Expert Views
Trinity of impossible? Budget 2024 achieves fiscal prudence, investment & consumption boost: Nilesh Shah
For investors, fundamentals have improved with fiscal consolidation, with investment focus continuing and hopefully better employment generation, growth will be sustained. The valuation impact of the Budget on the market will be far more than the diluting effect of increased taxation. Overall, the India growth story continues and instead of tips, do SIPs, Nilesh Shah
FM has come out with a S.I.P budget, says Navneet Munot. Here’s why
Navneet Munot, HDFC AMC’s MD & CEO, labels the budget as sustainable, inclusive, and prudent (S.I.P). Key aspects include fiscal consolidation, infrastructure spending, long-term tax changes, digital infrastructure, next-gen reforms, housing, rural economy, employment, market reaction, SEBI's macro risk measures, and impacts on discretionary income, government allocations, and real estate.
Hike in STT very small; more regulatory changes to curb speculation in the offing: Ashish Chauhan
Ashish Chauhan thinks the hikes in STT and capital gains tax are lower than what most experts had expected and once people realise that the government wants people to invest more in the markets and capital formation – not in the speculative part, but in the investment part – they will start investing in the stock market.
Overall a very prudent Budget; don't see any negative for manufacturing: Shashank Srivastava
By the way, MSMEs also the credit guarantee scheme as also the Mudra loan provision, which is the measures taken there, should also help the manufacturing sector. One important thing which I also mentioned which is that there are really no big bang things that you can see in the budget, but the FM has really focused on the fundamentals and on the macroeconomic stability for both the markets as well as the overall fiscal consolidation
Focus to improve agriculture productivity will play into rural consumption story: R Mukundan, Tata Chemicals
India can be the food basket for the world and I think that focus to improve agriculture productivity will play into rural consumption story which has been a bit of a worry for many companies and this effort by government to focus on agriculture and the eastern part of India especially in many ways, I think the agriculture productivity can be pushed up even more and the focus on east also from that perspective is extremely positive.
It’s a great Budget; a lower cost of capital over time leads to more capex and faster growth: Prashant Jain
Prashant Jain of 3P Investment Managers praised the Budget for equitable taxation, capex growth, and fiscal progress. Noting job creation, Rs 1 lakh crore for urban housing, and taxation reviews, he emphasized the ease of doing business and the small midcaps market correction. Despite high risk-reward in manufacturing and defense, Jain sees continued potential in PSUs and power sectors.
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Market Movers
Growing shift to promote people to go to new tax regime: Hemal Zobalia, Deloitte India
In some cases, they completely exempt capital gains on considering as something that gives impetus to growth. But today, if you are in FM's position, you need to raise revenues from somewhere. If you are going to give push to infrastructure, to R&D, I guess this was an area where she felt that she can raise more revenues for.
Market has matured; won't be badly damaged by slight rise in capital gains tax: Porinju Veliyath
Market expert Porinju Veliyath highlights market resilience to the capital gain tax increase, stressing growth-focused investments. The budget's emphasis on digital infrastructure supports growth. Investors should remember only capital gains are taxed, he said and said agriculture investments will address rural stress and help job creation. Veliyath called the budget a non-event for markets.
Markets may consolidate at current levels; it will be business as usual from tomorrow: Sunil Singhania
We started with no expectations in terms of changes in capital gains and therefore, this small increase in capital gains tax is definitely not welcome. And the other thing is, there are some uncertainties regarding the buyback tax. Obviously, STT has got increased. I am hoping that it is only for speculative transactions, not for delivery transactions, because the whole purpose of STT was in lieu of capital gains tax.
Capital gains tax and STT hikes leading to market hangover; more steps to curb speculation expected: Vijay Kedia
Vijay Kedia, MD of Kedia Securities, discussed the 12.5% LTCG tax, SEBI’s speculation curbing, and hike in STT . He finds these changes reasonable and expects market corrections. The initial reaction settled quickly, suggesting market acceptance. Short-term holdings minimize the impact, while Budget clarity and ongoing corrections are expected. He says these were bound to come.
Budget's focus on real economy to turbocharge economic growth: Nilesh Shah
I clearly believe that this budget focuses a lot on the real economy and that is something which probably yet is getting kind of ignored in context of some of the tax hikes.
A fabulous budget but still not 10 out of 10, says Swaminathan Aiyar. Here's why
Swaminathan Aiyar praises Nirmala Sitharaman's budget for reducing fiscal deficit, increasing capex, cutting long-term capital gains tax, and supporting FDI. Despite benefits to the middle class and political satisfaction, it leaves labor laws and pollution issues unaddressed. Aiyar gives it a 7 out of 10, noting the absence of Manmohan Singh-like policy changes.
Budget expectations: Hoping for some tweaks in personal taxation, market direction in a non-event budget: Porinju Veliyath
“There are pockets of froth, manipulated stocks, and managed stocks, and with the low liquidity, some stocks are kept very high. So, small first-time investors in the market should be extremely careful about this aspect. Do not go by tips in the market or just because of stock price movement, momentum investing, growth, those kind of things,” says Porinju Veliyath.
Budget 2024: Expecting incremental shift towards RevEx & continued thrust on capex: Ravi Dharamshi
Ravi Dharamshi expects the Budget to stress revenue expenditure, capex, rural distress, PM Awas Yojana, energy transition, and private sector capex. With state elections approaching, supply chain shifts, potential new PLI scheme sectors, and measures to boost the middle class, he predicts government actions will stimulate the real estate cycle and increase market volatility.
Budget needs to deliver for markets to move higher: Sandip Sabharwal
They should be bold and give around one-and-a-half lakh crores of relief to individual taxpayers because the multiplier on this is very high. So, one-and-a-half lakhs crores of tax break can actually lead to ultimate incremental consumption boost of nearly three times of that, four-and-a-half lakh crores.
Budget timing to add volatility in market amid mixed earnings season: Vikas Pershad
Derivatives of consumption especially in the rural areas or beyond the metros that is something that we were watching for, that is something we were positioned for also. We have switched much of our auto positioning as an example over the past four to six quarters from four-wheelers to more to CVs and to two-wheelers.
