Ukraine Update June 29
BONUS: Guide to Foreign Policy with Russia!
Politics
Russia’s allies are evaporating one by one as the benefits of being Russia’s friend become more of a liability. Putin faces several problems on this front.
First, secondary sanctions are cutting off trade partners, even China, whose “eternal friendship” Putin was so keen on. When confronted with a choice between trading with the “West” or with Russia, the choice is easy for nearly every country except Iran and North Korea.
Second, Putin formed new alliances in his quest for a multi-polar world, but after two and a half years, these new partners have gotten to know Russia a little better and are rethinking their stance. Hungary is the lone standout in Europe, as even Slovakia’s Fico is selling weapons to Ukraine but putting on airs that he is “leaving it up to the private sector.”
Third, Russia has an extensive network of bribed politicians, from Mike Johnson and the MAGA wing to right-wing parties in Europe, dictators in Africa, and elsewhere. The problem is that politicians who can be bribed are always in it for themselves, and the benefits of Russian cash are fading away.
Fourth, Russia has failed to live up to commitments, including to defend Armenia from Azerbaijan as required by the CSTO Treaty, leading to Armenia starting the process to exit the organization that Russia started to compete with NATO. India is tired of delays and has noticed that Russian…
