1948. Often couched in familiar antisemitic accusations of Jewish supremacy, bloodlust, and covert dominance, a narrative of heroic resistance to these antisemitic themes paints anti Zionism with hues of social justice and solidarity,…
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7/5/23 – Ireland’s Emerging Cyber Crisis: An Online Decentralized Movement for Nationalist Violence and Anti-Immigration/Muslim Attacks
In recent years, Ireland has seen an influx of immigrants and refugees during an ongoing housing crisis fueled by labor shortages. The majority of those affected by the housing crisis are Irish nationals. A campaign of real-world mobillizations has arisen in wake of the refugee and housing crisis, with hundreds of protests in Ireland between…
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5/11/23 – The “Synagogue of Satan”:Uniting Extremist Groups in the Revival of an Antisemitic Libel Online
Mentions of “synagogue” on Twitter have doubled on average since October 2022, with surges in negative sentiment for comments containing the term during the same period. The “Synagogue of Satan” is an antisemitic libel, accounting lately for nearly 20% of all comments mentioning the term “synagogue” on Twitter and is often accompanied by calls for…
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5/3/23 – Reckoning with Reconquista: A Spanish, Alt-right Network Glorifying Historical Crusader Memes to Amplify Incitement Against Muslims and Immigrants
In recent years, Spain has seen the growth of both Anti-Muslim sentiments and incidents and violent Islamic extremist attacks, with home grown radicals making up a significant number of the attackers. Following a violent Islamic extremist attack against two churches in Spain, on January 25th, 2023 NCRI detected a spike in anti-Muslim rhetoric on Twitter…
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4/11/23 – Inauthentic, Cyber Activity From Khalistani Extremist Accounts Precedes and Amplifies Attacks on Hindu Temples and Indian Government Buildings
NCRI assesses that attacks against both Hindu houses of worship and Indian government buildings are likely to come under direct threat internationally, which may merit a heightened defensive posture by law enforcement officials and social media platform trust and safety teams; this assessment is supported by the recent escalation of unrest in Punjab.
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3/30/23 – The Rise of Computer-Generative Enabled Hoaxes and Malicious Information in the Wake of Mass Shootings
Recent hoaxes surrounding mass shootings suggest that easily accessible online tools can be leveraged for malicious purposes, deepening the crisis of polarization in US society, increasing the risk of violence, and impacting public safety operations. Technology is evolving rapidly, including AI chatbots and image generation tools that may create future hoax manifestos and computer-generated calls…
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2/28/23 – Analysis of the “National Day of Hate” and the Dangers of Amplifying Low-Signal Extremist Content
The recent “National Day of Hate” event planned by an obscure Iowa-based white nationalist group received little attention (roughly 20 likes) within its own subcultural ecosystem on Telegram, yet received widespread amplification from mainstream media and organizations such as the ADL. There is little publicly available evidence to suggest larger white nationalist groups engaged with…
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2/8/23 – #Twittertakeover: How the Musk Acquisition Became a Launchpad for Gen-Z Neo-Nazis, Ye, and Widespread Antisemitism
Extremist elements have viewed Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter as an opportunity to rejoin Twitter en masse, responding to a number of signals including Twitter’s recent decision to reinstate the accounts of white supremacists.
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1/17/23 – Memes, Misses, and Mobilizations: An Analysis of the 2021 Hamas/Israel Conflict
In this report, we juxtapose the delivery of hashtag campaigns with the delivery of missiles and real-world protests in a single ecosystem of reactivity. The aim of this report is to examine the relationship of outbursts of Middle East. conflict, rises in antisemitic and antizionist rhetoric, social justice outrage, anti-Israel protests and real-world antisemitic incidents.
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11/16/22 – Cyber Social Swarming Precedes Real World Riots in Leicester: How Social Media Became a Weapon for Violence
Throughout late August and September 2022 violence between Hindu and Muslim communities overwhelmed Leicester, UK. The activities included mass mobilizations, vandalism, and physical attacks against both Muslims and Hindus.
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8/29/22 – Online Communities of Adolescents and Young Adults Celebrating, Glorifying, and Encouraging Self-Harm and Suicide are Growing Rapidly on Twitter
A community promoting self-harm (specifically, “cutting”) is circulating graphic and bloody depictions of self-injury on Twitter. These data appear to be the tip of the iceberg. The NCRI has identified a number of rapidly growing, and in some cases overlapping, Twitter communities dedicated to the glorification of eating disorders, mass shootings, and more.
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7/28/22 – “Hunger is our Only Hope”: The Russian Disinformation EcoSystem and Online Conspiracy Communities Shifting Focus to Looming Food Crisis
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has exacerbated global food insecurity and Russian media, Kremlin Proxy sites, and pro-Putin trolls are amplifying narratives to pin blame on Western countries and international aid agencies for the looming food crisis. Further, online conspiracy communities and influencers linked to QAnon are notably shifting from COVID conspiracy theories to food crisis disinformation.
