Ukraine Update July 04

War Crimes, Defection Assistance, Secret Plans, Chill Out

Dylan Combellick
8 min readJul 4, 2024

Is this Winning?

Oh my GOD! The Russians are advancing on all fronts!!! Well, I mean, not near Kharkiv, where they are retreating. And the Dnepr river has stopped them in the south. But in Donetsk, they are advancing! Below are the gains over the last two years of fighting. This is a repeat of World War I — trench warfare, where assaults are incredibly costly, and the lines don’t change much. If we zoom in really closely on this map, we can make the Russian gains look significant, but it is telling that, from this level, the only labeled city that Russia has taken in two years is Bakhmut, and that cost them 50,000 men at least and an attempted Wagner coup. So, let’s keep perspective here, folks. The lines in the sand are not moving much and aren’t going to until one or the other army has a command and control level collapse or the country (countries) supporting each side suffers a political or economic collapse.

While conscription in Ukraine is finally picking up again, the quality of Russian troops is falling. Earlier, we saw a video from an entire unit of men who were taken from a hospital after having been wounded on the front, and they were sent back to an assault division. Below is drone footage of such men in combat positions, not evacuating…

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Dylan Combellick

Retired analyst, Russian linguist, and New START inspector, father of 3, living in Uzhgorod, Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/@DylanC78