UPDATED 6:15 p.m. ET: The hurricane-force low pressure center is intensifying rapidly northwest of Ireland, with a swirling cloud pattern visible on satellite imagery moving toward Iceland. The storm is projected to peak in intensity with a minimum central pressure of between 927 and 933 millibars on Wednesday morning.
This could be strong enough to bring it into the top 5 strongest storms on record in this part of the North Atlantic.
“It might get into the top 5, but I highly doubt it’ll break the record,” said Dave Kosier, a meteorologist with the Ocean Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, in an interview with Mashable.
According to the center's records, the all-time strongest storm in this area occurred on Dec. 15, 1986, and that had a minimum central pressure of 900 millibars. The second-strongest storm occurred in January 1993, with a pressure of 916 millibars.
The surge of mild air into the Arctic is already beginning, with a forecast high on Wednesday at the North Pole of close to the freezing mark of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0 degrees Celsius.
One of the strongest storms on record to form in the North Atlantic is set to rock Iceland with winds above hurricane force by Wednesday. It's also expected to drive a new batch of rain and wind to flood-weary areas of the UK.
The storm could even set an all-time record for the strongest storm to develop in this part of the North Atlantic.
The storm will be a meteorological marvel, intensifying so rapidly that the term "bombogenesis" is perhaps an understatement to describe its intensification. Aiding its explosive development is a jet stream on steroids, with winds of 230 miles per hour roaring across the North Atlantic at aircraft cruising altitudes.
The strong jet stream means that flights from New York to London were as short as five hours and eight minutes on Monday, according to data from FlightAware, whereas return trips were logging closer to seven hours due to the headwinds.
Meteosat-10 infrared animation w/Atlantic low pressure system starting to rapidly intensify while moving quickly NE. pic.twitter.com/Ikg58wCSoO— NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) December 28, 2015
By Wednesday morning eastern time, the storm may have a barometric pressure of about 920 millibars, or 27.17 inches, while it is parked near to or on top of Iceland. In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. For comparison, Hurricane Sandy had a minimum central pressure of 945.6 millibars, or 27.91 millibars when it set intensity records as it came ashore along the New Jersey coast on Oct. 29, 2012.
Powerful storms are common near Iceland and Greenland during the winter, aided by the wintertime jet stream and the contrast between the relatively mild Gulf Stream ocean current and chillier waters to the north. However, in a region famous for ship-sinking waves and relentless blizzards, this storm may stand out for its sheer intensity.
12Z operational GFS model slightly faster than most 12Z GEFS members w/intense ~920mb low thru Iceland at 06Z 12/30. pic.twitter.com/CEhaDlzTkZ— NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) December 28, 2015
Freak Arctic warming event
One of the strangest impacts of the North Atlantic storm will be its effects on the Arctic. On the east, northeast and eventually northern side of the massive circulation, southerly winds will pump mild air all the way from the tropical Atlantic toward the North Pole.
Computer model projections are showing temperature anomalies of up to 60 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year near the North Pole on Wednesday.
So, instead of being around minus-20 to minus-30 degrees Fahrenheit, the air temperature at the North Pole could eclipse the freezing mark of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, possibly approaching the 40-degree mark (above zero). This would make it milder there than in much of Canada and the U.S.
Large temperature fluctuations of 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit are relatively common in the Arctic, where shifts in sea ice cover can make a huge impact on local air temperatures, but a 50 to 60-degree temperature anomaly is extreme.
According to meteorologist Bob Henson of WeatherUnderground, there have only been three instances since 1948 when temperatures have reached or exceeded the freezing mark at the North Pole during December, but none during the months of January through March.
This temperature spike could influence the ice buildup during the winter, which is becoming more critical now that global warming is melting so much sea ice during the spring, summer and fall months.
This animation shows a top level view, looking straight down on the Arctic, showing the anomalously mild air starting out near Greenland and sweeping north to the North Pole.
It could also temporarily impact native populations' hunting and fishing activities by making it unsafe to operate, or by driving populations out of their typical habitat.
This animation shows how the storm could help push a northward pulse of unusually mild air toward the Arctic, shown in bright red colors near Greenland. Another, weaker low pressure area over the Arctic Ocean, along with strong areas of high pressure across Central Europe and northwest Russia, will assist in this rare mild surge toward one of the coldest regions on Earth at this time of year.
Waterlogged UK to get to know Winter Storm Frank
The UK Met Office has named the portion of the storm that will whip across Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales late Tuesday and into Wednesday as Winter Storm Frank. In reality, this storm is part of the energy circulating around the tremendously strong storm over Iceland.
The UK will be on the storm's warm southeastern side, and will be buffeted by strong winds from the southwest as well as high waves and periods of rain. The areas most at risk for additional rainfall appear to be central and northern England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, according to computer model projections and forecasts from the UK Met Office.
Computer models show a long string of moisture extending from the UK to south of Bermuda on Wednesday, like a vein transporting water vapor.
Tues-Wed intense hurricane-force cyclone to track right over Iceland (930 mb) w/warm sector bombarding U.K. pic.twitter.com/DjHWvLzdd2— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 28, 2015
The UK doesn't need anymore rain, as it has been dealing with historical flooding in central England in particular, including the cities of Manchester, York and Leeds. December is already the wettest such month on record in some locations in England, as well as the mildest such month.
The Met Office is predicting that western parts of the UK could see winds gust as high as 80 miles per hour, particularly in Northwest Scotland, as high seas batter west and northwest-facing shorelines.
Amber "be prepared" warnings for heavy rainfall have been issued for some areas, with Northern Ireland, west and southwest Scotland, along with northwest England and Wales, likely to see the worst of the rain and wind through Wednesday.
Some parts of Cumbria, which has already been hard hit by flooding this month, could see another 150 millimeters of rain, the Met Office predicted. If the heavy rain shifts further south than predicted, it could significantly aggravate historic flooding in Central England.
"Everyone should be aware of the potential for disruption in places from further flooding and the impacts of the gales to transport, especially in areas such as southern and central Scotland and Cumbria where Amber 'be prepared' warnings are in place," Will Lang, Met Office chief meteorologist, said in a statement on Monday.
The storm is forming during Earth's warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean combining with manmade global warming to push temperatures to levels unseen since reliable records began in the late 19th century (and very likely long before that).