Ukraine Update July 03
Donation Update, Hidden Losses, Nothing to See Here
Hidden Losses
There is very sketchy information in this war regarding the loss of manpower. Both sides have reason to exaggerate their victories and minimize their losses to the public, but there is something to be inferred from the OSINT-verified vehicle losses. These accounts are also woefully incomplete, as we know when the OSINT teams can afford to purchase commercial imagery and find that they didn’t record massive amounts of destroyed vehicles. They only see the drone footage, and they only see the drone footage that gets published. Most things destroyed by any other means will not get counted. Oryx counts are slightly higher than Perpetua’s, as they have a larger team.
Given the Russian propensity for using tanks as infantry assault vehicles, the loss of every armored vehicle includes two or three drivers and another five to twelve infantry. Every loaf carries at least two men, sometimes a full load of eight, or sometimes ammo or food. Every golf cart carries four to six. Every motorcycle, one or two, sometimes even three, with a sidecar.
The same infantry multipliers on tanks don’t apply to Ukraine, as they don’t use tanks as infantry transports—at least, I haven’t seen them doing that on the assault. However, they still apply to vans and Soviet equipment. Marders, Bradleys, MaxxPros, and Bogdans have significantly higher crew survival rates.