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7/11/22 – Anti-Hindu Disinformation: A Case Study of Hinduphobia on Social Media
Platforms, civil society organizations, and media are largely unfamiliar with Hinduphobia. This paper seeks to rectify this state of affairs and deploys a data-driven approach, consisting of large-scale quantitative and machine learning analysis of a wide variety of social media data, to understand anti-Hindu disinformation and propaganda, which drives Hinduphobic discourse.
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3/4/22 – On the Diseconomy of Memes: Stonks, Crypto and the Wager Against Democracy
Information overload, which creates risks in markets, is rapidly leading to a diseconomy of memes, which demonstrates its alpha in hype, narrative and propaganda as a replacement to investment based on value. Memes, and Web communities especially, which have negatively impacted social conversation and civility, now impact financial conversation and market information integrity.
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2/9/22 – Sudden Massive Spike in Twitter Activity for “Free Aafia Movement” Preceded Attack on Congregation Beth Isreal
Previously dormant campaign activated by U.S. nonprofit and network of self-identified Pakistani Twitter accounts. The Network Contagion Research Institute used open-source data from social media platforms to analyze the dynamics of how and by whom the campaign was reactivated.
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12/9/21 – Forecasting Distrust: A Nationwide Analysis of the Climate of Vaccine Hesitancy
Widespread institutional distrust along with fears of Covid vaccine side effects create continued hesitancy to take the Covid vaccine. This reluctance hampers efforts to fully vaccinate the U.S. population and manage the Covid-19 pandemic. Inspired by distinct, regional trends in disinformation and misinformation, this continued reluctance to vaccinate, combined with dangerous new Covid variants, is…
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7/23/21 – The Future of Disinformation Operations and the Coming War on Brands
Disinformation has long been understood as a means of political warfare. Now it is being used in ways that damage Western corporations and economies. The actors and methods employed to influence elections and spread conspiracy theories in an effort to polarize the United States electorate are now being leveraged for economic warfare. Additionally, an economic…
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3/11/21 – A CONTAGION OF INSTITUTIONAL DISTRUST: Viral Disinformation of the COVID Vaccine and the Road to Reconciliation
This is a moment of truth for our democracy. As unprecedented political violence from the right invades our capitol, as mass rioting from the left scars downtown areas in major U.S. cities, and as conspiracies spread like wildfire, the true enemy of our democracy has finally made its identity clear. Many thought it was the…
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1/9/21 – NCRI ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPITOL RIOTS: Violent Actors and Ideologies Behind the Events of January 6, 2021
On January 6th, President Trump’s “Save America” rally was attended by a majority of peaceful protestors. However, a sizable crowd left the speech delivered by the President and overwhelmed law enforcement officials in order to break into the U.S. Capitol building during the certification of the electoral vote. These events saw law enforcement evacuate lawmakers,…
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12/15/20 – THE QANON CONSPIRACY: Destroying Families, Dividing Communities, Undermining Democracy
The authors of this report collaborated on a rapid assessment and analysis of QAnon because of our growing concern about the threat it poses to the nation. This threat can be divided into three key categories: creating and amplifying cultural and political divisions, introducing and spreading disinformation and anti Jewish conspiracy theories, and mobilizing and…
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12/15/20 – Antisemitic Disinformation: A Study of the Online Dissemination of Anti-Jewish Conspiracy Theories
The disinformation by which Jews have been presented throughout history as the scourge of humanity, antisemitic disinformation, has been expressed in terms of threats to religion, science, power, dominant ethnic groups, nation-states, and in more modern iterations, as threats to human rights and racial justice. With the advent of social media, these ancient, “viral” conspiracy…
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9/14/20 – Network-Enabled Anarchy: How Militant Anarcho-Socialist Networks Use Social Media to Instigate Widespread Violence Against Political Opponents and Law Enforcement
Three tactics characteristic of extremist online communities have allowed them to become influential in recent years: 1) they use memes as propaganda, 2) they employ sophisticated communication networks for both planning and recruiting, making use of both fringe and private, online forums, and 3) they organize militias, and inspire lone wolf actors for violent action.
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COVID-19, CONSPIRACY AND CONTAGIOUS SEDITION: A Case Study on the Militia-Sphere
Following on the heels of a state-by state lockdown of social and economic activity put in place to attempt to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic, we stand in the midst of historical nationwide violence and riots over the George Floyd incident. Together, these events cause social dislocation on a scale not seen…
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WEAPONIZED INFORMATION OUTBREAK: A Case Study on COVID-19, Bioweapon Myths, and the Asian Conspiracy Meme
Violent, ethnic hate is exacerbated instantaneously by outbreaks of weaponized information during episodes of viral pandemics. Even as intelligence and law enforcement chart new waves of attacks against Asian citizens, they remain challenged to understand how social media empowers the self organization of these massive waves of violence from weaponized information.
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CYBER SWARMING, MEMETIC WARFARE AND VIRAL INSURGENCY: How Domestic Militants Organize on Memes to Incite Violent Insurrection and Terror Against Government and Law Enforcement
Even as law enforcement and intelligence begin to map how social media can rapidly radicalize individuals to commit acts of domestic terror, they remain challenged to understand how social media empowers entirely new groups to self-organize radicalized militant cells and incite violence. The ability of extremist groups to self-organize creates a new and poorly understood…
