Series onNew Space, episode 2
The Delicate Politics of New Space Nations
Space is more accessible than ever. Any country can now consider having its own program. But strategies vary widely from one nation to another, as ego, politics, and nationalism get in the way. This is episode 2 of our series on New Space (ep.1 is here)
Take a look at the headlines this summer. Massive flooding in Europe, Turkey, China, and Southeast Asia; wildfires and heatwaves in North America; temperatures reaching an historical record of 48°C in Siberia. As The Economist puts it, “there is no safe place in a +3°C world”. More than ever, there is a need for information to anticipate the consequences of this new era of repeated extreme meteorological events. It involves collecting more data to survey the morphing planet and to anticipate its effects on food supplies, rising sea levels, ice-sheet depletion, methane release, human and economic disasters.
So far, the best way to monitor Earth is from space.
Space has now its own Moore’s law. At least in principle. Thanks to a vibrant private sector fueled by large amounts of capital, the cost of putting a kilogram in orbit is dropping steadily. The putting together of multi-purpose payloads is now largely commoditized, with scores of companies churning out satellites almost like cars, using off-the-shelf components and sensors whose performance increases at an unprecedentedly fast pace. They rely on a red-hot satellite launching sector, led by SpaceX which puts in orbit a hundred “birds” at a time for third-party customers (see the first episode of the series).
In theory, there should be no obstacles between us and widespread democratization of space. Ten years ago, only a handful of countries were able to fund a space program. Today, more than 70 countries have one. They range from full asset ownership with in-house manufacturing to leasing capabilities of imaging or data collection, to third-party operators.
However, a closer look shows large disparities, as some nations are able to optimize cooperation and maximize the bang for their buck, while some others are lagging.
To get a better view on this, I spoke to Tala Atie, senior analyst at PwC and co-author of a reference study on emerging space nations:
“First of all, when we talk about emerging nations, it is extremely important to distinguish between the developed ones and the developing ones. This is not the same playing field.
Many in the developed group have realized that with satellite technologies, they are now able to improve their agricultural yield, manage natural disasters, improve communications, including in remote areas. There is no doubt that it benefits society as a whole, with access to telehealth or e-education services.
Everything in this sector has become way more accessible. The know-how is no longer concentrated in the hands of a small group of countries. Now you can share lots of resources, you can rely on the private sector, which lowers the cost of going to space. In many countries, you no longer see a dominance of the public sector. Today, it acts as an enabler for private companies.
At the same time, other countries in the developing world that still exploit the paradigm of the New Space, like Nigeria or Gabon, try to develop small satellites. Some don’t have spacecraft, but they start using data that are available commercially”.
National space policies fluctuate between relying largely on “resources as a service”, or having full ownership of assets. Sometimes, other factors set in, such as the idea of sovereignty or sheer political ego (which usually correlates with the level of the autocracy of the regime).
In the PwC study, Tala Atie mentions the case of Egypt, which, mostly for political and strategic reasons, decided decades ago to build its own program. It led to some success, with Egypt becoming the first African country to have its own direct TV satellite in 1998, but also to some failures, with the loss or malfunctioning of several satellites. As a result, the government had a hard time retaining engineers, who were disappointed by these failures. Now the country’s space program seems back on track, essentially thanks to active international cooperation with Russia and China — Beijing is using its space expertise as a powerful vector of influence in several countries (more on this in a future episode of the series).
When I asked Tala Atie for an example of a well thought out strategy among emerging space nations, she mentioned the United Arab Emirates:
“Collaboration on expertise is absolutely critical. The UAE has a super-smart strategy in which they collaborated with the European Union, South Korea, and several others. But in doing so, they were able to retain the know-how they acquired and built upon it. In 2018, the UAE launched its first satellite completely manufactured at home. [In February 2021, the UAE became the fifth country to send a probe to Mars and it also became the first Arab country to have an astronaut on the ISS].
I think the UAE has the smartest strategy in that regard as they collaborate largely with others while creating their own industry, training and retaining engineers, building research centers through collaboration and partnerships. For instance, they send their engineers to research institutes abroad and welcome foreign ones as well. They have the financial power and use it wisely to develop an ambitious multi-disciplinary space program.
By contrast, if a country chooses to outsource everything, it might not get the full benefit of accessing space, like building an industry able to produce components, data management capabilities, infrastructure and eventually designing satellites. Again, this balance is essential; it has to be given and take”.
It will be interesting to see how things will unfold between emerging nations able to organize fruitful cooperation, along with technology transfers, while others will remain in a state of dependency from the Western world.
History provides a harrowing precedent, with previous periods of competition in exploration leading to decades-long looting of natural resources in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeast Asia. Enormous value was extracted while the exploited countries were unable — and sometimes prevented — from gaining autonomy in their resource management. This is a cautionary tale emerging space nations should keep in mind.
— frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com
In the next episode of the series (scheduled for August 9), we will talk about the funding of new space companies that raised $7 billion in 2020, twice the amount of the previous year.
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